snowlover91 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I agree with griteater. I don't think we'll see anything close to his forecast for Nov...best case is something similar to the image at the top of this page Pack posted, or 1957 which I'm hopeful for. I'd probably change that map with 2+ anomalies over the east. However, these +++anomalies over the east will be hard to overcome and I think we'll have to have a pretty decently sized trough on the east to do so, not just cold making it's way east but a complete pattern flip by the 20th that needs to get underway right now. The CPC outlooks for until the 26th is hot from the plains east and that cold air mass will likely not make it here until December, if it comes. I don't see a drastic pattern change this month that can greatly overcome the ridge over the east. It will take a while due to the + anomalies in the pacific. Cosgrove's image is a large trough over the central US and too cold for a lot of people and normal for the midatlantic. So to recap I think 1957 is still possible with the help of a possible tank in the EPO, but it will be close to a miracle-esque result to overcome the domination of the ridge. The thing to take notice of his map is the theme of a cold west and warm Canada. Both of those things are what we've seen so far. The central US should end at or below normal with what the GFS/Euro and ensembles are showing near the end of the month. For us here in the SE I would expect the anomalies to end up around +2-4F. If we get a cold shot like the GFS has been hinting at around Thanksgiving then those warm anomalies will quickly modify. Also it's key to read his newsletter since he explains in better detail what he expects. He called for a warm first half of November and cooling the second half. His map is for the general pattern the entire month, and we are through the first half only and it's been warm east vs cold west. That's why I think the second half will be cooler and by the end of November pretty close to his map. He already has the cold west/sw correct and the warm Canada theme. The colder end to November will balance the anomalies out to look much closer to the chart and forecast. Then December should be quite mild with pacific air flooding the nation. Interesting that you should mention 1957-58 as that's one of his top analogs. I believe 1972-73 was another top one as well as 1987-1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Unless you follow Larry Cosgrove, who imo is the best seasonal forecaster and the only person I follow for winter forecasts. He did quite well last year and has been spot on so far this year. He has a Facebook page and Google group, a lot of my forecasting technique is based on his which is somewhat "old school" but works very well in the 4 years I've followed him. Might want to take a look at his page, some great info and he looks at all factors when analog forecasting. No.....just.....no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 No.....just.....no Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Why not? Didn't Cosgrove go for wall to wall cold last winter from December to March? Not sure his methods are much better than anyone else especially since that ice debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Why not?LC really doesn't have a clue when it comes to the SE. He never has. The ice debacle proved that. Btw....his temp forecast (here) will bust. We will cool down, but it will be close to normal and won't wipe out the extreme positive anomalies.I sooo wish I had saved that whole thread! Those were the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 LC really doesn't have a clue when it comes to the SE. He never has. The ice debacle proved that. Btw....his temp forecast (here) will bust. We will cool down, but it will be close to normal and won't wipe out the extreme positive anomalies. Maybe we can bring LC back here to wish a foot of snow for the SE. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Didn't Cosgrove go for wall to wall cold last winter from December to March? Not sure his methods are much better than anyone else especially since that ice debacle.His winter forecast called for below average temps November through March, that is correct. I can't post all the maps as it would take up far too much space but go back and read his newsletter then compare it with what happened. The only month he missed was December, it was warm across the whole nation versus his forecast of warm west and cooler east. He called February to be our coldest month, which it was. His call of below average east of the Rocky Mountains verified quite well. Here is the map of the average values from November through March. Check his forecast out then go to the noaa site and look at actual anomalies. He got November, January, February and March correct with December the only miss. I'd say that's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Maybe we can bring LC back here to wish a foot of snow for the SE. Lol. I'm pretty sure he will never stop by the SE forum again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 His winter forecast called for below average temps November through March, that is correct. I can't post all the maps as it would take up far too much space but go back and read his newsletter then compare it with what happened. The only month he missed was December, it was warm across the whole nation versus his forecast of warm west and cooler east. He called February to be our coldest month, which it was. His call of below average east of the Rocky Mountains verified quite well. Here is the map of the average values from November through March. Check his forecast out then go to the noaa site and look at actual anomalies. He got November, January, February and March correct with December the only miss. I'd say that's pretty good. Forgot