Winter 15-16 Discussion

[Brick Tamland]

Good read from the NC climate office..."Along with the active subtropical jet stream and southerly storm track courtesy of El Niño, we expect to have favorable upper-level patterns for wet and wintry weather across the Southeast US for at least part of this winter."

 

 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=163

 

The sentence before that is good, too. 

 

Our confidence is high that the PDO and the PNA will remain in similar configuration -- a positive phase -- as we've observed since last year. 

[buckeyefan1]

Good read from the NC climate office..."Along with the active subtropical jet stream and southerly storm track courtesy of El Niño, we expect to have favorable upper-level patterns for wet and wintry weather across the Southeast US for at least part of this winter."

 

 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=163

'we expect'     Mother nature will do what mother nature will do, and I'm not believing it until I see blocking, split flow and a diving vortex from canada at the same time  

[BullCityWx]

Good read from the NC climate office..."Along with the active subtropical jet stream and southerly storm track courtesy of El Niño, we expect to have favorable upper-level patterns for wet and wintry weather across the Southeast US for at least part of this winter."

 

 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=163

 

I reckon they are smarter than all of us so I better be a little more bullish.

[Jon]

Anyone know how to generate maps like this from this month? Like 11/06-11/11?

 

The daily website I'm using isn't getting that view when I select USA.

 

The best I can do is this

[Cold Rain]

Nobody wants to see maps that look like that, Jon. If they don't have blue colors over the SE, don't bother man!

[BullCityWx]

Although, reading about the Euro weeklies on twitter, it sounds like they are a full on torch(excepting thanksgiving), at least until week 4. 

[packbacker]

Anyone know how to generate maps like this from this month? Like 11/06-11/11?

 

 

The daily website I'm using isn't getting that view when I select USA.

 

The best I can do is this

 

Like this?

[packbacker]

For 57...

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

 

 

[buckeyefan1]

Although, reading about the Euro weeklies on twitter, it sounds like they are a full on torch(excepting thanksgiving), at least until week 4. 

Shhhhhh........talk like this will upset the winter wagon and we'll have jumpers early    

[Jon]

For 57...

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

Thanks. Kinda...I was looking for the more detailed sectors of the US with anomalies like you get when you analyze months or years together...but short term instead. It probably can't be done. I was trying to see if 57 had a similar start to Nov but it looks like it didn't. It did have a similar end though from 11/15/57-11/30/57 to what we're seeing so far this month.

[Jon]

Nobody wants to see maps that look like that, Jon. If they don't have blue colors over the SE, don't bother man!

 

Although, reading about the Euro weeklies on twitter, it sounds like they are a full on torch(excepting thanksgiving), at least until week 4. 

That's fine. I don't want the weeklies showing anything until at least midway through December honestly.

[Jon]

Interesting...1957 the top analog on Levi's experimental seasonal analog page. I didn't even see this before, now I'm very interested in 1957-58. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs.html

[snowlover91]

Shhhhhh........talk like this will upset the winter wagon and we'll have jumpers early  

Although, reading about the Euro weeklies on twitter, it sounds like they are a full on torch(excepting thanksgiving), at least until week 4.

Sounds about as expected. Top analogs suggest a change in early January as the Nino begins breaking down. This is the key factor to watch, how soon does it begin weakening? Once it does the pattern should change to much colder for our area. December will be a "torch" IMO. For those interested here is my winter forecast made by myself and a friend. https://m.facebook.com/notes/central-eastern-nc-weather/winter-forecast-2015-2016/864459177008279/?ref=bookmarks

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Sounds about as expected. Top analogs suggest a change in early January as the Nino begins breaking down. This is the key factor to watch, how soon does it begin weakening? Once it does the pattern should change to much colder for our area. December will be a "torch" IMO. For those interested here is my winter forecast made by myself and a friend. https://m.facebook.com/notes/central-eastern-nc-weather/winter-forecast-2015-2016/864459177008279/?ref=bookmarks

I don't know what the deal is with Decembers being so warm the last few years. If December ends up torching then that would make 5 straight Decembers that torched. We might as well eliminate December from winter. The new meteorological winter should be jan-mar.

[SnowNiner]

I reckon they are smarter than all of us so I better be a little more bullish.

 

"Last winter, as a result of the warm-phase PDO, the PNA was in the positive phase for most of December, January and February, which favored ridging and warm weather over the western US and troughing with cooler conditions over the east coast.

