Winter 15-16 Discussion

[griteater]

Basically yes, unless the w-QBO trends to neutral in the next few weeks.  Now, can we get lucky and have a well placed ridging in NW Canada for -EPO, sure, but we will see.  I doubt even we (central NC) get shutout, I don't see a mid-Jan to mid-March active/wintery period.  Like any iffy year we will get an event or two, even in 98 we got 2.5" same with 95. 

 

The SAI is interesting this year, it has a lot going for it for SSW(s) and the nino bodes well too but the w-QBO and low solar is the worst combination for SSW.   We will see what wins.  I think we go with something like last year, a couple of good weeks in Feb, an event or two but not near as cold though.  Last Feb we had temp problem on both of our events, one was a major sleet storm and the other was a rain/snow mix.

 

Edit:  If you look at the post above with the chart you see why last year's SAI failed (e-QBO/high solar) sucks for SSW's too.  That's if you buy into the QBO/solar influence.

 

Pack - some thoughts on this...first off, not sure if you were kidding about the QBO state for this winter, but it's the most predictable of all the 3 letter indices because it progresses in a predictable pattern.  In the heart of the upcoming winter, the QBO should be on the backside of the positive phase at 30mb - https://twitter.com/splillo/status/642037809281372161

 

 

In terms of the QBO/Solar connection, let's look at your cited SSW chart...

 

-QBO/High Solar winters - '59, '69, '80, '82, '90, '92 - as noted, none of these had a Major Midwinter Warming (SSW in midwinter).  For the winter AO, 2 were negative, 2 were neutral, and 2 were positive.  The one caveat is that one of the -AO winters, 68-69, had an early warming in Nov '68 so that got the -AO going early that winter.

 

+QBO/Low Solar winters - '62, '64, '65, '67, '72, '74, '76, '78, '83, '86, '88, '93, '94, '95 - as noted, none of these had a Major Midwinter Warming.  For the winter AO, 7 were negative, 6 were neutral, and 3 were positive.

 

So, what we see here is that your chart from the paper shows a strong correlation between Major Midwinter Warmings NOT occurring in the listed QBO/Solar combos above.  However, it doesn't always have the expected tropospheric AO response, as you would expect to see more +AO winter outcomes.

 

In terms of this winter, the early ramp up here in November of the stratospheric polar vortex is NOT what we want to see for a -AO winter, but we'll have to see how things progress going forward.

[NEchestercountydude]

What do you guys consider low solar? Yeah, we're heading towards a minumum but wont be there for another three or four years. I'd say we're at moderate currently.  Here's the 2015 solar numbers so far:

MONTH              FLUX   TREND   SUNSPOT#    TREND     SUNSPOT# (RI)        FLARE MAX     FLARE  TOTALS-------------     -----   -----   --------    -----     ---------------      ---------     -- M --- X --November 2015                                                                  M3.9           4     0October  2015                         59.5     down      37.0     down         M5.5          10     0Sept.    2015     102.1    down       72.5      UP       46.9      UP          M7.6          17     0August   2015     106.2    down       61.6     down      38.8     down         M5.6          11     0July     2015     107.0     UP        68.4     down      39.8     down         M1.7           3     0   June     2015     123.2     UP        77.3     down      41.0     down         M7.9          12     0 May      2015     120.1    down       83.0      UP       58.8      UP          X2.7           5     1 April    2015     129.2     UP        72.5      UP       54.4      UP          M4.0          11     0March    2015     126.0    down       61.7     down      38.4     down         X2.2          27     1February 2015     128.8    down       70.6     down      44.8     down         M2.4           2     0January  2015     141.7    down      101.2     down      67.0     down         M5.6          13     0

[griteater]

 

What do you guys consider low solar? Yeah, we're heading towards a minumum but wont be there for another three or four years. I'd say we're at moderate currently.  Here's the 2015 solar numbers so far:

MONTH              FLUX   TREND   SUNSPOT#    TREND     SUNSPOT# (RI)        FLARE MAX     FLARE  TOTALS-------------     -----   -----   --------    -----     ---------------      ---------     -- M --- X --November 2015                                                                  M3.9           4     0October  2015                         59.5     down      37.0     down         M5.5          10     0Sept.    2015     102.1    down       72.5      UP       46.9      UP          M7.6          17     0August   2015     106.2    down       61.6     down      38.8     down         M5.6          11     0July     2015     107.0     UP        68.4     down      39.8     down         M1.7           3     0   June     2015     123.2     UP        77.3     down      41.0     down         M7.9          12     0 May      2015     120.1    down       83.0      UP       58.8      UP          X2.7           5     1 April    2015     129.2     UP        72.5      UP       54.4      UP          M4.0          11     0March    2015     126.0    down       61.7     down      38.4     down         X2.2          27     1February 2015     128.8    down       70.6     down      44.8     down         M2.4           2     0January  2015     141.7    down      101.2     down      67.0     down         M5.6          13     0

 

In the QBO/Solar papers I've seen, low solar is typically when the midwinter averaged solar flux is 105 or lower.  Barring a spike, we should be just going into low solar this winter from a solar flux perspective.

