Winter 15-16 Discussion

[FallsLake]

Yeah, I would say 6 inches or more. We have had at least one good one the last two winters. I guess I was like you and was hoping for more last winter with all the hype going into it. Looks like we will be lucky to get one this winter. Of course, what actually happens will be anyone's guess. The analogs and long range forecasts were pretty useless last winter.

I guess we would call this the Big Wolf:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

 

It would be nice to get this every year.

[Brick Tamland]

I guess we would call this the Big Wolf:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

 

It would be nice to get this every year.

 

Or once every 15 years or so.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Yeah, I would say 6 inches or more. We have had at least one good one the last two winters. I guess I was like you and was hoping for more last winter with all the hype going into it. Looks like we will be lucky to get one this winter. Of course, what actually happens will be anyone's guess. The analogs and long range forecasts were pretty useless last winter.

Try living in Atlanta where there hasn't been a 6 inch snow storm since 1983 !

[FallsLake]

Try living in Atlanta where there hasn't been a 6 inch snow storm since 1983 !

You know it really is strange that Atlanta doesn't get more snow. You're not really that much further south and you have some elevation.

 

I would venture to say being on the tail end of CADs(..with higher 850 temps) and being too far west for developing storms has to be the answer.

 

But still you would think at least every five years there would be a storm bombing out in the northern gulf that crosses northern Florida that would give you a good hit.  

[Brick Tamland]

You know it really is strange that Atlanta doesn't get more snow. You're not really that much further south and you have some elevation.

 

I would venture to say being on the tail end of CADs(..with higher 850 temps) and being too far west for developing storms has to be the answer.

 

But still you would think at least every five years there would be a storm bombing out in the northern gulf that crosses northern Florida that would give you a good hit.  

 

I think it is strange that the Triangle doesn't get more snow than we usually do. You'd think we would be far enough north, not too far east, but far enough to get the lows bombing off the coast to help us out. It seems rarely do the conditions come together at the right time, though.

[Cold Rain]

I think it is strange that the Triangle doesn't get more snow than we usually do. You'd think we would be far enough north, not too far east, but far enough to get the lows bombing off the coast to help us out. It seems rarely do the conditions come together at the right time, though.

 

Unfortunately, lows only bomb off the coast 7-10 days out.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

You know it really is strange that Atlanta doesn't get more snow. You're not really that much further south and you have some elevation.

I would venture to say being on the tail end of CADs(..with higher 850 temps) and being too far west for developing storms has to be the answer.

But still you would think at least every five years there would be a storm bombing out in the northern gulf that crosses northern Florida that would give you a good hit.

I mean I understand why Atlanta doesn't get much snow. We are at a low latitude, but I would think the 1,000' elevation would help. You would think once every 10 years we would get a widespread 6" snow. I'm not talking about just the northern suburbs, I'm talking everyone from cartersville to griffin.

[Brick Tamland]

Unfortunately, lows only bomb off the coast 7-10 days out.

 

Yeah, and it is weird how things have to come together just right here. We always seem to be on the line if we don't have a low bombing off the coast. You'd think it wouldn't be that hard where we are located for things to come together right more often than they do.

[mackerel_sky]

Unfortunately, lows only bomb off the coast 7-10 days out.

I wouldn't care I we never had a coastal bomb again!

[griteater]

It's a good thing Raleigh doesn't get more snow bombs since this is what happens when they occur  

 

[mackerel_sky]

It's a good thing Raleigh doesn't get more snow bombs since this is what happens when they occur

That's what ATL looks like when it snows 1/2 inch!

[superjames1992]

I think it is strange that the Triangle doesn't get more snow than we usually do. You'd think we would be far enough north, not too far east, but far enough to get the lows bombing off the coast to help us out. It seems rarely do the conditions come together at the right time, though.

 

I don't know, really.  Our areas average more snow than a lot of areas at our latitude.  NC does a lot better snowfall-wise than TN (outside the mountains), for example.

[superjames1992]

That's what ATL looks like when it snows 1/2 inch!

 

Raleigh, too.

