Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That 1 storm was very nice, but that was it for upstate SC that winter. 86/87 or 82/83 would both be better for us The 91/92 winter was just awful.

If all we had was one event a year, and it was like jan 88, I would take it! The powder, temps in teens, long duration , on the ground for like 2 weeks, it could be 70 every other day of the winter! I will never see another event like that in my life in the Carolinas , but will remember it my whole life!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are there any new seasonal models out? The latest CFS still torching?

I do love the cutoff though, Pack.

We are only 21 days away from the day I received my first snow last year !! Winter is near! Bring it! Looking forward to alot of bowling balls, ice storms and strong wedgies this winter, it's going to be epicer than ever!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are only 21 days away from the day I received my first snow last year !! Winter is near! Bring it! Looking forward to alot of bowling balls, ice storms and strong wedgies this winter, it's going to be epicer than ever!

 

If I were a betting man, I'd have to say there is a chance for severe in spots maybe even December just by past history.  Hope not. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Steady drop in temps until mid Jan then warmup? Deff not as cold as last years CFS runs.

CFSv2_KCLT_seasonal.png

Edit: Excited to see cold rain's CPC map Meme's this winter :D

Hopefully, the CFS will start coming around to colder. We seem to have several things in our favor:

1) Basin wide Nino (although I'd like to see the eastern regions cool some)

2 ) Several seasonal models show favorable patterns, particularly the 2nd half

3) Declining solar

4) Siberian snow cover looks to increase over the next week or two (although we will have to watch the last few days of the month for melting like last year)

5) Seems like some evidence points to increased blocking potential, based on summer blocking pattern

6) There seems to be a propensity for favorably tracking cut-offs so far this year

7) So far, no big October storms on the horizon

Things against:

1) Strong Nino (maybe the STJ overwhelms?)

2 ) Recent tendency for no blocking in winter

3) Cooling in the GOA (though maybe we've had some renewed warming over the last few days?)

4) Feel free to add more here....

And I'm looking forward to some fine CPC charts myself! They will probably roll out in December. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are only 21 days away from the day I received my first snow last year !! Winter is near! Bring it! Looking forward to alot of bowling balls, ice storms and strong wedgies this winter, it's going to be epicer than ever!

Your November storm killed our killer winter last year. Let's hold off till December this year, k? Cut-offs are looking good so far!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your November storm killed our killer winter last year. Let's hold off till December this year, k? Cut-offs are looking good so far!

One thing I think may or may not have some merit is that with the super typhoon recurving and really tanking the AO and the nao did that have any downstream effects on the pattern and the state of the AO through winter especially the strength of the PV? I could be over analysing this but just thought about that last year.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I think may or may not have some merit is that with the super typhoon recurving and really tanking the AO and the nao did that have any downstream effects on the pattern and the state of the AO through winter especially the strength of the PV? I could be over analysing this but just thought about that last year.

 

I think the effect of recurving typhoons is temporary.  It seems to often induce a colder east, but I don't think it creates a seasonal pattern.  I'm hoping the background state is for a -NAO/-AO this year, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

 

Euro's October update came out Wednesday and it was pretty good. Look at the MA forum winter thread. I'd link you but I'm on my phone and I'm all thumbs. :(

 

Yep, good stuff over there.  Lots of supervolcano talk too! :)

 

Latest UK seasonal looks good...

 

2cat_20151001_temp2m_months35_north_amer

 

Looks good.  Do they just give you a composite?  Or do they break it out by month as well?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...