he mentioned November which makes no sense being a fall month. If the EPO is in our favor like last winter it could get quite interesting around here. Easy to time events with an active southern jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm pretty sure he will never stop by the SE forum again Keep in mind I said he's one of the best seasonal forecasters, not short term lol. I don't follow him for short term forecasts, I use models like the Euro and RGEM for those events. I follow him for his knowledge on winter forecasting long range. Last winter he issued a forecast in late October and got every month right except one, December. I've yet to see another seasonal forecaster who can accurately predict November-March in advance and get 4 out of 5 right. If he misses on November for our area but gets the other 4 months right again would you not be impressed?GAStorm, he includes November since many areas to our north start seeing their first snows in this month, it's not technically winter but it's the month leading up to it. He always does November-March as the winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Keep in mind I said he's one of the best seasonal forecasters, not short term lol. I don't follow him for short term forecasts, I use models like the Euro and RGEM for those events. I follow him for his knowledge on winter forecasting long range. Last winter he issued a forecast in late October and got every month right except one, December. I've yet to see another seasonal forecaster who can accurately predict November-March in advance and get 4 out of 5 right. If he misses on November for our area but gets the other 4 months right again would you not be impressed? GAStorm, he includes November since many areas to our north start seeing their first snows in this month, it's not technically winter but it's the month leading up to it. He always does November-March as the winter forecast. Still unusual for anyone to do that regardless of location. Do you know of anyone else doing that? Anyway, getting 4 out of 5 right is definitely good but I don't know too many people that went against the cold outlook last winter. Seemed like a safe bet with the Nino and snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Keep in mind I said he's one of the best seasonal forecasters, not short term lol. I don't follow him for short term forecasts, I use models like the Euro and RGEM for those events. I follow him for his knowledge on winter forecasting long range. Last winter he issued a forecast in late October and got every month right except one, December. I've yet to see another seasonal forecaster who can accurately predict November-March in advance and get 4 out of 5 right. If he misses on November for our area but gets the other 4 months right again would you not be impressed? GAStorm, he includes November since many areas to our north start seeing their first snows in this month, it's not technically winter but it's the month leading up to it. He always does November-March as the winter forecast. Nope.... I wouldn't be impressed. Every dog has their day....lol I've been around here for a very long time and while there are some very good mets here, not one of them has ever been consistently right when forecasting seasonal outlooks every year. It just doesn't happen. LC (among others) really only concentrate on the MA/NE. This is the SOUTH. Everything has to be perfect for us to enjoy frozen flakes falling from the sky, so take what is said with a grain of salt, and let the finer details work their magic. After all.....if it were easy then everyone would do it...wait....here they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Nope.... I wouldn't be impressed. Every dog has their day....lol I've been around here for a very long time and while there are some very good mets here, not one of them has ever been consistently right when forecasting seasonal outlooks every year. It just doesn't happen. LC (among others) really only concentrate on the MA/NE. This is the SOUTH. Everything has to be perfect for us to enjoy frozen flakes falling from the sky, so take what is said with a grain of salt, and let the finer details work their magic. After all.....if it were easy then everyone would do it...wait....here they do Well I guess we will just have to wait and see how this winter shakes out. This year is especially difficult due to the intense strength of the El Niño and diversity of forecasts out there. LC actually lives in Texas however and does focus a good bit on the south when there are legit threats, the problem is we don't have that many lol. I think this winter will be pretty fun in January and February for those in the south, the waiting part will be hardest. GAStorm, I don't know of anyone else including November but I have no problems with it. Im excited about this winter and ready for January since that's when the fun should begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z GFS brings the cold by T-giving week in the long range. 10s/20s lows around here. I like the idea of the big cold dump out west and then gradually beating down the eastern ridge as a GOA ridge develops. So far this November is not at all like '97. At this pt in time we were socked in with cold all across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 GAStorm, I don't know of anyone else including November but I have no problems with it. Im excited about this winter and ready for January since that's when the fun should begin! I would love to see it come early especially around Christmas time. Always makes the holidays that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z GFS brings the cold by T-giving week in the long range. 