 

http://raleighskyline.com/content/2006/11/21/the-half-inch-of-snow-that-paralyzed-raleigh/

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20050119/

 

 

[FallsLake]

 

It's a good thing Raleigh doesn't get more snow bombs since this is what happens when they occur  

 

 

 

There was a reason for that fire:

[Brick Tamland]

I don't know, really.  Our areas average more snow than a lot of areas at our latitude.  NC does a lot better snowfall-wise than TN (outside the mountains), for example.

 

I guess my thinking is our proximity to the coast would help us out more.

[FallsLake]

I guess my thinking is our proximity to the coast would help us out more.

And it does. That's why we get more snow than Atlanta. We are actually in a great place for our latitude (...as James said).

[FallsLake]

Brick, Here's a dramatic example of how being close to the Atlantic (..with developing storms) can help us:

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif

[Brick Tamland]

Oh, I am sure it helps. I just thought it would help more often and it wouldn't be so hard to get snow here. Seems we have to thread the needle 99% of the time to get any. 

[SN_Lover]

Oh, I am sure it helps. I just thought it would help more often and it wouldn't be so hard to get snow here. Seems we have to thread the needle 99% of the time to get any. 

 

Yup, got to have all the ingredients come together! Hopefully that happens this Winter!! 

[Met1985]

Regarding Asheville (airport), the average snowfall over the last 30 years there is 10.5 inches. Here's how the recent years stack up going back to the big 09-10 winter:

09-10: 39.2

10-11: 20.2

11-12: Trace

12-13: 0.5

13-14: 9.8

14-15: 13.3

Thanks for this grit. Kind of goes with what I was talking about. Obviously we average much more snow than Asheville does but a pretty good depiction.

[Met1985]

It's a good thing Raleigh doesn't get more snow bombs since this is what happens when they occur

Lol seriously.

[griteater]

Here are a few of the reasons why I don't have angst over the bigger ninos...

 

 

 

 

For ENSO since 1950, I used the ONI and MEI...and for ENSO prior to 1950, I used the MEI.EXT and Eric Webb's reconstruction of the ONI

[Met1985]

Here are a few of the reasons why I don't have angst over the bigger ninos...

For ENSO since 1950, I used the ONI and MEI...and for ENSO prior to 1950, I used Eric Webb's reconstruction of ONI and the MEI.ext

Nice grit. Good information.

[Met1985]

Wsi put out a good read about potential blocking. For some reason I cannot copy the link and post it.

[superjames1992]

Wsi put out a good read about potential blocking. For some reason I cannot copy the link and post it.

 

Yes, interesting.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

[FallsLake]

Yes, interesting.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

Of course this sounds great to me.... --> Strong Nino with a southern flow and blocking. But remember all the great winter forecast last year. Maybe this research is on to something but blocking has been the hardest thing to predict to this point. Personally I'm going to temper my expectations and be happy with normal values (for cold and snow).     

[Brick Tamland]

Yes, interesting.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

 

 

Very nice!

 

So, the natural question to ask now is “Does big summer blocking typically portend blocking risks the following winter?” A quick analysis of the data suggests that the answer is an emphatic “yes”. In fact, of the 10 “blockiest” Julys, all 10 exhibited negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) values in aggregate during the following winter (below), including 3 of the 4 blockiest winters since 1950 (1962-63, 1968-69, 2009-10).

[Met1985]

Yes, interesting.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

Thank you James!

[packbacker]

Here are a few of the reasons why I don't have angst over the bigger ninos...

http://s12.postimg.org/eynjet5zh/CLT_gif

For ENSO since 1950, I used the ONI and MEI...and for ENSO prior to 1950, I used the MEI.EXT and Eric Webb's reconstruction of the ONI

Looking at the strong+ Nino's if looks like we won't have the warm west and cool east like the past 2 winters. So it looks like Pac won't be helping this winter. Fairly consistent with warmest anomalies in the north/central US and coolest in the S/SE. Small sample set though.

Curious to see when/if the NE Pac cools.

[packbacker]

Yep....

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/page-25#entry3648169

 

I also am noting that the AO/EPO/NAO arc have been falling for 10 years now (though you'd never know it last year ha); their longer term, multi-decadal collection goes along a 20 or so year periodicity, where they tend to be positive and negative alternately. Now is entering a negative period.

 

 

RDU/Snow discussion - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45523-central-nc-snowy-times-ahead/#entry3301351