griteater Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 7 of the last 9 Decembers have seen above normal temperatures in Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 7 of the last 9 Decembers have seen above normal temperatures in CharlotteGreat info grit and Bob it's always a pleasure reading your analysis and ideas. Yes it seems like we have gone through several stretches that have had November come in cold only to warm up in December. Like last year we had a cold and snowy November then December turned mild. Same for two years ago. I remember we had snow on thanksgiving day then December came and it turned mild. I think the last cold December we had was back in 2010 I believe. Also the SAI has taken a hit the past two years. Last year was not even close but like Bob said Cohen never admitted it failed which it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Honestly I could see this coming winter kind of setting up like 2009/10....not in the sense that a big -NAO sets up shop but just in relation to how the storms that did setup often had a lot of mix issues east of the mountains for NC. Probably more big widespread systems vs. smaller regional storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Almost all mets who did a long range forecast for winter were calling for a big winter with above average snow and above average number of storms here. It was the most consensus I have ever seen for a big winter here since I have been on these boards. February is the only thing that saved us from being below average. WxSouth was not the only one that missed it. If I am not mistaken, wasn't most forecasts predicated on the Nino that only just recently showed up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Burger, careful with the 09-10 talk. Folks up my way may start taking their clothes off. lol One thing that doesn't have me worried much...yet...is a 97-98 redux. Outside of the specific enso #s so far, the overall pac sst config just doesn't make a good match. This could change of course but from what myself and everyone else is seeing is this nino is going to likely end up more basin wide. A monster NE pac vortex that just destroys the conus with pac air just doesn't seem that likely. Anything is possible but I wouldn't put my money on it. Especially 4+ months out. Lack of meaningful blocking since 2011 is quite a stretch but far from unprecedented. 12-13 looks good on paper but the season was ruined by a very hostile npac. I'm not sure how you guys did in 12-13 but it was so bad up my way I would pay to have those memories removed. There are a # of +ao/nao streaks in the past. 88-95 was a pretty ugly stretch. Early 70's weren't that pretty either. In my mind, the two most important pieces this winter is do we actually get a meaningful blocking patter during DJF and does the typical nino area of lp in the npac persist far enough west? There is really no way to know one way or the other. It's generally safe to hedge that mod-strong nino events favor at least some blocking periods later on like in Feb. I'll graph the daily epo data sometime before fall but when I looked over the #'s it seemed a pretty equal split between +/- epo base states during mod-strong nino winters. Pretty much a coin flip. But we don't really have to bank on the epo (unlike the last 2 winters) if our long blocking buddies decide to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Honestly I could see this coming winter kind of setting up like 2009/10....not in the sense that a big -NAO sets up shop but just in relation to how the storms that did setup often had a lot of mix issues east of the mountains for NC. Probably more big widespread systems vs. smaller regional storms. That was a good winter for here in the Mountains. I was actually stationed in Maryland around that time and went through 'Snomageddan' and 'Snowpocalypse'. That was a helluva time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 In my mind, the two most important pieces this winter is do we actually get a meaningful blocking patter during DJF and does the typical nino area of lp in the npac persist far enough west? Agree Bob, those are the 2 biggies in terms of the overall seasonal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 If I am not mistaken, wasn't most forecasts predicated on the Nino that only just recently showed up? It ended up being a borderline weak nino....so, pretty much as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Burger, careful with the 09-10 talk. Folks up my way may start taking their clothes off. lol One thing that doesn't have me worried much...yet...is a 97-98 redux. Outside of the specific enso #s so far, the overall pac sst config just doesn't make a good match. This could change of course but from what myself and everyone else is seeing is this nino is going to likely end up more basin wide. A monster NE pac vortex that just destroys the conus with pac air just doesn't seem that likely. Anything is possible but I wouldn't put my money on it. Especially 4+ months out. Lack of meaningful blocking since 2011 is quite a stretch but far from unprecedented. 