Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Cold and dry is 110% better than hot and humid. cold and dry is a heck of a lot better than cold and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 First ensemble run showing snow for NC...well this is the first time I have looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Obviously there are a lot of factors which will play into our wintry weather prospects but the 2 biggest keys for me are 1.How far South and West in the Pacific does the trough set up and 2. Where does the High set up in Canada. If the trough sets up south and a little west of the Aleutians, then the natural response would be a High setting up in mid-western Canada for the winter months of Jan-March. Assuming we get the trough where we want it and the High sets up in Western Canada (but not TOO far west) to go along with a strong, but decreasing Nino, we should have plenty of storms to track. With the cold water in the Atlantic north of 50 degrees, this should favor a -NAO with blocking in the right spot for us. Not sure how the NE would do in this set-up but the MA and SE should do very well in snow/ice storms.While a lot of folks are sweating out a 97-98 type winter because of the similar strength of the El Nino's, there are major differences in the SST pattern from that non winter year. The warmest water is much further West in the Pac this year than 97 and the cold pool of water in the N Atlantic is much further North. Throw in the warm water right off the NW US coast,as opposed to cold in 97, I have little fear (at this time) that we need to worry too much about a 97-98 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Anybody heard of the "Hudson Bay Ridge"? There was a post on the other forum, and it said the JMA is showing that and it's a crucial factor for getting snow and ice in the south!? " AL/GA could see 2-3. 4"+ storms this winter" !! That would most likely translate to the SC/NC zones hopefully!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Anybody heard of the "Hudson Bay Ridge"? There was a post on the other forum, and it said the JMA is showing that and it's a crucial factor for getting snow and ice in the south!? " AL/GA could see 2-3. 4"+ storms this winter" !! That would most likely translate to the SC/NC zones hopefully!? I always thought we wanted a trough. A big low parked right over the Hudson Bay is a recipe for cold in the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Anybody heard of the "Hudson Bay Ridge"? There was a post on the other forum, and it said the JMA is showing that and it's a crucial factor for getting snow and ice in the south!? " AL/GA could see 2-3. 4"+ storms this winter" !! That would most likely translate to the SC/NC zones hopefully!? Yeah and we want the ridge on the west side of Hudson Bay but not too far West. If right on the west bank, we tend to get some colder than normal air but still allow the storm track to come up from the gulf, but if it is too far West, we get extreme cold but not as much sotrminess/wintry precip due to the jet cutting up the Appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Very good read... https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 WSI posted a 3 month forecast which includes warmer than normal until December for the Southeast and then colder than normal for January. http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/big-northeast-us-cold-of-last-two-winters-not-likely-this-year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Very good read... https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/ Now I really like that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I like Allan's SST pages...shows nicely the warming and has a 30 day delta too...The 30 day delta shows nice warming in region 4 and some cooling in eastern region 3 into 1.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Now I really like that forecast. I like the storm tracks. Even the clippers can work for us some times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 I like the storm tracks. Even the clippers can work for us some times.Not in Upstate ! I can't think of one clipper that I even saw flurries from! Downslope is a killer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Not in Upstate ! I can't think of one clipper that I even saw flurries from! Downslope is a killer! Clippers FTL. They NEVER work period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Very good read... https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/ This article contradicts itself several times in regards to the SE anyway! Very first paragraph says SE will be above normal for winter. In the 2nd or 3rd paragraph, it says temperatures will be below normal below a line from Kansas City to DC to New England!? WTH? Conflicting statements on something put out to the public, made me lose interest and stop reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Did most of our great storms, like Jan 88, was there blocking and -NAO? Or were they thread the needle events ? Just curious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 This article contradicts itself several times in regards to the SE anyway! Very first paragraph says SE will be above normal for winter. In the 2nd or 3rd paragraph, it says temperatures will be below normal below a line from Kansas City to DC to New England!? WTH? Conflicting statements on something put out to the public, made me lose interest and stop reading! Your talking about the WSI article that GAStorm posted. I agree, I read it and it was a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Very good read... https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/ I'm not falling for the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Very good read... https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/ Now, that's a good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Robert at Wxsouth is hinting at a big storm coming sometime around the end of this month, maybe with some snow in the mountains. If this happens, we can kiss winter goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Your talking