 

Based on your comment though I noticed that in the +QBO/low solar years, I failed to remove the neutral solar years of '67, '93, '83, '72, '78.  In doing that though, a similar AO ratio is maintained of 6 -AO, 3 neutral AO, and 2 +AO winters

[NEchestercountydude]

In the QBO/Solar papers I've seen, low solar is typically when the midwinter averaged solar flux is 105 or lower.  Barring a spike, we should be just going into low solar this winter from a solar flux perspective.

 

Based on your comment though I noticed that in the +QBO/low solar years, I failed to remove the neutral solar years of '67, '93, '83, '72, '78.  In doing that though, a similar AO ratio is maintained of 6 -AO, 3 neutral AO, and 2 +AO winters

Huh. I thought it would be lower than 105, thanks for the info. so we're right on the border of Low/moderate/neutral. The QBO is ++++ this right now too, I wonder if that changes anything.

[mitchnick]

Huh. I thought it would be lower than 105, thanks for the info. so we're right on the border of Low/moderate/neutral. The QBO is ++++ this right now too, I wonder if that changes anything.

....and the sun can always spike for a period which will boost us up

the great thing about this winter is that anybody, met or hobbyist, who says they think they know what will happen is just full of bs

[packbacker]

Pack - some thoughts on this...first off, not sure if you were kidding about the QBO state for this winter, but it's the most predictable of all the 3 letter indices because it progresses in a predictable pattern.  In the heart of the upcoming winter, the QBO should be on the backside of the positive phase at 30mb - https://twitter.com/splillo/status/642037809281372161

 

 

In terms of the QBO/Solar connection, let's look at your cited SSW chart...

 

-QBO/High Solar winters - '59, '69, '80, '82, '90, '92 - as noted, none of these had a Major Midwinter Warming (SSW in midwinter).  For the winter AO, 2 were negative, 2 were neutral, and 2 were positive.  The one caveat is that one of the -AO winters, 68-69, had an early warming in Nov '68 so that got the -AO going early that winter.

 

+QBO/Low Solar winters - '62, '64, '65, '67, '72, '74, '76, '78, '83, '86, '88, '93, '94, '95 - as noted, none of these had a Major Midwinter Warming.  For the winter AO, 7 were negative, 6 were neutral, and 3 were positive.

 

So, what we see here is that your chart from the paper shows a strong correlation between Major Midwinter Warmings NOT occurring in the listed QBO/Solar combos above.  However, it doesn't always have the expected tropospheric AO response, as you would expect to see more +AO winter outcomes.

 

In terms of this winter, the early ramp up here in November of the stratospheric polar vortex is NOT what we want to see for a -AO winter, but we'll have to see how things progress going forward.

 

Thanks Grit!  Agree with everything you said, we still can get a -AO for this winter.  But, I am sure you noticed that every winter -AO in the +QBO/low solar list had a Dec -AO....

 

Also, I went strictly off the chart of anything under 150sfu as "low solar".  I know some dummy is going to come argue that 150 isn't low solar so they can call it whatever they want..."lowish solar" "below 150sfu", etc...

[tonysc]

I would like to make a request. As the winter forecasts roll out, it would be nice to not have every forecast that doesn't predict above normal snowfall be demonized as, "bailing on winter", "cliff jumping", "throwing in the towel" etc.  Such comments add nothing and sometimes start a back and forth exchange that we would be better off without.  Any long range forecast is a mix of the knowledge of the forecaster, an ability to use that knowledge in developing an extended forecast and luck.  In the SE, a seasonal snow forecast relies much more on luck than in other areas.  

 

When you read a forecast, it is up to you to decide on the qualifications and reputation of the forecaster and how much credence you feel the forecast deserves.  It is not necessary to attempt to belittle anyone's efforts.  Doing so will have zero effect on our snowfall.

 

Thanks.

I been around for a few decades now and I don't know of any professional MET's, no matter their qualifications or reputation, that hasn't completely blown forecasts before, and I don't mean once or twice, and especially when it comes to snow. Just off the top of my head, I can recall several big snowstorms that were a complete surprise to forecasters. Feb. 1973, March 1983, Jan. 2000, and I remember some that I can't remember the year. And I recall many times when it didn't happen when they said it would.

