packbacker Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 The new GEFS keeping hinting at a more typical nino pattern with some blocking day 10+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Here is the full post from my facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris Thanks for looking, please share and like my pages (if you want) CS 2015-2016 Winter Temps.PNG CS 2015-2016 Winter PRECIP.PNG Thanks Chris, I think that will be very close to the way it turns out with perhaps the biggest winners area sliding a tad to the East. Not sure if it makes it all the way to Wake county for all you Raleigh peeps, but it will be VERY close IMO. Feel pretty good that GSO west will do very well, with the potential for a substantial near record snowfall for the foothills into Eastern Tennessee. Where the High sets up (assuming it does and we don't fall prey to super progressive pattern fueled by the raging Nino in the Pac) in Canada will largely determine whether we can cash in for most of us this Winter. Agree with the Ice potential as being a constant threat (in early morning hours especially) also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Like the forecast, Chris! I hope it verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Here is the full post from my facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris Thanks for looking, please share and like my pages (if you want) CS 2015-2016 Winter Temps.PNG CS 2015-2016 Winter PRECIP.PNG Looks like a winner Chris. The only thing I would do is pull the ice signature a little bit away from the coast. Then still have the above normal snow/ice for those areas. Sorry, that's just my GIS cartography background coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Here is the full post from my facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris Thanks for looking, please share and like my pages (if you want) CS 2015-2016 Winter Temps.PNG CS 2015-2016 Winter PRECIP.PNG My thoughts exactly. Many of our winter storms will have to rely on CAD events, so there will be a tight gradient between snow, ice, and plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 It would be nice to have this pattern of having precip sticking around for two or three days in the winter when it is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 It would be nice to have this pattern of having precip sticking around for two or three days in the winter when it is cold enough for snow. Wouldn't that be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I definitely know better than to look too far into the "modeled" future, but there could be some signs that we will see favorable indices by late November. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml (but) 12z GFS looks warm at day 14 (again not trying to look at specifics): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=336ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151103+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Thanks everyone for the kind words! I appreciate it. Now, we have the players getting ready for battle, but how are they going to perform is always the biggest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 Nino has gone beast mode. Over +1.5 in all regions on Allan's graphs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 This basin wide Nino strength levels will make forecasting the winter much tougher because it is so rare to see it and try to pigeon hole it just as another El Nino, it clearly is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Nino has gone beast mode. Over +1.5 in all regions on Allan's graphs How is the PAC jet not going to be just terrorizing this winter.....#warmwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 How is the PAC jet not going to be just terrorizing this winter.....#warmwinter It all comes down to how the northern stream interacts with the subtropical jet. With a predominately positive PDO. I don't think we will see a prolonged flood of warm air off the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 If this weather keeps up, i wont mind this winter. Hell, I walked out of work without a jacket!!! I'm off next week, so that will give me time to make my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Siberian snow cover continues to look good. It's been discussed that week 44 (about now) was a critical end date to evaluate snow cover. This goes with the theory that Siberian snow cover growth during October can influence the AO for the following winter (greater snow coverage = > chance of -AO). Last year didn't work out, but let's hope it work this year. We now need snow cover to start building in south Canada and northern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Siberian snow cover continues to look good. It's been discussed that week 44 (about now) was a critical end date to evaluate snow cover. This goes with the theory that Siberian snow cover growth during October can influence the AO for the following winter (greater snow coverage = > chance of -AO). Last year didn't work out, but let's hope it work this year. We now need snow cover to start building in south Canada and northern US.Yeah last year we had huge loses of snow cover the past two weeks but this year was completely opposite with huge gains driving up the snowcover to 4th all time. This will be a great test for the sai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Gotta love this: Posted on another board. Hopefully it verefies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Grit - interesting the NPac low is so much stronger in +QBO v/s -QBO winters....I wonder why, I know it's a small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 +QBO Nov Nino's....hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Some very close similarities to the expected Nov pattern this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Gotta love this: Posted on another board. Hopefully it verefies. Looks like we may have problems finding a good source for cold air. Anomalies of that magnitude over Canada will not provide cold enough temps to survive moderation as it moves south.I think we may find our negative anomalies caused by cool high temps while our low temps stay well above freezing (35 to 45). Cold rain is on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Lot of truth to your statement weatherfide. Unlike winters of the past 4 or 5 years, I am firmly in the camp that January will be a winter precip banner month, espeacilly in my neck of woods. Havent exactly captilized on this month like we should climo wise in several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Looks like we may have problems finding a good source for cold air. Anomalies of that magnitude over Canada will not provide cold enough temps to survive moderation as it moves south.I think we may find our negative anomalies caused by cool high temps while our low temps stay well above freezing (35 to 45). Cold rain is on the way... The reason for anomalies like this over Canada is due to the extreme blocking forcing the cold air south. Instead of staying bottled up in Canada it amplifies the flow and forces the cold air south. At the same time they'll be warm due to this blocking but we would be quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 The reason for anomalies like this over Canada is due to the extreme blocking forcing the cold air south. Instead of staying bottled up in Canada it amplifies the flow and forces the cold air south. At the same time they'll be warm due to this blocking but we would be quite cold. I agree, we've seen this in the past; where there's actually less difference in temperatures from north to south. Chicago might have a low of 20 degrees and be 3 degrees above normal; whereas Atlanta could be 29 with sleet and be 5 degrees below normal. We just need the north to be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Signs overwhelming do not support a cold southeast. Sure we can find a few models to show what we want but the majority don't support what some of you are hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Signs overwhelming do not support a cold southeast. Sure we can find a few models to show what we want but the majority don't support what some of you are hoping for. What signs? Also most mets (who have put out winter forecast) are indicating a higher chances for winter storms and below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Signs overwhelming do not support a cold southeast. Sure we can find a few models to show what we want but the majority don't support what some of you are hoping for. Actually I'd say a majority do support a colder than normal southeast. JAMSTEC, JMA, NMME and most of the models in it's suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Signs overwhelming do not support a cold southeast. Sure we can find a few models to show what we want but the majority don't support what some of you are hoping for. Not sure what signs you mean? Analogs suggest a warm/stormy November-December and warm early January. After this the pattern will shift to a cold one and late January through March should be fun. February should be the coldest month and with an active southern jet there will be plenty of chances. We have analogs suggest a fun winter ahead, long range models and quite a few forecasters calling for a cold stormy weather. There won't be anything to track until January for our area but when the switch occurs it'll be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Signs overwhelming do not support a cold southeast. Sure we can find a few models to show what we want but the majority don't support what some of you are hoping for. lol, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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