packbacker Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Euro and UK seasonals should be out tomorrow. 2 weeks from now our avg high drop below 80F, another month or so below 70F...tick tock tick tock...#winter2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 NASA GEOS-5 UPDATE DJF 2M Temp Anomalies DJF PRECIP DJF 500mb January & February are really cold...JFM has a strong -EPO & -NAO signal JFM 2M Temp Anomalies **Precip is almost identical JFM 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 Sounds like today's Euro seasonal at 500mb for winter has an Aleutian Low, NW Canadian ridging, and split flow with lower heights across the south (more moderate nino like than strong nino)...but +NAO. Pacific pattern sounds very good, Atlantic pattern not so much. All in all, the seasonal modeling has looked quite good thus far, minus the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 NMME PAGE **UPDATED**First, let's look at LAST MONTH'S UPDATETODAY'S UPDATE2m TEMP ANOMALIESDFJ SST'sPRECIP ANOMALIESPretty good overall agreement of the pattern with the exception of the CFS v.2 & IMME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 ^ Texas for the Biblical winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Haven't looked too much into it, but it seems we'd have a better chance of cold/wet combo into Jan and Feb. I saw some articles about this Nino possibly rivaling that one from those years though. I have heard that it wont be like the 97-98 Nino. I sure hope its not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 So is 25 and dry. What is so wrong with rain? Didnt notice the drought in the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 The best and most snow I have seen in my life in the south , was with the temp in the mid teens and 14-16 inches of powder! Sometimes it's good to not worry about whether or not the cold will be there! Those are very rare in the south. Most of the time, big arctic highs shove the moisture straight down to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 What is so wrong with rain? Didnt notice the drought in the Carolinas?If it didnt happen over his house, he didnt notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 If it didnt happen over his house, he didnt notice More like If it didnt happen over his house, it doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Good write up here... http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2015/09/08/el-nino-update-and-cpc-constructed-analog-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 What is so wrong with rain? Didnt notice the drought in the Carolinas? I don't like it, unless it is with thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 9, 2015 Author Share Posted September 9, 2015 Was reading back through my initial post in this thread from late July, and.......I still it like...can't think of anything I'd change at this point. We'll see what happens going into October as we kick out of summer mode and into fall El Nino mode. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46672-winter-15-16-discussion/?p=3637122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 UK seasonal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Spot checking some past +ENSO's with a Sept that had a dominating west coast trough with east coast ridge...very active winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 ^^ Cool and wet! Looks like a pretty classic El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Spot checking some past +ENSO's with a Sept that had a dominating west coast trough with east coast ridge...very active winters...Thanks pack for the stats man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 14, 2015 Author Share Posted September 14, 2015 UK seasonal... Here's the UKMet 500mb pack. The favorable modeling like the UKMet have a pattern that looks more like a moderate nino than a strong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/643802278332207104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/643802278332207104 Could be right. It really gets to the point that we really don't know how this winter will end up. Yes, we'll probably get more moisture (el nino) but the temps are the wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/643802278332207104 Could be right. It really gets to the point that we really don't know how this winter will end up. Yes, we'll probably get more moisture (el nino) but the temps are the wild card. Ummm.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201409/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/643802278332207104 So if I'm looking at this map right, it shows most of the south having a normal winter with cooler temps towards the end of winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Ummm.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201409/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html So that was the forecast the model had at this same point last year? If so, just looking at RDU it did ok until February. December and January washed each other out to neutral but February was 9 degrees below normal. But it's hard when looking at single three month forecast maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 CFS is pretty awful. I wouldn't put much trust into it. Go with the Euro seasonal, or JAMSTEC or the SST CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 I'm not really going with any modeling. I like the idea of an El Nino during Winter for the Southeast as a whole. More storm chances bring more chances for them to meet up with the cold air vs less storms. Looking forward to the upcoming Winter season. Down my way, may have to wait until Mid Jan-Late Feb though. If I were a betting man, I'd suggest there will be quite a few Winter storm chances this year. Some for many of us who are used to being right on the "outside" looking in. I surely learned to not put too much into pre-season forecasts and analogs after last year. Just the overall El Nino is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 The warmest and least snowiest scenario will most likely end up correct...especially with a strong Nino! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 The warmest and least snowiest scenario will most likely end up correct...especially with a strong Nino! But 2 of our most epic winters came during the strong El Ninos of 82-83 and 91-92 ! I would say chances are extremely high that we will get more snow this winter than last winter. In fact, it's almost a guarantee ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 But 2 of our most epic winters came during the strong El Ninos of 82-83 and 91-92 ! I would say chances are extremely high that we will get more snow this winter than last winter. In fact, it's almost a guarantee ! That's the KOD right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 That's the KOD right there! its not hard to guarantee a better winter when you only saw 10 flakes the year before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 its not hard to guarantee a better winter when you only saw 10 flakes the year before They all lived in GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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