Winter 15-16 Discussion

[stadiumwave]

I haven't mentioned CC once. You have said it several times. I also didn't name call you. Please consider chilling a bit yourself. We agree to disagree. The post you originally wrote isn't based in actual science. I won't bother responding again to this topic of yours as you keep mentioning CC which has no place in this forum.

This is a ridiculous disagreement. All I said was that the sun doesn't have any impact on blocking and you went berserk. I think you will have a very hard time finding real science behind your claim.

I'm not bringing up CC. Here's what you posted that created the response of me posting about the "temporary effects" of solar storms on the stratosphere during late fall & winter cooling the stratosphere & thus strengthening the winter stratospheric polar vortex, making high latitude blocking & PV displacement less likely:

IMO solar is a complete farce, has little to no impact. More and more papers are being released that take the air out of the solar arguments.

Your response sounds like you're referring to the paper in the CC forum dismissing long-term solar effects on CC. That's an entirely different subject all together. That paper in the CC forum HAS NOTHING to do with what I'm talking about which has actually strong peer-reviewed backing.

The peer-reviewed paper behind the pay wall explains it well; however, the free NASA publication explains it in a nutshell also.

And then you posted this:

Ok, thanks for validating my position. notning in your previous post is backed by actual science.

Well....you don't have to call someone a specific name to insult them. You're basically calling me an idiot that knows nothing on a public forum about something that is common knowledge. Don't expect me not to defend myself, when I know what I'm talking about.

Again, read the NASA publication & other literature on the subject. Remember that the discussion is indirect in that it's about solar flares affects on ozone, which leads to cooling of stratosphere & a stronger polar vortex. If you're going to get this you need a good, basic understanding of the difference between the stratospheric PV & the tropospheric PV. And the relationship between the stratospheric PV & tropospheric PV

Let's start with STRATOSPHERIC PV'S relationship to TROPOSPHERIC PV & to sensible weather:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stratosphere-tutorial

Then let's look at solar storms that release flares that make it to earth, effects on ozone:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ProtonOzone/

The best peer-reviewed treatment of the entire subject of high latitude blocking & solar activity is here:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n9/full/ngeo2225.html?WT.ec_id=NGEO-201409

Hey...I'm done with it. Nothing personally on my end...I think you're a great poster. I just think you totally misunderstood what I was posting about that led to all of it. Sorry for any confusion

[Cold Rain]

^ Good info, but unfortunately, you're not going to make any progress.

[Bob Chill]

IMHO- the million dollar question this winter is where the persistent low height anomaly persists in the GOA region. It's the classic driver of the northern stream in Ninos. Too far east (or north)and we're in trouble with temps. Far enough west and the entire se-ma have much better chances winter storms that don't include all rain. But there is no way anyone can answer that question at long leads. While swimming around in a pac air bath for the winter is certainly possible, being definitive right now is nothing more than a WAG. 

[griteater]

IMHO- the million dollar question this winter is where the persistent low height anomaly persists in the GOA region. It's the classic driver of the northern stream in Ninos. Too far east (or north)and we're in trouble with temps. Far enough west and the entire se-ma have much better chances winter storms that don't include all rain. But there is no way anyone can answer that question at long leads. While swimming around in a pac air bath for the winter is certainly possible, being definitive right now is nothing more than a WAG. 

Problem is, it's probably nothing more than a WAG on Nov 30th as well, lol....but we do the best we can....but I agree Bob, the presence of a winter averaged north Pac low is very likely, but then, how big and how far east does it want to setup.  There seems to be 2 camps of opinion: Camp 1) Strong/Super El Nino climo of big Gulf of Alaska low, very little AK / Western N America ridging - normal to warm in the southeast, Camp 2) The persistent Western N America ridging that we've seen the past few winters wins out, N Pac low is more to the west (Aleutian Low), cool in the southeast.  The high end strong nino analogs favor Camp 1, while most of the seasonal modeling is favoring Camp 2 (minus the CFS),  And good luck forecasting the AO/NAO...I'm going with neutral for now. 

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, it's pretty funny that folks can find a way to work themselves up into believing that things are setting up for a great winter in the face of what should be a winter flooded with pacific air. Just proves the position that people will believe in a banner winter regardless of what all the signals indicate. Could we get a good winter? Sure. Is it the most likely outcome? Nope.

 

Also pretty funny that people get worked up over others getting worked up over having a good winter. It's not that big of a deal. It could be a great winter or a crappy one. People saying it will be a great one have just as much chance of those saying it won't be. Most likely we will have average to below average snowfall because that is what happens here most of the time. But no one actually knows what is going to happen with winter in the southeast until it happens. 