 

I remember reading, probably back in the 70's in The Old Farmers Almanac, that weather is MOST unpredictable in the late Fall, the whole of Winter, and early Spring.

[jburns]

I been around for a few decades now and I don't know of any professional MET's, no matter their qualifications or reputation, that hasn't completely blown forecasts before, and I don't mean once or twice, and especially when it comes to snow. Just off the top of my head, I can recall several big snowstorms that were a complete surprise to forecasters. Feb. 1973, March 1983, Jan. 2000, and I remember some that I can't remember the year. And I recall many times when it didn't happen when they said it would.

 

I remember reading, probably back in the 70's in The Old Farmers Almanac, that weather is MOST unpredictable in the late Fall, the whole of Winter, and early Spring.

That's a bold statement.

[tonysc]

That's a bold statement.

LOL.....pun intended, I assume. 

[tonysc]

Hey ya'll check out AccuWeather's long-range forecast, it's going up to Christmas Day now. Look at Dec. 22. But look quickly, it'll be different very soon.

[packbacker]

Just looking at the +anomalies for Nov so far, a good chunk of the SE will be approaching +7-10F anomalies through first 20 days of Nov, even if we avg neutral the last 10 days that will put us atleast +5F for Nov.  Only other warm enso I could find over +5F is Nov 03.  This should be a fun winter to say the least with the all the extreme anomalies showing up.  The intense high heights in NW Canada and pac low SW of Aleutians for Oct I thought was a good sign and maybe we flip the warmth for extreme cold in Jan/Feb....

[LithiaWx]

Just looking at the +anomalies for Nov so far, a good chunk of the SE will be approaching +7-10F anomalies through first 20 days of Nov, even if we avg neutral the last 10 days that will put us atleast +5F for Nov. Only other warm enso I could find over +5F is Nov 03. This should be a fun winter to say the least with the all the extreme anomalies showing up. The intense high heights in NW Canada and pac low SW of Aleutians for Oct I thought was a good sign and maybe we flip the warmth for extreme cold in Jan/Feb....

I'm a firm believer in a flip. Warm in November and early December is right where we want to be. No point in wasting a good pattern now when it would not benefit most of us.

[snowlover91]

I'm a firm believer in a flip. Warm in November and early December is right where we want to be. No point in wasting a good pattern now when it would not benefit most of us.

 

I agree with you, the pattern this year should be warm for November and December with a change to cold for the heart of winter; January and February. With the active STJ there should be plenty of opportunities and all we need is one good storm to make us all happy. Also I've noticed a lot of cutoff low's so far this fall which is a good sign if we can keep those going into the January-February time range. Looks like a big one next week in the central US.

[NCSNOW]

One thing that's sticking out like a sore thumb and will eventually bode well for the SE if it keeps up the next 3 and half months is the continual big bowling ball ULL that keep showing up. Got to love this and next week we have another one that's gonna come rolling by from the southern plains. Also I'd be cautious on buying into any long sustained warmup in Western NC and upstate due the cads whether textbook or hybird.

[FallsLake]

One thing that's sticking out like a sore thumb and will eventually bode well for the SE if it keeps up the next 3 and half months is the continual big bowling ball ULL that keep showing up. Got to love this and next week we have another one that's gonna come rolling by from the southern plains. Also I'd be cautious on buying into any long sustained warmup in Western NC and upstate due the cads whether textbook or hybird.

CADs saved us last year in December and January; in which we didn't receive winter storms but didn't torch. Lots of low 40s and rain events. 

[NCummingWx93]

One thing that's sticking out like a sore thumb and will eventually bode well for the SE if it keeps up the next 3 and half months is the continual big bowling ball ULL that keep showing up. Got to love this and next week we have another one that's gonna come rolling by from the southern plains. Also I'd be cautious on buying into any long sustained warmup in Western NC and upstate due the cads whether textbook or hybird.

When do you see our next wedge setting up? I love them. They almost always make it all the way SW to the N/E suburbs of ATL.

[griteater]

I agree with you, the pattern this year should be warm for November and December with a change to cold for the heart of winter; January and February. With the active STJ there should be plenty of opportunities and all we need is one good storm to make us all happy. Also I've noticed a lot of cutoff low's so far this fall which is a good sign if we can keep those going into the January-February time range. Looks like a big one next week in the central US.

Depends on where you live and your expectations. One good storm wouldn't make it a happy winter for some.

[Jon]

Pack - your post motivated mine. I agree with you on the flip for Jan-Feb, November may not end up being that warm and you did mention it can end up being average which I agree with.