That pattern was one of the dominant forces behind each of our late-winter precipitation events. More impressively, these events occurred in the absence of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, which is generally a necessary ingredient for our big snowfalls.

Our confidence is high that the PDO and the PNA will remain in similar configuration -- a positive phase -- as we've observed since last year. Along with the active subtropical jet stream and southerly storm track courtesy of El Niño, we expect to have favorable upper-level patterns for wet and wintry weather across the Southeast US for at least part of this winter."

 

I had a dog, and his name was...BINGO.  That's the combination I'm hoping for.  If the PDO does it's trick and creates a persistant PNA, we can do great with the STJ active.  Not really concerned about the overall AO or NAO.  That'll be a bonus if we can get it.  Glad to see the gumment on board...

[packbacker]

"Last winter, as a result of the warm-phase PDO, the PNA was in the positive phase for most of December, January and February, which favored ridging and warm weather over the western US and troughing with cooler conditions over the east coast.

That pattern was one of the dominant forces behind each of our late-winter precipitation events. More impressively, these events occurred in the absence of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, which is generally a necessary ingredient for our big snowfalls.

Our confidence is high that the PDO and the PNA will remain in similar configuration -- a positive phase -- as we've observed since last year. Along with the active subtropical jet stream and southerly storm track courtesy of El Niño, we expect to have favorable upper-level patterns for wet and wintry weather across the Southeast US for at least part of this winter."

I had a dog, and his name was...BINGO. That's the combination I'm hoping for. If the PDO does it's trick and creates a persistant PNA, we can do great with the STJ active. Not really concerned about the overall AO or NAO. That'll be a bonus if we can get it. Glad to see the gumment on board...

I do think life would be easier with -AO and we probably get a -AO regardless of whether the SAI/SCE works just due to the nino. But the progression of the +QBO nino's looks pretty good right now...I quickly threw these in, I may have missed analog.

Nov: Cold SW (-PNA'ish)

Dec: Canada torch and conus AN

Jan-Mar: We snow

[Snowless in Carrollton]

That doesn't really look like a torch across much of the southern tier of the country for December. Looks close to average

[SnowNiner]

Brad Panovich's winter forecast for CLT region...a bit disappointed in the discussion.  Heavily weighted Nino, but nothing else.  Just the fact that CLT has done really well in strong Nino's and not so well in others should give evidence that other factors greatly make a difference.  Time to just wait and see where we are in mid december....

 

http://www.wcnc.com/longform/weather/2015/11/10/brad-panovichs-2015-winter-weather-forecast/75538106/?utm_content=buffera64b2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[packbacker]

That doesn't really look like a torch across much of the southern tier of the country for December. Looks close to average

Fixed

[buckeyefan1]

Sounds about as expected. Top analogs suggest a change in early January as the Nino begins breaking down. This is the key factor to watch, how soon does it begin weakening? Once it does the pattern should change to much colder for our area. December will be a "torch" IMO. For those interested here is my winter forecast made by myself and a friend. https://m.facebook.com/notes/central-eastern-nc-weather/winter-forecast-2015-2016/864459177008279/?ref=bookmarks

Nice forecast and good luck!     

 

imo the wild card is the basin wide nino(on steriods), instead of it being east or west based. You don't have to look any further than last year to see the atmosphere didn't behave like the forecast predicted   

 

It's always a crap shoot here in the SE. Even when you have every single factor pointing towards what "should" happen....the finer details override it, and we end up with 33 and rain    

[snowlover91]

Brad Panovich's winter forecast for CLT region...a bit disappointed in the discussion. Heavily weighted Nino, but nothing else. Just the fact that CLT has done really well in strong Nino's and not so well in others should give evidence that other factors greatly make a difference. Time to just wait and see where we are in mid december....

http://www.wcnc.com/longform/weather/2015/11/10/brad-panovichs-2015-winter-weather-forecast/75538106/?utm_content=buffera64b2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

That's the key with analog forecasting; you can't look at one factor (El Nino for example) and make a reliable forecast off that. One would need to look at a blend of factors such as hurricane season, El Niño state, storm track, early season ridge/trough placements, etc and then find the years which match closest to use for the analog. That's why analog forecasting gets a bad rap because most just pick one or two things then make maps based off that. The key is looking at a blend of multiple factors then generating the analog maps based off the best matches.