[Bob Chill]

Problem is, it's probably nothing more than a WAG on Nov 30th as well, lol....but we do the best we can....but I agree Bob, the presence of a winter averaged north Pac low is very likely, but then, how big and how far east does it want to setup.  There seems to be 2 camps of opinion: Camp 1) Strong/Super El Nino climo of big Gulf of Alaska low, very little AK / Western N America ridging - normal to warm in the southeast, Camp 2) The persistent Western N America ridging that we've seen the past few winters wins out, N Pac low is more to the west (Aleutian Low), cool in the southeast.  The high end strong nino analogs favor Camp 1, while most of the seasonal modeling is favoring Camp 2 (minus the CFS),  And good luck forecasting the AO/NAO...I'm going with neutral for now. 

 

Truth. 

 

In my area, mod to strong nino's are mixed 50/50 between crappy and good. But considering there are so few in modern record it's pretty tough to draw any conclusions using them as guidance. Certainly not for fine details. I'm personally pretty skeptical of a 97-98 redux. And will be until the persistent patterns show their hand in Dec-Jan. 

 

82-83 was kind here. We got snow in Dec with an otherwise hostile pattern and Feb was great (but had good blocking). Nino's can produce without having persistent blocking. I think Jan 88 is a good example for the piedmont of NC. 

 

I'm optimistic this winter because we actually have favorable enso going for real this time after a couple false alarms. It can suck of course but I'll take my chances with this vs a mod-strong Nina any day. I'm not sure how the SE does in a typical mod-strong nina year but the MA is placed perfectly in no mans land. 

[griteater]

Edit: Even in the warm winter of 97-98, which had a very strong el nino, RDU received 6" of snow

Falls - here's what I've got for that winter...I'm missing some Raleigh action maybe

 

Dec 29-31, 1997

Asheville: 4.5

Charlotte: 2.9

Greensboro: 5.2

Raleigh: 0.4

 

Jan 19, 1998

Asheville: 0.0

Charlotte: 1.5

Greensboro: 0.3

Raleigh: 2.0

 

Jan 27-28, 1998

Asheville: 12.2

Charlotte: 0.0

Greensboro: 0.0

Raleigh: 0.0

 

Also, Mar 10-11, 0.5 in Charlotte and 4.0 in Banner Elk

[FallsLake]

Falls - here's what I've got for that winter...I'm missing some Raleigh action maybe

 

Dec 29-31, 1997

Asheville: 4.5

Charlotte: 2.9

Greensboro: 5.2

Raleigh: 0.4

 

Jan 19, 1998

Asheville: 0.0

Charlotte: 1.5

Greensboro: 0.3

Raleigh: 2.0

 

Jan 27-28, 1998

Asheville: 12.2

Charlotte: 0.0

Greensboro: 0.0

Raleigh: 0.0

 

Also, Mar 10-11, 0.5 in Charlotte and 4.0 in Banner Elk

I was using the Wunderground site for RDU. The below link allows you to set a specific date and then it gives values for the day and also for a season (like snowfall since July of previous year).  

 

Set for end of March:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KRDU/1998/3/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

[griteater]

Truth. 

 

In my area, mod to strong nino's are mixed 50/50 between crappy and good. But considering there are so few in modern record it's pretty tough to draw any conclusions using them as guidance. Certainly not for fine details. I'm personally pretty skeptical of a 97-98 redux. And will be until the persistent patterns show their hand in Dec-Jan. 

 

82-83 was kind here. We got snow in Dec with an otherwise hostile pattern and Feb was great (but had good blocking). Nino's can produce without having persistent blocking. I think Jan 88 is a good example for the piedmont of NC. 

 

I'm optimistic this winter because we actually have favorable enso going for real this time after a couple false alarms. It can suck of course but I'll take my chances with this vs a mod-strong Nina any day. I'm not sure how the SE does in a typical mod-strong nina year but the MA is placed perfectly in no mans land. 

Truth.......biggest thing is you get good gulf or deep south lows in mod/strong ninos, which are otherwise tough to come by

 

Historically, the moderate ninas are the worst here....and especially 2nd year ninas

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46672-winter-15-16-discussion/?p=3645864

[Brick Tamland]

Sounds like this winter could be a blockbuster or hardly nothing at all. I think WxSouth said that a few weeks ago, that it is going to be a fine line between the two. 

[griteater]

I was using the Wunderground site for RDU. The below link allows you to set a specific date and then it gives values for the day and also for a season (like snowfall since July of previous year).  

 

Set for end of March:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KRDU/1998/3/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

Yeah, I saw that...I would be curious of the Raleigh storm dates

[StormchaserChuck!]