 

El Ninos in general are good for the SE despite what all the other indicators are doing/saying... 

 

The models (GFS/Euro) look to constantly flip flop over the SE around Day 10 as far as 500mb goes, November could very well not torch but be around normal. We could end up seeing something like Nov 1957. It was a strong El Nino year (like this year as you know) the east coast didn't torch during Nov but certainly wasn't cold. But Texas and the west, as well as the central US was...much like what I'm seeing going on the models through day 10.

 

Here's what December looked like. 

 

 

Not pretty, but it very well could happen. The ridge propagating from east to west over long term, and really setting up the fun....much like I believe this winter will be. December overall at 500mb wasn't bad, although I can't post it (too many images). I hate waiting the 2nd half of winter like the rest of us, but of all winters, this may be the one we have to wait for delayed gratification....

 

Jan 1958. I really like the way this looks. Aside from obvious reasons, the Aleutians low and broad ridge over Canada is there, which we have seen everywhere on climate models. 

 

 

 

Feb 1958

 

 

Jan-Feb 1958

 

 

1957-1958 was good for Appalachians. Most places hit average if not above average snowfall everywhere else. 1957-58 also had a monster block, very -AO/-NAO:

 

Also keep in mind El Ninos almost always count on very good timing and make or break systems, but so do a lot of winters in the SE...so don't let that low snowfall numbers discourage you, ice could be a real issue. This post is probably pretty weenie of me, but no analog is perfect and right now all we can do really is just wait and see what happens.

[packbacker]

Jon - great post above! The UK seasonal did fairly well last year and the JMA did OK too. The UK is obviously a best case scenario for us, curious what the JMA shows for Nov. I think it comes out tomorrow.

[Jon]

Jon - great post above! The UK seasonal did fairly well last year and the JMA did OK too. The UK is obviously a best case scenario for us, curious what the JMA shows for Nov. I think it comes out tomorrow.

Thanks. Other than daily variations of the CFSv2 and its questionable 2mT torches the entire winter, most seasonal climate models look very similar including the Canadian, Beijing, IRI, etc. Yep, JMA ran today at 12z gets posted tomorrow, not sure what time though. Should be interesting.

[mitchnick]

Jon - great post above! The UK seasonal did fairly well last year and the JMA did OK too. The UK is obviously a best case scenario for us, curious what the JMA shows for Nov. I think it comes out tomorrow.

It's out! It's already tomorrow in Japan!

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

[packbacker]

It's out! It's already tomorrow in Japan! http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

Nice, forgot about the Jamstec! This one should come out tonight/tomorrow too...

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/

[snowlover91]

Thanks. Other than daily variations of the CFSv2 and its questionable 2mT torches the entire winter, most seasonal climate models look very similar including the Canadian, Beijing, IRI, etc. Yep, JMA ran today at 12z gets posted tomorrow, not sure what time though. Should be interesting.

1957-58 is a good analog year for how this season may play out. I also like 1972-73 and 1987-88 for similar years. A key in analog forecasting is to look at all the variables and not just one. Things such as ridge placement early season, Aleutian low placement, STJ strength and location, precip anomalies, hurricane season, etc all are the factors one has to look at. Otherwise you end up with people picking and choosing years based off one or two items without looking at all the other features. The years that correspond best with this season had cold January/February with a warm November and toasty December. So far everything looks to be playing out this way which increases my confidence in a good winter come January. Until then you'll see a lot of "the sky is falling" especially by mid to late December when much of the nation is a "torch."

[pcbjr]

Should be interesting. Jon,

 

Jon,

 

Should be and will be ......     or    

 

Catch you as we get closer!

 

Phil

 

ps - I'm no met but I've been posting since Sept - warm until X-Mas and then .....

[stadiumwave]

JAMSTEC UPDATED

 

 

 

 

[packbacker]

JAMSTEC UPDATED

 

 

http://i.imgur.cKxuJ09i.png?1

 

 

http://i.imgur.c.png?1

The JAMSTEC is like a blend of all the coldest nino's with above avg precip.

[Jon]

Monthly JMA is out, it looks as expected. Ridge is elongated across Canada for Day 17-30 14day mean (first two weeks of December). Looks like a pattern change will start sometime in December and not any earlier. JMA 3 month comes out mid month, that will be more telling for DEC as a whole.

 

[Met1985]

Good stuff Jon and great work.

[NCSNOW]

Last weekend of November!

 

[packbacker]

Good read from the NC climate office..."Along with the active subtropical jet stream and southerly storm track courtesy of El Niño, we expect to have favorable upper-level patterns for wet and wintry weather across the Southeast US for at least part of this winter."

 

 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=163