10s/20s lows around here. I like the idea of the big cold dump out west and then gradually beating down the eastern ridge as a GOA ridge develops. So far this November is not at all like '97. At this pt in time we were socked in with cold all across the country. we are progressing like a typical Nino year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Forgot he mentioned November which makes no sense being a fall month. If the EPO is in our favor like last winter it could get quite interesting around here. Easy to time events with an active southern jet. November is a colder month than march so if he's gonna mention march he might as well mention November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 November is a colder month than march so if he's gonna mention march he might as well mention November. March is more common to mention though. I haven't seen anyone include November in a winter forecast before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 we are progressing like a typical Nino year. 12z Euro @168. Baffin block.. it's going to get cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 November is a colder month than march so if he's gonna mention march he might as well mention November.March is about 100 times snowier than November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z GFS brings the cold by T-giving week in the long range. 10s/20s lows around here. I like the idea of the big cold dump out west and then gradually beating down the eastern ridge as a GOA ridge develops. So far this November is not at all like '97. At this pt in time we were socked in with cold all across the country.[/quote Been hoping all late summer/fall we would be able to see some ridging show up in GOA by mid November If not currently atleast on modeling. It's a big key if we want the door to winter unlocked. Hopefully it has staying power and it's position is right on the spot. Sounds like alot to ask for but easier to accomplish than getting the nao to lock in negative. How bout the Jamstec. Looked just like dare I say 2009/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm sorry but I've just got to say, every time I see GAStorm post, I read "GAS Storm". That honestly should be my username. It will be nice, the earlier our +PNA arrives, but as long as we get it locked in by January I'm good. If it's not there in the models by that time, that to me starts to eat in to the 8 weeks of best potential the SE has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm sorry but I've just got to say, every time I see GAStorm post, I read "GAS Storm". That honestly should be my username. It will be nice, the earlier our +PNA arrives, but as long as we get it locked in by January I'm good. If it's not there in the models by that time, that to me starts to eat in to the 8 weeks of best potential the SE has. Lol. I was wondering if anyone would ever say that. I just changed my display name to make it look like Georgia and not gas. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z Euro @168. Baffin block.. it's going to get cold Nice. It builds back the ridge over the SE @204...haha. I saw on the 00z energy swinging in at the end of the month with the block in place, that could help break down that ridge some for sure, however transient it is. Further runs could get colder, I just wonder how much cold there is to tap this early and how far south will it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro is poking at the PV too, strat is waking up, that would be interesting if it keeps building on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Lol. I was wondering if anyone would ever say that. I just changed my display name to make it look like Georgia and not gas. Lol. ha, lol. You didn't have to change it! I got a kick out of it. Never saw it mentioned so I just wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy! With greenland blocks showing up and hints of the pacific trying to get right, watch December be our month and January and Feb torch...just to teach us a lesson that nobody knows what the heck is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 March is about 100 times snowier than November! I was just thinking the same thing. There's no comparison to the snow we have gotten in March, and any flakes we might get in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 ha, lol. You didn't have to change it! I got a kick out of it. Never saw it mentioned so I just wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy! With greenland blocks showing up and hints of the pacific trying to get right, watch December be our month and January and Feb torch...just to teach us a lesson that nobody knows what the heck is going on. We can only hope. After all, the odds of us having 5 straight torchy Decembers has to be very low. We are due for a cold December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Nice. It builds back the ridge over the SE @204...haha. I saw on the 00z energy swinging in at the end of the month with the block in place, that could help break down that ridge some for sure, however transient it is. Further runs could get colder, I just wonder how much cold there is to tap this early and how far south will it go? The 12z EPS is ridiculous, it's like a 09/10 -NAO, and such a huge change run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 ha, lol. You didn't have to change it! I got a kick out of it. Never saw it mentioned so I just wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy! With greenland blocks showing up and hints of the pacific trying to get right, watch December be our month and January and Feb torch...just to teach us a lesson that nobody knows what the heck is going on. I would be quite shocked if December ended up being our month. If we do see the PV split we could be in for a great period of winter weather for sure. December would be a bonus if we saw it come early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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