Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Well, for our area it's roughly a coin flip. Half the moderate+ nino's were cold for Dec. But, if you restrict it to strong+ nino's then only 1 out 6 was cold (2009). High odds of a warm Dec. I know in 97-98 we had our only snow of the season in December so I'm hoping this year will be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I know in 97-98 we had our only snow of the season in December so I'm hoping this year will be the same. Lets hope for more than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Lets hope for more than that... well at my latitude I can't be too greedy. Even a light dusting would be an improvement over last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 well at my latitude I can't be too greedy. Even a light dusting would be an improvement over last year. I hear you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 November is looking to get kind of toasty! That should be great, unless the ridge locks in until April! Don't think it can't happen!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The last time we had a really warm November like this one could be was November 1985. Winter weather was no where to be found that winter. Neither was much rain for that matter. That spring and summer turned into a true disaster with a drought we haven't equaled since. South Carolina made the national news that summer because hay had to be brought in from the midwest to keep livestock from starving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Not sure if anyone noticed, but DT recently stated the el nino could be a modiki style one which would be great for winter weather. I'm assuming that is based on the sudden decrease in water temps for 1.2? If the PDO holds strong this winter will be nothing like '98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 November is looking to get kind of toasty! That should be great, unless the ridge locks in until April! Don't think it can't happen!? yeah I have a feeling my first freeze wont come during the first week of november, which is what our average is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The last time we had a really warm November like this one could be was November 1985. Winter weather was no where to be found that winter. Neither was much rain for that matter. That spring and summer turned into a true disaster with a drought we haven't equaled since. South Carolina made the national news that summer because hay had to be brought in from the midwest to keep livestock from starving.There was no drought worse than 1993 summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The last time we had a really warm November like this one could be was November 1985. Winter weather was no where to be found that winter. Neither was much rain for that matter. That spring and summer turned into a true disaster with a drought we haven't equaled since. South Carolina made the national news that summer because hay had to be brought in from the midwest to keep livestock from starving. These were all the mod+ nino's (post 1950) that were warm in Nov and all were very snowy in the winter, atleast here in NC and I assume in GSP too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Not sure if anyone noticed, but DT recently stated the el nino could be a modiki style one which would be great for winter weather. I'm assuming that is based on the sudden decrease in water temps for 1.2? If the PDO holds strong this winter will be nothing like '98. Don't think it will become a Modoki. The waters will still be warm near the SA coast.The natural decay of the El Nino favors it becoming more central-west based with time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Don't think it will become a Modoki. The waters will still be warm near the SA coast.The natural decay of the El Nino favors it becoming more central-west based with time though. Ok. Even being central-west based would more than likely be a better outcome than east based I would imagine. Still a lot to watch with water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Ok. Even being central-west based would more than likely be a better outcome than east based I would imagine. Still a lot to watch with water temps. Yeah, that's one of the reasons why you get a better chance for 'winter' later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 There was no drought worse than 1993 summer 2007 drought was pretty bad too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 There was no drought worse than 1993 summer You are right and wrong. You are right in that from June to September of 1993 was by far the worst 4 month stretch we have had. What made 1986 unequaled is the fact the the winter and spring of that year was awfully dry too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 These were all the mod+ nino's (post 1950) that were warm in Nov and all were very snowy in the winter, atleast here in NC and I assume in GSP too. Yeah most of them did feature nice winters so we do want a mild November, but not a very warm one. If I remember right, Nov of 1985 had many days with temps here of 75-80+ and I can't remember another Nov quite like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yeah most of them did feature nice winters so we do want a mild November, but not a very warm one. If I remember right, Nov of 1985 had many days with temps here of 75-80+ and I can't remember another Nov quite like it. This warm November stat he was referring to only applies to + Enso's. That doesn't mean all winters with warm Novembers will be snowy. It is only the ones with moderate to strong El Ninos,... which is exactly what we are looking at this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I knew I could come here and read some spin about how this will be a cold winter after all. Not disappointed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Well its time to start the focus on the ne pacific. How it sets up and evolves over the next 4 weeks is going to tell us alot about how winter or the first half is gonna play out in the SE. Yes negative nao's are nice but they aren't going to help you sustain a 90 day climo avg that's seasonal or below normal temp wise. Usually if not when a negative nao locks in its the second half of winter when you begin the fight against climo, sun angles and all that jazz. So watch the pna. We know the southern jet is gonna produce this winter, it's a matter of how the split flow sets up. Could be a winter to remeber or a pac origin air deluge that leaves us all misearable Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 I knew I could come here and read some spin about how this will be a cold winter after all. Not disappointed! Dec-Mar temperature outcome in Charlotte for the top 10 strongest El Ninos (the numbers account for the 30yr avg for the applicable timeframe - e.g. for 1941, the temperature anomaly is against the 30yr avg of 1910-1940)... 1878: -1.1 (this one is actually for AVL against its 30yr avg, as I don't have CLT numbers for this year). 1998: +3.2 1889: -0.3 1983: +0.7 1941: -1.6 1973: +0.1 1903: +1.9 1897: -0.3 1958: -4.8 1966: -2.4 So, 2 warm, 4 cool, 4 near norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 HM says "this doesn't mean anything about snow outside of the SE USA and Rockies, where yes it will be above normal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Natural gas prices are plummeting on expectations of a warm winter. http://myfox8.com/2015/10/26/your-home-heating-bill-is-poised-to-tumble-this-year/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 http://myfox8.com/2015/10/26/weather-blog-winter-outlook/ Pretty good write up by Van Denton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Natural gas prices are plummeting on expectations of a warm winter. http://myfox8.com/2015/10/26/your-home-heating-bill-is-poised-to-tumble-this-year/ I know this all to well. 9% decline today. I hope lng starts soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Dec-Mar temperature outcome in Charlotte for the top 10 strongest El Ninos (the numbers account for the 30yr avg for the applicable timeframe - e.g. for 1941, the temperature anomaly is against the 30yr avg of 1910-1940)... 1878: -1.1 (this one is actually for AVL against its 30yr avg, as I don't have CLT numbers for this year). 1998: +3.2 1889: -0.3 1983: +0.7 1941: -1.6 1973: +0.1 1903: +1.9 1897: -0.3 1958: -4.8 1966: -2.4 So, 2 warm, 4 cool, 4 near norm I missed 1903, what an ugly winter, ++AO. Bucks the warm Nov and snowy winter too. Other 2 clunkers are 41 and 98. So 7 snowy and 3 duds, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf Allen's winter forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf Allen's winter forecast.. 41 is an interesting analog as SST wise it's a good match. It wasn't snowy for RDU but not because of cold but because it was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf Allen's winter forecast.. A cold and snowy winter for the southeast. I approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Siberia snow cover continues to look good. This of course going with the theory that October snow cover extent, and the monthly amount of increase, favor a negative AO for the winter......which didn't work out last year but we're still giving it a chance. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.