[Jon]

That's the key with analog forecasting; you can't look at one factor (El Nino for example) and make a reliable forecast off that. One would need to look at a blend of factors such as hurricane season, El Niño state, storm track, early season ridge/trough placements, etc and then find the years which match closest to use for the analog. That's why analog forecasting gets a bad rap because most just pick one or two things then make maps based off that. The key is looking at a blend of multiple factors then generating the analog maps based off the best matches.

I agree but even with all those factors, analog forecasting is hardddd. One of the best out there is Eric Webb (webberweather) who used to post on here but I haven't seen him lately. He's on twitter. He even used multiple data sources for measuring the Niño when a lot of people just use one, it's impressive.

[snowlover91]

Nice forecast and good luck!

imo the wild card is the basin wide nino(on steriods), instead of it being east or west based. You don't have to look any further than last year to see the atmosphere didn't behave like the forecast predicted

It's always a crap shoot here in the SE. Even when you have every single factor pointing towards what "should" happen....the finer details override it, and we end up with 33 and rain

Unless you follow Larry Cosgrove, who imo is the best seasonal forecaster and the only person I follow for winter forecasts. He did quite well last year and has been spot on so far this year. He has a Facebook page and Google group, a lot of my forecasting technique is based on his which is somewhat "old school" but works very well in the 4 years I've followed him. Might want to take a look at his page, some great info and he looks at all factors when analog forecasting.

[griteater]

Unless you follow Larry Cosgrove, who imo is the best seasonal forecaster and the only person I follow for winter forecasts. He did quite well last year and has been spot on so far this year. He has a Facebook page and Google group, a lot of my forecasting technique is based on his which is somewhat "old school" but works very well in the 4 years I've followed him. Might want to take a look at his page, some great info and he looks at all factors when analog forecasting.

?

 

His forecast for November vs. actual Nov to date plus 7 day GFS forecast

 

 

[snowlover91]

?

 

His forecast for November vs. actual Nov to date plus 7 day GFS forecast

 

 

Keep in mind November isn't over yet and ensembles are all hinting at a colder half to November. This should significantly reduce the warm anomalies you're seeing right now and by end of month should be much closer to his forecast. You can also see the overall theme of cold west vs average in the east and Canada. Also he had mentioned in his newsletter that November would feature a warm 1st half and cooler second half for the east, which again, is exactly how it appears to be shaking out.

[snowlover91]

GFS showing a much colder airmass entering the US around Thanksgiving and slowly bleeding east with time.

[Thrasher Fan]

For the N Ga folks.

 

http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2015/nov/12/winter-weather-outlook-2015-16/

[Snowless in Carrollton]

For the N Ga folks.

 

http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2015/nov/12/winter-weather-outlook-2015-16/

I'm not sure what he means by this: "If the long-range forecast is correct, we will have a fourth consecutive notable winter season"

I don't recall anything notable about the 2012-13 winter or last winter in Atlanta.

[Eastatlwx]

I'm not sure what he means by this: "If the long-range forecast is correct, we will have a fourth consecutive notable winter season"

I don't recall anything notable about the 2012-13 winter or last winter in Atlanta.

that is true about last winter but far northern suburbs and The mountains did see a major snow event.

[Jon]

Keep in mind November isn't over yet and ensembles are all hinting at a colder half to November. This should significantly reduce the warm anomalies you're seeing right now and by end of month should be much closer to his forecast. You can also see the overall theme of cold west vs average in the east and Canada. Also he had mentioned in his newsletter that November would feature a warm 1st half and cooler second half for the east, which again, is exactly how it appears to be shaking out.

I agree with griteater. I don't think we'll see anything close to his forecast for Nov...best case is something similar to the image at the top of this page Pack posted, or 1957 which I'm hopeful for.

 

I'd probably change that map with 2+ anomalies over the east. However, these +++anomalies over the east will be hard to overcome and I think we'll have to have a pretty decently sized trough on the east to do so, not just cold making it's way east but a complete pattern flip by the 20th that needs to get underway right now. The CPC outlooks for until the 26th is hot from the plains east and that cold air mass will likely not make it here until December, if it comes. 

 

I don't see a drastic pattern change this month that can greatly overcome the ridge over the east. It will take a while due to the + anomalies in the pacific. Cosgrove's image is a large trough over the central US and too cold for a lot of people and normal for the midatlantic. So to recap I think 1957 is still possible with the help of a possible tank in the EPO, but it will be close to a miracle-esque result to overcome the domination of the ridge.