Jon Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 We shall see, I think we are AN temps and below avg snowfall (0 to 2F) and (4-6"). Although 4-6" maybe high. I see something similar to last winter, sucky Dec/Jan with a somewhat wintery couple of weeks in Feb, although not near as cold. Last winter we were at Feb 20th with 1" of snow on the season, LOL. As Mr T said... You forgot Feb in the image lol...it will definitely change that map a little in the SE if you added it in. Pretty classic anomaly map for the SE during strong El Ninos. We'll have fun this winter, it will be wet and wild...maybe not that cold, but we don't need sub 10 degrees for snow, thank god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 You forgot Feb in the image lol...it will definitely change that map a little in the SE if you added it in. Pretty classic anomaly map for the SE during strong El Ninos. We'll have fun this winter, it will be wet and wild...maybe not that cold, but we don't need sub 10 degrees for snow, thank god. I left it out intentionally showing that Dec/Jan won't be good. Like last winter I do think we see a couple of weeks of promise in Feb, but these Nino/+PDO winters sure do suck, it shrinks your snow window down to a couple of weeks in Feb. Only 3 more months till we are tracking something. Bring on the La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Maybe we get one of these in Feb/Mar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I left it out intentionally showing that Dec/Jan won't be good. Like last winter I do think we see a couple of weeks of promise in Feb, but these Nino/+PDO winters sure do suck, it shrinks your snow window down to a couple of weeks in Feb. Only 3 more months till we are tracking something. Bring on the La Nina. Oh ok I didn't know it was on purpose. I hear you...at least wait until Jan to throw in the towel, haha. I'm getting depressed reading your posts but you're making good points. Everyone putting out a forecast this month will go near normal temps, above average precip, and 1-2 sizable storms with Feb being the month to make or break us...so I hear you on that, but I feel like we don't really get going (good or not) by Feb anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Oh ok I didn't know it was on purpose. I hear you...at least wait until Jan to throw in the towel, haha. I'm getting depressed reading your posts but you're making good points. Everyone putting out a forecast this month will go near normal temps, above average precip, and 1-2 sizable storms with Feb being the month to make or break us...so I hear you on that, but I feel like we don't really get going (good or not) by Feb anyway. Why is that? What in the world does it take to get snow in Jan, that is our coldest month. To be honest, that's what so frustrating about last winter and this winter, by Vday I am ready for pre-emergent and soccer. Beggars can't be choosers I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Last 5 Strong Nino's snowfall: Raleigh, NC 1957-1958: 7.9" 1965-1966: 11.8" 1972-1973: 11.3" 1982-1983: 11.8" 1991-1992: 0" 1997-1998: 2.4" These last two paltry ones occurred during Pack's 30 year declining snowfall trend chart that he likes to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Pack's the Ji of the SE forum...not a question of 'if' there will be a meltdown, but 'how early' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 In reality; No analogs are particularly strong for this winter. While I don't usually quote JB, the current SSTa configuration looks really nothing like 1997-1998. However, I think one thing that is missing from a lot of forecasts is the pure amount of energy located off the waters of the eastern seaboard. While it will probably add more in late/Jan to February than earlier in the winter, it's a bit of an ominous sign in terms of creating large storms. It's does appear south of 40N will not be consistently wintery as 2009-2010, but our chances of a big storm are hugely elevated, IMO. We have a super nino and waters that are insanely warm from KSAV to the BM. We have a good shot at a few SJS big boys that could funnel in colder air. None of the other analogs that are being presently thrown around have anything like what we are seeing off the Atlantic seaboard, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 In reality; No analogs are particularly strong for this winter. While I don't usually quote JB, the current SSTa configuration looks really nothing like 1997-1998. However, I think one thing that is missing from a lot of forecasts is the pure amount of energy located off the waters of the eastern seaboard. While it will probably add more in late/Jan to February than earlier in the winter, it's a bit of an ominous sign in terms of creating large storms. It's does appear south of 40N will not be consistently wintery as 2009-2010, but our chances of a big storm are hugely elevated, IMO. We have a super nino and waters that are insanely warm from KSAV to the BM. We have a good shot at a few SJS big boys that could funnel in colder air. None of the other analogs that are being presently thrown around have anything like what we are seeing off the Atlantic seaboard, IMO. thatsa' the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 thatsa' the spirit! Not calling for a blockbuster winter by any means! I just think it will hinge on one or two events more than the "average" winter does. I think most of us can agree we'd prefer more of a consistently wintry scene, but this is what we are dealt this year. As far as the NAO/AO; I stopped trying to predict that long ago. If we go wall to wall +NAO, we'll definitely be in trouble with a strong nino. This will not be a 2013-2014 repeat were the AO "saves the day." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation. A good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Not calling for a blockbuster winter by any means! I just think it will hinge on one or two events more than the "average" winter does. I think most of us can agree we'd prefer more of a consistently wintry scene, but this is what we are dealt this year. As far as the NAO/AO; I stopped trying to predict that long ago. If we go wall to wall +NAO, we'll definitely be in trouble with a strong nino. This will not be a 2013-2014 repeat were the AO "saves the day." in a nutshell, all things considered, if we have a cooler version of 97/98, we will have a shot at at least 1 big one, probably 2 temps will be marginal, but hey, that's probably just the way it's gunna' be....I'll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Not calling for a blockbuster winter by any means! I just think it will hinge on one or two events more than the "average" winter does. I think most of us can agree we'd prefer more of a consistently wintry scene, but this is what we are dealt this year. As far as the NAO/AO; I stopped trying to predict that long ago. If we go wall to wall +NAO, we'll definitely be in trouble with a strong nino. This will not be a 2013-2014 repeat were the AO "saves the day." in a nutshell, all things considered, if we have a cooler version of 97/98, we will have a shot at at least 1 big one, probably 2 temps will be marginal, but hey, that's probably just the way it's gunna' be....I'll take my chances I'd be fine with foregoing more persistent cold for an enhanced shot at a southern stream biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Pack's the Ji of the SE forum...not a question of 'if' there will be a meltdown, but 'how early' Hey, wooahh...where did that come from... Just saying a prolonged wintery pattern isn't likely and Feb/March will have to produce. Still go back to 83 analog, lots of similarities, IMO...but that took a miracle late March winter storm, otherwise it would have been a dud like 98. So from the people that are killing me it seems everyone agrees that it will take a lucky big one to get above avg and that it will be Feb. I am saying it from the glass half empty side of things and others are saying it from the glass half full, either way we are saying the same thing. I liked your tweets about the strat/+QBO, this is a bleak chart.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Hey, wooahh...where did that come from... Just truth, but all in good fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I would like to make a request. As the winter forecasts roll out, it would be nice to not have every forecast that doesn't predict above normal snowfall be demonized as, "bailing on winter", "cliff jumping", "throwing in the towel" etc. Such comments add nothing and sometimes start a back and forth exchange that we would be better off without. Any long range forecast is a mix of the knowledge of the forecaster, an ability to use that knowledge in developing an extended forecast and luck. In the SE, a seasonal snow forecast relies much more on luck than in other areas. When you read a forecast, it is up to you to decide on the qualifications and reputation of the forecaster and how much credence you feel the forecast deserves. It is not necessary to attempt to belittle anyone's efforts. Doing so will have zero effect on our snowfall. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Last 5 Strong Nino's snowfall: Raleigh, NC 1957-1958: 7.9" 1965-1966: 11.8" 1972-1973: 11.3" 1982-1983: 11.8" 1991-1992: 0" 1997-1998: 2.4" interesting because I got like 6" in 91-92. How did I get 6" and Raleigh get nothing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I would like to make a request. As the winter forecasts roll out, it would be nice to not have every forecast that doesn't predict above normal snowfall be demonized as, "bailing on winter", "cliff jumping", "throwing in the towel" etc. Such comments add nothing and sometimes start a back and forth exchange that we would be better off without. Any long range forecast is a mix of the knowledge of the forecaster, an ability to use that knowledge in developing an extended forecast and luck. In the SE, a seasonal snow forecast relies much more on luck than in other areas. When you read a forecast, it is up to you to decide on the qualifications and reputation of the forecaster and how much credence you feel the forecast deserves. It is not necessary to attempt to belittle anyone's efforts. Doing so will have zero effect on our snowfall. Thanks. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I would like to make a request. As the winter forecasts roll out, it would be nice to not have every forecast that doesn't predict above normal snowfall be demonized as, "bailing on winter", "cliff jumping", "throwing in the towel" etc. Such comments add nothing and sometimes start a back and forth exchange that we would be better off without. Any long range forecast is a mix of the knowledge of the forecaster, an ability to use that knowledge in developing an extended forecast and luck. In the SE, a seasonal snow forecast relies much more on luck than in other areas. When you read a forecast, it is up to you to decide on the qualifications and reputation of the forecaster and how much credence you feel the forecast deserves. It is not necessary to attempt to belittle anyone's efforts. Doing so will have zero effect on our snowfall. Thanks. Okay, how about a similar post for forecasts that DO call for a snowy cold winter or is this just a one way street? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Good post.Kiss a$$! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 interesting because I got like 6" in 91-92. How did I get 6" and Raleigh get nothing ? Because of this...+NAO, +AO, +WARM equals no snow, except for your backyard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 For those who are interested in analog forecasting and discouraged about possibly having a warm winter I encourage you to read the forecast linked below. The person who writes it is typically quite accurate and uses a blend of experience, satellite imagery, current conditions and past analog years to make his winter forecasts. He does so with pretty good accuracy and it shows how we can expect warmth till January when the pattern flips. Fwiw, he also doesn't even expect meaningful snow for the NE areas until after the New Year showing how warm he expects us to start out. However keep reading because January and February could be fun!! 2015-2016 Winter Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Hey, wooahh...where did that come from... Just saying a prolonged wintery pattern isn't likely and Feb/March will have to produce. Still go back to 83 analog, lots of similarities, IMO...but that took a miracle late March winter storm, otherwise it would have been a dud like 98. So from the people that are killing me it seems everyone agrees that it will take a lucky big one to get above avg and that it will be Feb. I am saying it from the glass half empty side of things and others are saying it from the glass half full, either way we are saying the same thing. I liked your tweets about the strat/+QBO, this is a bleak chart.... So, basically you are saying that you think the SAI correlation will fail again this year and we will see another winter with a +AO / +NAO?......You are right in one aspect..... It will not be wall-to-wall cold. However, living where I do, I have never been shut out from measureable snowfall in my 50 years. Even in the warm winters, I manage to get something white on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 So, basically you are saying that you think the SAI correlation will fail again this year and we will see another winter with a +AO / +NAO?......You are right in one aspect..... It will not be wall-to-wall cold. However, living where I do, I have never been shut out from measureable snowfall in my 50 years. Even in the warm winters, I manage to get something white on the ground. Basically yes, unless the w-QBO trends to neutral in the next few weeks. Now, can we get lucky and have a well placed ridging in NW Canada for -EPO, sure, but we will see. I doubt even we (central NC) get shutout, I don't see a mid-Jan to mid-March active/wintery period. Like any iffy year we will get an event or two, even in 98 we got 2.5" same with 95. The SAI is interesting this year, it has a lot going for it for SSW(s) and the nino bodes well too but the w-QBO and low solar is the worst combination for SSW. We will see what wins. I think we go with something like last year, a couple of good weeks in Feb, an event or two but not near as cold though. Last Feb we had temp problem on both of our events, one was a major sleet storm and the other was a rain/snow mix. Edit: If you look at the post above with the chart you see why last year's SAI failed (e-QBO/high solar) sucks for SSW's too. That's if you buy into the QBO/solar influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Okay, how about a similar post for forecasts that DO call for a snowy cold winter or is this just a one way street? lol You've got to be kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Kiss a$$! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Pack, I really wouldn't worry too much about the QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I'm just checking in for the first time, as it's that time of year, and to no surprise things never change...LOL! I just can't imagine things being different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I would like to make a request. As the winter forecasts roll out, it would be nice to not have every forecast that doesn't predict above normal snowfall be demonized as, "bailing on winter", "cliff jumping", "throwing in the towel" etc. Such comments add nothing and sometimes start a back and forth exchange that we would be better off without. Any long range forecast is a mix of the knowledge of the forecaster, an ability to use that knowledge in developing an extended forecast and luck. In the SE, a seasonal snow forecast relies much more on luck than in other areas. When you read a forecast, it is up to you to decide on the qualifications and reputation of the forecaster and how much credence you feel the forecast deserves. It is not necessary to attempt to belittle anyone's efforts. Doing so will have zero effect on our snowfall. Thanks. Thank you for changing your avatar!!! That spooky clown thing was freakin creepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Thank you for changing your avatar!!! That spooky clown thing was freakin creepy I have that one, and several others, in reserve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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