about the WSI article that GAStorm posted. I agree, I read it and it was a mess. Actually it was well-written, if you think about it from this perspective: next spring they can quote a few lines from it and say their forecast was correct, since it basically includes pretty much every possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Robert at Wxsouth is hinting at a big storm coming sometime around the end of this month, maybe with some snow in the mountains. If this happens, we can kiss winter goodbye.I've never wanted so badly for him to be wrong!!! If a monster storm hits and brings snow, even just to the Southern Apps, winter is definately over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I've never wanted so badly for him to be wrong!!! If a monster storm hits and brings snow, even just to the Southern Apps, winter is definately over! Well neither the 0z/6z GFS nor 0z Euro shows anything of the sort, so at least for the moment, we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I've never wanted so badly for him to be wrong!!! If a monster storm hits and brings snow, even just to the Southern Apps, winter is definately over! The mountains of NC see snow almost every year before Oct 31st. Now, having said that, it seems that based on past history, a monster storm in Oct seems to be the kiss of death for our winter. However, this Nino year might not behave as expected. I have a gut feeling that there might just be some surprises this winter. I am not so sure that most of Canada will torch as shown by every LR forecast out there. But what do I know, only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I've never wanted so badly for him to be wrong!!! If a monster storm hits and brings snow, even just to the Southern Apps, winter is definately over! It snowed in the mountains on October 17th and 18th, 2009 and it definitely didn't ruin our El Nino winter for that 09-10 winter. A multi-region storm and I might agree with you, however if it snows up here at the end of the month, I wouldn't look into much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Not in Upstate ! I can't think of one clipper that I even saw flurries from! Downslope is a killer! It happened once in the mid 90's from an Alberta clipper. It spread light and steady snow all through the Ohio Valley down through the western Carolina's. Started from around 10 o'clock to midnight on a Saturday night and snowed till around noon on Sunday. The ground was frozen and it all stuck. We probably got 3 to 4 inches out of it. And as well as I remember, it was a surprise to our local MET's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Well neither the 0z/6z GFS nor 0z Euro shows anything of the sort, so at least for the moment, we're good. Also, hoping Nov torches the conus. I do like that Oct will end being cold in the east. I always think a cold Oct and warm Nov bodes well, but who knows. I am less optimistic on this winter as far as a big winter than I was last winter. I am guessing we get some snow but probably end up in our typical...5-7" range...meh. Still hard to believe it's been since 2004 (12 years now) that we haven't had a double digit season. Previous longest stretch was 10 years back in 1912. We did go on a really good run after that streak was broken but not sure we are going to be so lucky. FYI...we typically average 3 10"+ winters every 10 years. #GWFTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 From everything I have read, it seems most mets think this winter will be pretty big for us. And it has been a while since we have had double digit snowfall. Longer than average. We're past due, and I think we collect this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Also, hoping Nov torches the conus. I do like that Oct will end being cold in the east. I always think a cold Oct and warm Nov bodes well, but who knows. I am less optimistic on this winter as far as a big winter than I was last winter. I am guessing we get some snow but probably end up in our typical...5-7" range...meh. Still hard to believe it's been since 2004 (12 years now) that we haven't had a double digit season. Previous longest stretch was 10 years back in 1912. We did go on a really good run after that streak was broken but not sure we are going to be so lucky. FYI...we typically average 3 10"+ winters every 10 years. #GWFTL Assuming the MJO continues on as forecast, November should end up at least partly in phase 3, which is warm this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 From everything I have read, it seems most mets think this winter will be pretty big for us. And it has been a while since we have had double digit snowfall. Longer than average. We're past due, and I think we collect this winter. Here is how we did in previous strong+ nino's...but we are on a quite a rough patch the past 30 years, until that changes I am pessimistic. I keep thinking our luck has to change but really it doesn't. It's like in roulette where red keeps hitting so you bet black thinking it has to change, it really doesn't. I do expect our mountains to be in good shape and the usual suspects (MA to the NE) will always do well. I think we have a much better chance at sub 3" winter than we do a 8"+ winter. 1958 - 7.9" 1966 - 12.3" 1973 - 11.3" 1983 - 11.8" 1998 - 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Here is how we did in previous strong+ nino's...but we are on a quite a rough patch the past 30 years, until that changes I am pessimistic. I keep thinking our luck has to change but really it doesn't. It's like in roulette where red keeps hitting so you bet black thinking it has to change, it really doesn't. I do expect our mountains to be in good shape and the usual suspects (MA to the NE) will always do well. I think we have a much better chance at sub 3" winter than we do a 8"+ winter. 1958 - 7.9" 1966 - 12.3" 1973 - 11.3" 1983 - 11.8" 1998 - 2.6" I think that's just being pessimistic. Of course it could end up that way, but from what everyone has been saying, that would really go against the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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