Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Here is the full post from my facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

https://twitter.com/wxmanchris

Thanks for looking, please share and like my pages (if you want) :)

 

attachicon.gifCS 2015-2016 Winter Temps.PNG

attachicon.gifCS 2015-2016 Winter PRECIP.PNG

Thanks Chris, I think that will be very close to the way it turns out with perhaps the biggest winners area sliding a tad to the East. Not sure if it makes it all the way to Wake county for all you Raleigh peeps, but it will be VERY close IMO. Feel pretty good that GSO west will do very well, with the potential for a substantial near record snowfall for the foothills into Eastern Tennessee. Where the High sets up (assuming it does and we don't fall prey to super progressive pattern fueled by the raging Nino in the Pac) in Canada will largely determine whether we can cash in for most of us this Winter. Agree with the Ice potential as being a constant threat (in early morning hours especially) also

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the full post from my facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

https://twitter.com/wxmanchris

Thanks for looking, please share and like my pages (if you want) :)

 

attachicon.gifCS 2015-2016 Winter Temps.PNG

attachicon.gifCS 2015-2016 Winter PRECIP.PNG

Looks like a winner Chris. The only thing I would do is pull the ice signature a little bit away from the coast. Then still have the above normal snow/ice for those areas. Sorry, that's just my GIS cartography background coming out.     

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the full post from my facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

https://twitter.com/wxmanchris

Thanks for looking, please share and like my pages (if you want) :)

 

attachicon.gifCS 2015-2016 Winter Temps.PNG

attachicon.gifCS 2015-2016 Winter PRECIP.PNG

 

My thoughts exactly. Many of our winter storms will have to rely on CAD events, so there will be a tight gradient between snow, ice, and plain rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I definitely know better than to look too far into the "modeled" future, but there could be some signs that we will see favorable indices by late November. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

(but) 12z GFS looks warm at day 14 (again not trying to look at specifics):

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=336ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151103+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Siberian snow cover continues to look good. It's been discussed that week 44 (about now) was a critical end date to evaluate snow cover. This goes with the theory that Siberian snow cover growth during October can influence the AO for the following winter (greater snow coverage = > chance of -AO). Last year didn't work out, but let's hope it work this year. We now need snow cover to start building in south Canada and northern US.

 

 

 

post-940-0-09773200-1446636368_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Siberian snow cover continues to look good. It's been discussed that week 44 (about now) was a critical end date to evaluate snow cover. This goes with the theory that Siberian snow cover growth during October can influence the AO for the following winter (greater snow coverage = > chance of -AO). Last year didn't work out, but let's hope it work this year. We now need snow cover to start building in south Canada and northern US.

Yeah last year we had huge loses of snow cover the past two weeks but this year was completely opposite with huge gains driving up the snowcover to 4th all time. This will be a great test for the sai.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gotta love this: Posted on another board. Hopefully it verefies. 

 

 

Looks like we may have problems finding a good source for cold air. Anomalies of that magnitude over Canada will not provide cold enough temps to survive moderation as it moves south.I think we may find our negative anomalies caused by cool high temps while our low temps stay well above freezing (35 to 45). Cold rain is on the way...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like we may have problems finding a good source for cold air. Anomalies of that magnitude over Canada will not provide cold enough temps to survive moderation as it moves south.I think we may find our negative anomalies caused by cool high temps while our low temps stay well above freezing (35 to 45). Cold rain is on the way...

The reason for anomalies like this over Canada is due to the extreme blocking forcing the cold air south. Instead of staying bottled up in Canada it amplifies the flow and forces the cold air south. At the same time they'll be warm due to this blocking but we would be quite cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The reason for anomalies like this over Canada is due to the extreme blocking forcing the cold air south. Instead of staying bottled up in Canada it amplifies the flow and forces the cold air south. At the same time they'll be warm due to this blocking but we would be quite cold.

I agree, we've seen this in the past; where there's actually less difference in temperatures from north to south. Chicago might have a low of 20 degrees and be 3 degrees above normal; whereas Atlanta could be 29 with sleet and be 5 degrees below normal. We just need the north to be cold enough.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Signs overwhelming do not support a cold southeast. Sure we can find a few models to show what we want but the majority don't support what some of you are hoping for.

 

Actually I'd say a majority do support a colder than normal southeast. JAMSTEC, JMA, NMME and most of the models in it's suite. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Signs overwhelming do not support a cold southeast. Sure we can find a few models to show what we want but the majority don't support what some of you are hoping for.

Not sure what signs you mean? Analogs suggest a warm/stormy November-December and warm early January. After this the pattern will shift to a cold one and late January through March should be fun. February should be the coldest month and with an active southern jet there will be plenty of chances. We have analogs suggest a fun winter ahead, long range models and quite a few forecasters calling for a cold stormy weather. There won't be anything to track until January for our area but when the switch occurs it'll be exciting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...