stadiumwave Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/monthly.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201507/carealtime.html Thanks much!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 SST analog forecast UPDATED TODAY.Looks like a basin wide Nino...pretty impressive:SST's500mb2M Temps That doesn't have a very cold look. More of a cool look due to the cloudiness we will likely experience from the active STJ. If it was a cold look the 500mb pattern would look much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Looks a little blocky to me! The higher heights over Greenland area look good on paper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 That doesn't have a very cold look. More of a cool look due to the cloudiness we will likely experience from the active STJ. If it was a cold look the 500mb pattern would look much different.Looks like 57-58 to me. Also very close to JAMSTEC.That's a cold, snowy winter. I have no clue what your looking at. Deep, cold Arctic air is usually less during Cold Nino winters (2002-03) but below normal temps for the average of DJF & above normal precip is a very good winter outlook if you like winter. And that particular update is a bummer fir those desiring a torch Nino winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Looks like 57-58 to me. Also very close to JAMSTEC. That's a cold, snowy winter. I have no clue what your looking at. Deep, cold Arctic air is usually less during Cold Nino winters (2002-03) but below normal temps for the average of DJF & above normal precip is a very good winter outlook if you like winter. And that particular update is a bummer fir those desiring a torch Nino winter. You're wasting your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Looks like 57-58 to me. Also very close to JAMSTEC. That's a cold, snowy winter. I have no clue what your looking at. Deep, cold Arctic air is usually less during Cold Nino winters (2002-03) but below normal temps for the average of DJF & above normal precip is a very good winter outlook if you like winter. And that particular update is a bummer fir those desiring a torch Nino winter. I don't see a trof over the east in that 500mb pattern. It looks stormy but not deep arctic cold. JMO. I don't see a Nino torch either. I haven't been calling for that this year. I see a flood of pacific air this winter which will lead to lots of cloudiness and cooler than normal temps but I think we will be missing the arctic cold for the most part this year. Again JMO. I think those charts illustrate this description pretty well. I don't think that equals a cold and snowy winter. I'm not saying I think we torch and will get no storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 I don't see a trof over the east in that 500mb pattern. It looks stormy but not deep arctic cold. JMO. I don't see a Nino torch either. I haven't been calling for that this year. I see a flood of pacific air this winter which will lead to lots of cloudiness and cooler than normal temps but I think we will be missing the arctic cold for the most part this year. Again JMO. I think those charts illustrate this description pretty well. I don't think that equals a cold and snowy winter. I'm not saying I think we torch and will get no storms.Do you see a trough in this 500mb pattern? What did that winter look like: The SST CA forecast is weatherbell's winter forecast to a tee...whether I agree with there forecast or not. Please remember that above normal anomalies over Canada is still cold air compared to our averages. We didn't have many Arctic outbreaks at all in 2003-03 but it was a great snowy winter in my neck of the woods. I'm using 2002-03 as a comparison that you don't have to have the severe Arctic blasts like the last 2 winters to have a great winter. 2009-10 is also a good comparison of not huge Arctic outbreaks compared to the last 2 years but a cold, snowy winter nonetheless. Now, we have no clue what will actually happen but if the SST CA update takes place, winter weather lovers will love, love, love it. EDIT: Maps above for comparison ONLY. I'm not calling for a 2009-10 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 I don't see a trof over the east in that 500mb pattern. It looks stormy but not deep arctic cold. JMO. I don't see a Nino torch either. I haven't been calling for that this year. I see a flood of pacific air this winter which will lead to lots of cloudiness and cooler than normal temps but I think we will be missing the arctic cold for the most part this year. Again JMO. I think those charts illustrate this description pretty well. I don't think that equals a cold and snowy winter. I'm not saying I think we torch and will get no storms. A temp departure for DJF of -2 - -3 is a pretty decent departure. With ridging/blocking up north, depending on where it sets up, large highs can be created then migrate south. Yeah, temps up north look above normal, but above normal up there can still be below normal here, with the proper delivery mechanism in place. The images posted above do not show an ice box winter here with snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm, but they do show a look that should feature above normal snowfall for the southeast. Don't get me wrong, with such a strong nino, I'm still skeptical of a good winter, but to argue that the charts above show a bad winter here is a little far-fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours agoState College, PA Model(L) Our top 5 weighted analogs follow, forecast issued last week for winter. Pretty good agreement Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago State College, PA Model(L) Our top 5 weighted analogs follow, forecast issued last week for winter. Pretty good agreement pic.twitter.com/lkcWeG2nf5 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago State College, PA When I see objective model, subjective analogs