12-13 looks good on paper but the season was ruined by a very hostile npac. I'm not sure how you guys did in 12-13 but it was so bad up my way I would pay to have those memories removed. There are a # of +ao/nao streaks in the past. 88-95 was a pretty ugly stretch. Early 70's weren't that pretty either. In my mind, the two most important pieces this winter is do we actually get a meaningful blocking patter during DJF and does the typical nino area of lp in the npac persist far enough west? There is really no way to know one way or the other. It's generally safe to hedge that mod-strong nino events favor at least some blocking periods later on like in Feb. I'll graph the daily epo data sometime before fall but when I looked over the #'s it seemed a pretty equal split between +/- epo base states during mod-strong nino winters. Pretty much a coin flip. But we don't really have to bank on the epo (unlike the last 2 winters) if our long blocking buddies decide to show up. Lol yea I probably should have clarified a little bit as 09/10 wasn't the blockbuster for my area as it was for many just north of me. There were two big storms for me, one of them had a lot of sleet mixed in and the other was a decent snowfall. Mostly there was a ton of cold rain that winter and just general mixing storms. For that reason I can see it being similar this year. More precip with below average temps says there is more of a likelihood of big widespread storms with more of them being mainly rain vs. shot after shot of wintry precip. Nothing scientific I'm using here just taking the safe bet I suppose. By the way 11/12 was our horrible winter here (please help me forget). That pacjet just killed us that year. 12/13 was saved by the big Feb. snow we got. 11/12 I lucked out with one fast moving synoptic snow storm that lasted 2 hours but laid down around 4 inches. Many around me were not so lucky . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 High School, College and Pro football teams will be hitting the practice field next week and the winter outlook thread has begun. Fall must be just around the corner!!! I used to really hang on the analogs but the last few years have shown the perils of putting too much faith in them. We all know by now that there are many factors that influence our winter weather and it's wise to not put too much stock in any one teleconnection or prediction. Having said that, it's my opinion that this year we'll need the NAO's help if the Nino turns out to be as strong as progged. At least we have seen signs of blocking this summer but will it continue is the question? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 11-12 was a total disaster here too. Those 2 back to back were just awful. 11-12 was worse with the #'s here but the epic failure late season in 13 was just too much to take. I could go over the details of a particular storm but I can't bear it. Let's just say we were warned, snow was falling hard at 1am, and the multi year 2" storm snow drought was about to fall. Then the wheels came off... I guess the funny thing was the Fed Gov closed for absolutely nothing and Cantore was broadcasting from DC. The live shots were comical. It was the perfect mega fail to cap off the long duration fail period. lol. After the Jan 2011 storm, DC airport recorded a whopping 5.8" of snow from Feb 11 through March 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 Nice Grit! I like the write-up, but I'm fully prepared for a warm winter this year. I hope we get a big blockbuster though. Thanks CR. Here are the temperatures for the 5 strongest Ninos on record (Charlotte data). The big and strongly east based 97-98 version is the warmest and most recent in our minds. Otherwise, the Jan-Feb numbers are quite good. * 1878 data is as estimate based off NOAA monthly reanalysis maps...otherwise, this is station data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 Here are the winters that were wall-to-wall cold or warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Here are the winters that were wall-to-wall cold or warm... wow, January 1949 was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3058&cm_ven=TW_BLOG_LB_073015_5 Some of the impacts from El Niño across the United States are fairly straightforward: hurricane suppression in the Atlantic, for example. Then there’s snowfall in the Northeast, where El Niño is just one of several big factors at work. We touched on the complexities of this topic in Tuesday’s roundup post on typical El Niño impacts during North American winter. (Jeff Masters posted an update earlier today on tropical activity in the Atlantic and Pacific, including an area of interest being tracked in the eastern Atlantic.)Two main elements to watch in the upcoming winter are: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3058&cm_ven=TW_BLOG_LB_073015_5 Some of the impacts from El Niño across the United States are fairly straightforward: hurricane suppression in the Atlantic, for example. Then there’s snowfall in the Northeast, where El Niño is just one of several big factors at work. We touched on the complexities of this topic in Tuesday’s roundup post on typical El Niño impacts during North American winter. (Jeff Masters posted an update earlier today on tropical activity in the Atlantic and Pacific, including an area of interest being tracked in the eastern Atlantic.) Two main elements to watch in the upcoming winter are: Cold and moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3058&cm_ven=TW_BLOG_LB_073015_5 Some of the impacts from El Niño across the United States are fairly straightforward: hurricane suppression in the Atlantic, for example. Then there’s snowfall in the Northeast, where El Niño is just one of several big factors at work. We touched on the complexities of this topic in Tuesday’s roundup post on typical El Niño impacts during North American winter. (Jeff Masters posted an update earlier today on tropical activity in the Atlantic and Pacific, including an area of interest being tracked in the eastern Atlantic.) Two main elements to watch in the upcoming winter are: SMI (Social Media Index) and European snowfall maps? Oh, and regarding the recent winters, 11-12 and 12-13 were absolutely horrid here. (See my signature.