Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
 

That's an awesome looking splitflow pattern. If a basin wide nino produces that pacific pattern this winter, it will be a very good winter. The NAO will cooperate in spurts

I just did my winter forecast. 

 

Its gonna be a depressing winter. Featuring game's of "on the border of 32 degrees" and "find your car because you cant see anything because because of this mist/fog" and last but not least "holy smokes, guess today's high 60's and 70's?"  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pack, check out the euro strat maps. Strat is definitely getting "bothered" at least. Especially 50hpa. Nice kidney bean trying to bust in half. GEFS is pumping the heights over the pole late in the run as the pv shifts towards hudson. Every day that goes by, early Dec looks more and more wintry in the east. 

 

The big question is...will this be transient or is early met winter starting to show it's hand a little? When all this stuff started showing up I definitely assumed transient...I'm not so sure anymore...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But that's how we roll in the SE!

:lol:  Indeed

 

33 and rain is below normal.

Good catch  :wub: 

 

Pack, check out the euro strat maps. Strat is definitely getting "bothered" at least. Especially 50hpa. Nice kidney bean trying to bust in half. GEFS is pumping the heights over the pole late in the run as the pv shifts towards hudson. Every day that goes by, early Dec looks more and more wintry in the east. 

 

The big question is...will this be transient or is early met winter starting to show it's hand a little? When all this stuff started showing up I definitely assumed transient...I'm not so sure anymore...

I'm going with transient   :D 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Love those north south line ups.  Everybody gets the train...no dregs for anyone!  T

Just hope something like that sets up but with cold enough air in front and real cold air behind happens sometime(s) during this Nino winter - no T'nado and w/ frozen precip to  the Gulf~

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure this should go here or in the fall pattern thread, but it needs to be watched. 14 days out, but the models are starting to hint at something for the first week of December. 

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=11&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=00&fhour=348&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pack, check out the euro strat maps. Strat is definitely getting "bothered" at least. Especially 50hpa. Nice kidney bean trying to bust in half. GEFS is pumping the heights over the pole late in the run as the pv shifts towards hudson. Every day that goes by, early Dec looks more and more wintry in the east. 

 

The big question is...will this be transient or is early met winter starting to show it's hand a little? When all this stuff started showing up I definitely assumed transient...I'm not so sure anymore...

 

I like the overall look of the models in the LR. It very much reminds me of last year with the overall setup. Except this go round we'll be in a strong Nino. Way too early to be hitting the panic button. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pack, check out the euro strat maps. Strat is definitely getting "bothered" at least. Especially 50hpa. Nice kidney bean trying to bust in half. GEFS is pumping the heights over the pole late in the run as the pv shifts towards hudson. Every day that goes by, early Dec looks more and more wintry in the east.

The big question is...will this be transient or is early met winter starting to show it's hand a little? When all this stuff started showing up I definitely assumed transient...I'm not so sure anymore...

12z was fairly bullish but following HM/Sam Lillo's messaging yesterday doesn't promote a sense of optimism for a SSWE this winter, well atleast not in Dec-Feb. I still think Feb should produce.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pack, check out the euro strat maps. Strat is definitely getting "bothered" at least. Especially 50hpa. Nice kidney bean trying to bust in half. GEFS is pumping the heights over the pole late in the run as the pv shifts towards hudson. Every day that goes by, early Dec looks more and more wintry in the east. 

 

The big question is...will this be transient or is early met winter starting to show it's hand a little? When all this stuff started showing up I definitely assumed transient...I'm not so sure anymore...

 

I hate to bring up 09-10 but it more or less did the same thing with above normal Oct-Nov then in the first week of Dec into the icebox we went and that Dec was the snowiest Dec ever here with 4 or 5 different events with the 12" Dec 25/26th being the capstone. I recall most predictions saying that winter or at least that Dec was going to be warm as well.....

 

Now that early Dec is getting into the more reliable 2-3 week time frame it does appear if the early calls for a above normal Dec are in trouble at least for the first few weeks of Dec....you hit on the big question though is it a 3-4 week flip or a indication of the overall pattern for Dec-Mar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z was fairly bullish but following HM/Sam Lillo's messaging yesterday doesn't promote a sense of optimism for a SSWE this winter, well atleast not in Dec-Feb. I still think Feb should produce.

 

It's uncommon for SSW events to happen before mid Dec at the earliest. And honestly, I tend to not think/worry about them much. Even when they happen it doesn't mean we're guaranteed blocking. They often do nothing as far as sensible wx is concerned. 

 

I was mostly pointing out the fact that the strat pv is getting bothered and pushed around. This in itself can help deliver cold air into the mid-latitudes. It happened a lot last year. The strat was bend don't break the entire season but when it got squeezed there was definitely a good response with cold air delivery. Especially in Feb of course. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like the overall look of the models in the LR. It very much reminds me of last year with the overall setup. Except this go round we'll be in a strong Nino. Way too early to be hitting the panic button. 

