Jon Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Jon, good post man. Thanks for taking the time to take us through that! Thanks! Can't wait to chase some fluffy white stuff this season. Record Siberian snow could bode ill for Northeast USA Today article via WCNC There is a theory about snow in Siberia during the month of October: If there is a lot, it can mean a particularly wicked winter in the northeast United States. Last month, Siberia experienced record snowfall and the worst blizzard in a decade. Above-average snow cover in Siberia is believed to affect the now-famous polar vortex and send bitterly cold temperatures to the Northeast. This happens when the Arctic Oscillation, a climate pattern, shifts. http://www.wcnc.com/story/news/nation/2015/11/07/record-siberian-snow-could-bode-ill-northeast/75224060/ Yep, hopefully they keep getting hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Here is why I think December will be warm. The best analog years I can find show that while November may be at or above average (cool down second half should balance us out), December is likely to be quite warm overall. Look at this composite map and notice the warmth. December is the month I'm watching closely, if are quite warm overall then I'll feel confident for a great January and February. Also notice the cool west vs warm east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Here is why I think December will be warm. The best analog years I can find show that while November may be at or above average (cool down second half should balance us out), December is likely to be quite warm overall. Look at this composite map and notice the warmth. December is the month I'm watching closely, if are quite warm overall then I'll feel confident for a great January and February. Also notice the cool west vs warm east. Doesn't look warm in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 1902-03 is a viable analog, strong nino, shows the Nov we are having now and it essentially stayed stuck in that pattern all winter. If we get to end of Nov and we got the same west coast trough with the AK vortex of death it may be time to start hunting for your nearest cliff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 ^ That will probably be the analog that turns out to be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Here is why I think December will be warm. The best analog years I can find show that while November may be at or above average (cool down second half should balance us out), December is likely to be quite warm overall. Look at this composite map and notice the warmth. December is the month I'm watching closely, if are quite warm overall then I'll feel confident for a great January and February. Also notice the cool west vs warm east. Why do you think those are the best analog years? Wondering what thought went into the composite that's all. Honestly I think Dec could be warm or near normal first half, then flip mid month, which is fine with me. Most of the good SE winter events occur in Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Evidently the euro seasonal was released this morning, per JB subtle changes, but overall consistent with previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Why do you think those are the best analog years? Wondering what thought went into the composite that's all. Honestly I think Dec could be warm or near normal first half, then flip mid month, which is fine with me. Most of the good SE winter events occur in Jan/Feb.Yeah I mean look at the past few years we had a cold November then warm December and most of January was warm then we flipped. Seems like a lot of cherry picking of years just to feed the nerves of some unstable weenies. I have remembered having several Novembers being warm then flipping cold the next month. I can remember several years ago we had wild fires at thanksgiving because it was so warm and dry the the middle to end of December things flipped big time. We have lots of time and many variables on the table. It is only the first of November still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I think I saw alot of NC's biggest snows, I.e, top 5-10 of all time, were in Dec!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I think I saw alot of NC's biggest snows, I.e, top 5-10 of all time, were in Dec!? Not for central NC, not sure about western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 I think I saw alot of NC's biggest snows, I.e, top 5-10 of all time, were in Dec!? 4 of top 10 snows occurred in Dec in Charlotte and Greenville, SC. 2 of top 10 in Asheville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Why do you think those are the best analog years? Wondering what thought went into the composite that's all. Honestly I think Dec could be warm or near normal first half, then flip mid month, which is fine with me. Most of the good SE winter events occur in Jan/Feb. Right or wrong / agree or disagree, those are all of the strong el ninos since 1950 in snowlover's composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 4 of top 10 snows occurred in Dec in Charlotte and Greenville, SC. 2 of top 10 in Asheville None of Raleigh's top 10 snows occurred in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Right or wrong / agree or disagree, those are all of the strong el ninos since 1950 in snowlover's composite.Ok that's all I wanted to know, seems like a good idea then. Wonder what would happen if it included the SAI analog of 2009/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Ok that's all I wanted to know, seems like a good idea then. Wonder what would happen if it included the SAI analog of 2009/2010 As mentioned above these years are all strong El Niño years. In addition the similarities of some of them to this year are a big hint towards what we may see. The worst analog of them all imo is 1997-1998, it was a strong El Niño but the placement of the features was different and the overall setup. I think an analog of all these years will give us a good idea of what to expect. As requested I added 2009-2010 into the mix and got the average temps from November through February, it matches up quite well with what we are seeing. As you can see November looks warm as well as December. Then January-February look cold in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 At the end of the latest GFS run there's a fantasy flurry for the Apps... It won't become anything, the Ensemble has the temperatures way warmer than the GFS. Just wanted to point it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 1902-03 is a viable analog, strong nino, shows the Nov we are having now and it essentially stayed stuck in that pattern all winter. If we get to end of Nov and we got the same west coast trough with the AK vortex of death it may be time to start hunting for your nearest cliff.... Nope.... Not even close. Look at the cold water in the Pacific off the west coast. This year will not be a -PDO winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Nope.... Not even close. Look at the cold water in the Pacific off the west coast. This year will not be a -PDO winter. That's not a -PDO, you have warm waters in GOA up against the coast. Curious how much PDO influence we even have with such a strong Nino, we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 As mentioned above these years are all strong El Niño years. In addition the similarities of some