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Robert and JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 SMI (Social Media Index) and European snowfall maps? Oh, and regarding the recent winters, 11-12 and 12-13 were absolutely horrid here. (See my signature.) 11-12, 12-13, 14-15 were all horrid here. That's 3 out of 4 winters. Very similar to the horrible streak of bad winters we had from about 2003 to 2007. ATL is due for the elusive BIG one this coming winter. Its been almost 33 years since ATL had a snowstorm of 6" or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 11-12 was a total disaster here too. Those 2 back to back were just awful. 11-12 was worse with the #'s here but the epic failure late season in 13 was just too much to take. I could go over the details of a particular storm but I can't bear it. Let's just say we were warned, snow was falling hard at 1am, and the multi year 2" storm snow drought was about to fall. Then the wheels came off... I guess the funny thing was the Fed Gov closed for absolutely nothing and Cantore was broadcasting from DC. The live shots were comical. It was the perfect mega fail to cap off the long duration fail period. lol. After the Jan 2011 storm, DC airport recorded a whopping 5.8" of snow from Feb 11 through March 13. I am starting to tear up for you guys, the painful misses... :-(( And yet you guys are 175% of climo the past 6 winters :-))) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 I am starting to tear up for you guys, the painful misses... :-(( And yet you guys are 175% of climo the past 6 winters :-))) Ha! You won't hear me complain much this winter if it sucks in the MA. We're due for a dud. I'm ready for it. I graphed the epo for DJF for the previous top 5 nino events and posted in the MA subforum. Not much of a signal either way but expecting the epo to save winter again could get some feelings hurt. I would like to think the atlantic cooperates at some point this winter. It can't suck forever...can it? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45991-winter-2015-2016-speculation-and-discussion/?p=3640848 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Ha! You won't hear me complain much this winter if it sucks in the MA. We're due for a dud. I'm ready for it. I graphed the epo for DJF for the previous top 5 nino events and posted in the MA subforum. Not much of a signal either way but expecting the epo to save winter again could get some feelings hurt. I would like to think the atlantic cooperates at some point this winter. It can't suck forever...can it? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45991-winter-2015-2016-speculation-and-discussion/?p=3640848 The sucky Atlantic is really been a thorn in our sides, especially the further south. It can't suck forever...or can it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 I wonder if eastern NC will have more snow than the Triangle again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Robert and JB? JB and DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCWEATHER Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 well the skies have healed this summer i bet winter will have the fuel from the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 I wonder if eastern NC will have more snow than the Triangle again this year. You may rely on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 I wonder if eastern NC will have more snow than the Triangle again this year. I really hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Courtesy of liveweatherblog.com: Sounds like a 14/15 winter redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Courtesy : Firsthand Weather Read this statement and remember as we head into winter, most of us have realized this to be true, thread the needle/ borderline events! Super cold usually = dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 We've been on a good run of winters for the most part since 2008-2009. Good times to live in the Southeast after all the warmth and blazing that occurred between 2004-2008. The analogs and indices certainly look good for another average/above average winter once again. We've been on the end-of-winter hype train for the last two winters with an epic ends to both winters (great February/March in 2014 and a great Fab Feb in 2015), so maybe we'll turn the tables and have a good start to winter and torch towards the end this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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