 

Yea, me too. December is a "guaranteed" dud for the most part based on every single seasonal I've read. But it's never that simple. I think the bigger takeaway from what we are seeing now is a general lw pattern that doesn't have the really bad stuff that takes a long time to get the hell out of the way. Certainly looks like cold will focus out west first (too far to really strike us flush when it moves) but then what? Does it shut off with more zonal flow or does it progress forward towards the east being ground zero? Hard to say. We at least look to have seasonal stuff to start Dec. Hard to complain about that. 

I hate to bring up 09-10 but it more or less did the same thing with above normal Oct-Nov then in the first week of Dec into the icebox we went and that Dec was the snowiest Dec ever here with 4 or 5 different events with the 12" Dec 25/26th being the capstone. I recall most predictions saying that winter or at least that Dec was going to be warm as well.....

 

Now that early Dec is getting into the more reliable 2-3 week time frame it does appear if the early calls for a above normal Dec are in trouble at least for the first few weeks of Dec....you hit on the big question though is it a 3-4 week flip or a indication of the overall pattern for Dec-Mar.

 

Weather is a fickle beyotch. It does what it wants and surprises way more often in the long range than the other way around. 09-10 will probably remain a unique analog. That ridiculous and crazy persistent blocking pattern is very rare. The only thing that seems relatively easy to predict with mod or stong +enso is a wet southern tier and more often than not it extends up the east coast. Back loaded winters for the east coast (other than NE I suppose) is probably not much more than a byproduct of temp climo. We rain more in Dec and we snow more in Feb. Happens almost every year. But add in more juice and the odds increase but the luck index is always in play and required with every single storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea, me too. December is a "guaranteed" dud for the most part based on every single seasonal I've read. But it's never that simple. I think the bigger takeaway from what we are seeing now is a general lw pattern that doesn't have the really bad stuff that takes a long time to get the hell out of the way. Certainly looks like cold will focus out west first (too far to really strike us flush when it moves) but then what? Does it shut off with more zonal flow or does it progress forward towards the east being ground zero? Hard to say. We at least look to have seasonal stuff to start Dec. Hard to complain about that.

Weather is a fickle beyotch. It does what it wants and surprises way more often in the long range than the other way around. 09-10 will probably remain a unique analog. That ridiculous and crazy persistent blocking pattern is very rare. The only thing that seems relatively easy to predict with mod or stong +enso is a wet southern tier and more often than not it extends up the east coast. Back loaded winters for the east coast (other than NE I suppose) is probably not much more than a byproduct of temp climo. We rain more in Dec and we snow more in Feb. Happens almost every year. But add in more juice and the odds increase but the luck index is always in play and required with every single storm.

are temps on the east coast not warmer on avg in Feb than Dec ? In Atlanta feb is the warmest winter month on avg and yet Feb is often the month with the best chance for snow.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

are temps on the east coast not warmer on avg in Feb than Dec ? In Atlanta feb is the warmest winter month on avg and yet Feb is often the month with the best chance for snow.

 

Regardless of statistical averages between the 2 months, a lot of other things become more favorable later in the winter for snow and/or ice storms. Ocean temps, snow pack in Canada and the northern tier of NA etc really help for locations in the MA-SE. CAD is important up and down the coast from MD to GA. It's hard during Dec for good favorable CAD because of the ocean temps.

 

It always takes anomalous cold for frozen precip south of 40N. Even up my way the average high temp in the cold heart of winter is still in the low 40's. It takes a 10°+ below normal air mass at the surface for accum snow.  Later in winter the conditions are much more favorable for hampering modification as cold continental air (or hopefully polar! lol) works it's way south. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regardless of statistical averages between the 2 months, a lot of other things become more favorable later in the winter for snow and/or ice storms. Ocean temps, snow pack in Canada and the northern tier of NA etc really help for locations in the MA-SE. CAD is important up and down the coast from MD to GA. It's hard during Dec for good favorable CAD because of the ocean temps.

 

It always takes anomalous cold for frozen precip south of 40N. Even up my way the average high temp in the cold heart of winter is still in the low 40's. It takes a 10°+ below normal air mass at the surface for accum snow.  Later in winter the conditions are much more favorable for hampering modification as cold continental air (or hopefully polar! lol) works it's way south. 

 

Bob, I agree with this, but it's a little misleading in a sense.  You don't actually need -10F temperatures aloft (850) in the heart of winter to cash in; where daytime heating is not a factor.  A more reasonable comparison would be what sfc temperature below average on a typical CLOUDY winter day do you need?  Our average daily temperature is impacted greatly by daytime thermal heating at lower levels, which would have far less impact in the instance of a nearby low pressure (and cloud cover)

 

A typical cloudy winter day in our area has a high temperature of what, like 35-36 degrees?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...