of them to this year are a big hint towards what we may see. The worst analog of them all imo is 1997-1998, it was a strong El Niño but the placement of the features was different and the overall setup. I think an analog of all these years will give us a good idea of what to expect. As requested I added 2009-2010 into the mix and got the average temps from November through February, it matches up quite well with what we are seeing. As you can see November looks warm as well as December. Then January-February look cold in the south. Thanks for following up...you've been here since '10? Post more! I appreciate it. I'm fine with a Dec like that if it spits out a fun JFM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Word on today's Euro seasonal release... Euro seasonal was nice...awesome Aleutian low placement and good area of peak ridging in W Canada. I don't hate it at all...it's going to start ugly in December, which is no surprise. But JFM composite looks nice. I admittedly didn't look at 2m...only 500mb...but that's all I care about anyway on seasonal models. If you have a cold fetish, this is probably not for you....but I like the storm/snow chances for us. The NAO looks like it starts positive but then may transition somewhat in the 2nd half of winter. The Aleutian low placement and downstream ridging being comfortably west of Hudson Bay is what I liked about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Word on today's Euro seasonal release... ORH_wxman, on 08 Nov 2015 - 1:05 PM, said: If you have a cold fetish, this is probably not for you....but I like the storm/snow chances for us. The NAO looks like it starts positive but then may transition somewhat in the 2nd half of winter. The Aleutian low placement and downstream ridging being comfortably west of Hudson Bay is what I liked about it. LOVE the high setting up west of Hudson Bay, that is dreamland for us with an active SJT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Thanks for following up...you've been here since '10? Post more! I appreciate it. I'm fine with a Dec like that if it spits out a fun JFM... Yep I've been around for awhile just don't post too often. I've found out and learned much over the years by simply reading and looking at what others have to say. My favorite winter forecaster is Larry Cosgrove who happens to use the same style of analog forecasting for winter and he nailed last year as well. He uses quite a few other years in his forecasts and is far more advanced than anything I can understand at this time, but his forecast and analog maps are fairly similar to the ones I posted. His show an even colder January and February period with the warmest month being December. I think towards the end of December once the Nino begins to weaken we should start seeing the signs of a pattern change on the models. Once it happens it should be a fun 6-8 weeks with an active jet, great blocking (hopefully!) and cold weather settling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Latest UK seasonal, if if it's right about the pattern and how wet it is then we should see some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Latest UK seasonal, if if it's right about the pattern and how wet it is then we should see some snow... Uh....wow...check please. The average of JAN+FEB on the seasonal JMA looks basically like a carbon copy of that...new weeklies should be out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Uh....wow...check please. The average of JAN+FEB on the seasonal JMA looks basically like a carbon copy of that...new weeklies should be out tomorrow. Yep, put a bow on it, not sure how much better it could considering it such a strong nino. UK seasonal is very impressive for 3.4/4 regions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Latest UK seasonal, if if it's right about the pattern and how wet it is then we should see some snow... Pack - I just looked through a compare of the Oct and Nov releases of the UK (the UK Met Office GPC) The pattern improved on the Pacific side, but was a little worse with the NAO (more noticeable for DJM than JFM). Euro and UK suggesting we will continue to fight NAO issues this winter. Pac pattern for Jan-Mar avg is dynamite though on the UK...NCSnow says that's all we need Aleutian Low with big ridging in NW Canada into the Arctic. That would drop cold high pressures through central Canada into the Great Lakes. Do you have a link to the N America view like you posted above? I can't find them on the UK site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Aleutian Low with big ridging in NW Canada into the Arctic. That would drop cold high pressures through central Canada into the Great Lakes. I'm not big on seasonal models and trying to analyze every minute detail but things like what I bolded are very important for both of our regions. One of the ways we can do ok this winter (assuming blocking is so-so at best) would be to not have the Pac jet just slamming into NA and screwing up our source region. SNE's latitude helps them quite a bit with a crappy pac because they can do just fine with a cold SE canada. We can't unfortunately. As you already pointed out, our good air masses for snow (generally speaking) drop down from central Canada into the OHV. This is especially important when there isn't a block. Then it comes down to timing of course but given enough chances even with a progressive flow it should probably produce at times. OTOH- We can survive a mildly hostile Pac as long as we have a block to keep things underneath us. Speaking the obvious of course but these details are really important and if we are going to focus on anything other than "good god will the AO/NAO ever be negative in winter again?!" we should keep our eyes peeled on heights in NW canada and how active the STJ storm track is. As a side note, GEFS ensembles are hinting towards a breakdown of the near record breaking +AO going on right now and potentially moving towards negative. It's muddy and far out there in time. Could mean nothing but worth watching. We absolutely don't want to start December like we started Nov. Ack. There are also signs of the beginnings of a trough getting carved out south of the aleutions. Probably the rosy weenie glasses taking over but I still have a hunch we get a wintry type pattern to start Dec. +PNA / -EPO kinda stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Do you have a link to the N America view like you posted above? I can't find them on the UK site Open directory: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20151101/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 That's right Grit. John Wayne only needed one bullett as well as americas greatest crime stopping deputy "Barney Fife". The big ridge taking up shop in the northeast pac will bring big snows, even in Apex. Forget the nao. It's the pretty girl in grade school that sticks her nose up at us every winter. She'Ll never give us SE boys the time day. Hasn't in 5 years and this one will probably be no different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 All I'm saying is imagine all this gulf moisture tap we've been having the last two weeks, with a 1030 High in NY in January.....give me a nice +PNA/-EPO this year, like the last two and I like our chances even though the timing will have to be right with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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