agreeing it means we are likely on a good path, and gives us a chance to be right Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago State College, PA I dont think any event in the atmosphere in the future is a lock, no matter how "sure" I think I am. I think Joe puts his all into his work, and admits when he's wrong! Although he may hang on to a failing forecast too long sometimes!!! It's always good to see a model come toward your Idea whether you will be right or not....... JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 A temp departure for DJF of -2 - -3 is a pretty decent departure. With ridging/blocking up north, depending on where it sets up, large highs can be created then migrate south. Yeah, temps up north look above normal, but above normal up there can still be below normal here, with the proper delivery mechanism in place. The images posted above do not show an ice box winter here with snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm, but they do show a look that should feature above normal snowfall for the southeast. Don't get me wrong, with such a strong nino, I'm still skeptical of a good winter, but to argue that the charts above show a bad winter here is a little far-fetched. Yes, yes and yes. Although I would change "little far-fetched" to what it truly is..."dumb". If we get that 500mb pattern it will be cold and snowy, atleast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Yes, yes and yes. Although I would change "little far-fetched" to what it truly is..."dumb". If we get that 500mb pattern it will be cold and snowy, atleast here.you would have to change it to an "epic" pattern to get snow in central nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 you would have to change it to an "epic" pattern to get snow in central nc. No doubt! You guys are going to clean up this winter, this is setting up perfectly for your area....#KOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 No doubt! You guys are going to clean up this winter, this is setting up perfectly for your area....#KOD. We're going to have to start seeing terms like Biblical and Historic much more frequently if we are going to get any snow this winter! And you are not allowed to have an Avatar this winter. Last year, it jinxed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 No doubt! You guys are going to clean up this winter, this is setting up perfectly for your area....#KOD.Yeah I agree Pack. The mountains look real good as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Yeah I agree Pack. The mountains look real good as far as I can tell. Sure hope to get a chase up that way this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 We're going to have to start seeing terms like Biblical and Historic much more frequently if we are going to get any snow this winter! And you are not allowed to have an Avatar this winter. Last year, it jinxed us. No avatars! Yeah I agree Pack. The mountains look real good as far as I can tell. Yep, just looking at previous strong+ nino's it's better than average for a solid/snowy winter for the w-NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Sure hope to get a chase up that way this year!You may have several opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 No avatars! Yep, just looking at previous strong+ nino's it's better than average for a solid/snowy winter for the w-NC/VA. Yeah you are right. We tend to do very well especially with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Sure hope to get a chase up that way this year! Lets go! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Lets go! lol I say that Brick should get a bus and drive it all the way down I-85 and pick up all of the weenies who live on the south side of the interstate and we do the SE chase right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Lets go! lol Got new tires on the F250. Can't wait to check out Burgers new chase truck with "Full military power" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 I say that Brick should get a bus and drive it all the way down I-85 and pick up all of the weenies who live on the south side of the interstate and we do the SE chase right! I'm in. Me and Burger can take turns pulling Brick out of snow banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Funny how people look at the same data, models, and charts and see completely different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Funny how people look at the same data, models, and charts and see completely different things. Some people like to "stir the pot", so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 It would be really funny it everybody had to chase to the east this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Some people like to "stir the pot", so to speak. I think some are just blind or don't know what they're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 It would be really funny it everybody had to chase to the east this year. Well, there have been more big storms to the east of the Triangle the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Would the pattern and setup that's currently being depicted be more or less favorable for ice storms and sleet fests? I'm rooting for some pure powder this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Robert had a post on Facebook yesterday that said Greer sc to Winston-Salem NC, to DC, should invest in a snow shove and ice scraperl for this winter! His reasoning was that hot, droughty summers followed by ninos, bring alot of snow and ice to these regions! Giddyyuuppp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Funny how people look at the same data, models, and charts and see completely different things. Even funnier how some, depending on their mood, can look and see all things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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