The El Nino is strong and that definitely has to be considered but we should also look at how the N Hemispheric pattern is setting up and the SSTA composite right now (research shows that Jun-Sept SSTA's in the North Atlantic and Pacific correlate very strongly to the following Winter's NAO and PNA patterns).

 

The current setup is classic +PNA/-EPO/-NAO. If the El NIno weakens in the coming months, we could be talking about a historic Winter in the southeast states.

 

Active STJ and consistent troughs... that's what the current pattern shows.

[griteater]

The El Nino is strong and that definitely has to be considered but we should also look at how the N Hemispheric pattern is setting up and the SSTA composite right now (research shows that Jun-Sept SSTA's in the North Atlantic and Pacific correlate very strongly to the following Winter's NAO and PNA patterns).

 

The current setup is classic +PNA/-EPO/-NAO. If the El NIno weakens in the coming months, we could be talking about a historic Winter in the southeast states.

 

Active STJ and consistent troughs... that's what the current pattern shows.

Thanks for posting in here Stormchaser....your reputation precedes you

[Isopycnic]

Sounds like this winter could be a blockbuster or hardly nothing at all. I think WxSouth said that a few weeks ago, that it is going to be a fine line between the two. 

So, it'll be an average winter.

[griteater]

82-83 was kind here. We got snow in Dec with an otherwise hostile pattern and Feb was great (but had good blocking). Nino's can produce without having persistent blocking. I think Jan 88 is a good example for the piedmont of NC. 

Yes, it is....Feb '73 as well

[max100]

Yes, it is....Feb '73 as well

January 8 1973 ATL was destroyed by a massive ice storm, a month later the central part of GA, SC into NC had 2 feet of snow.

[Met1985]

Grit and Bob great info guys.

[Bob Chill]

I posted this in the MA sub yesterday. Makes a case for "increased chances" of the AO cooperating at least for a portion of this winter. But a couple recent years don't do us any favors. I estimated Aug 2015's monthly because CPC won't post their monthly for another couple days. IF there is any connection between the persistent July/August state and the winter, this year makes a good test of that. But even if it verifies it could be just a coincidence given the short list and short period of look back.

 

 

 

[superjames1992]

A warm winter is possible, but not probable (less than 50%). A chance of a warm winter is elevated some because of the strong el nino. There are other factors that can offset this warm outcome; we have favorable ocean temps (in the right places) that should promote blocking. We have no idea at this point which will dominate over the other. So I would say it's foolish to say we're most likely to have a warm winter just as it's foolish to say we're going to have a historic winter. The most likely outcome is wetter than normal with temps near to slightly below normal. Even with this outcome many would still see near to slightly above snow totals.   

 

Edit: Even in the warm winter of 97-98, which had a very strong el nino, RDU received 6" of snow

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KRDU/1998/2/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

Man, 6.6" of snow for GSO, too. I was always under the assumption that was a practically snowless winter.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

January 8 1973 ATL was destroyed by a massive ice storm, a month later the central part of GA, SC into NC had 2 feet of snow.

so that would mean that 3 of the strongest el ninos on record produced great winters for ATL. 82-83 and 91-92 were both strong El ninos and produced incredible snowfall for ATL.

[Brick Tamland]

Sounds like the odds are in our favor for average to above average snow totals this winter. It is nice to have the odds in favor of that, but of course it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Potential doesn't always equal results.

[frazdaddy]

The El Nino is strong and that definitely has to be considered but we should also look at how the N Hemispheric pattern is setting up and the SSTA composite right now (research shows that Jun-Sept SSTA's in the North Atlantic and Pacific correlate very strongly to the following Winter's NAO and PNA patterns).

 

The current setup is classic +PNA/-EPO/-NAO. If the El NIno weakens in the coming months, we could be talking about a historic Winter in the southeast states.

 

Active STJ and consistent troughs... that's what the current pattern shows.

Welcome to the forum. I look forward to your thoughts.

[LithiaWx]

Sounds like this winter could be a blockbuster or hardly nothing at all. I think WxSouth said that a few weeks ago, that it is going to be a fine line between the two.

[LithiaWx]

Sounds like the odds are in our favor for average to above average snow totals this winter. It is nice to have the odds in favor of that, but of course it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Potential doesn't always equal results.

[FallsLake]

Here's a database of winter storms for the NC folks:

 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Here's a database of winter storms for the NC folks:

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1

wow 35 pages. If it was GA it would be like 5 pages lol.

[stadiumwave]

SST analog forecast UPDATED TODAY.Looks like a basin wide Nino...pretty impressive:

SST's


500mb


2M Temps

 

[griteater]

stadium - CA looks very similar to last month's...slight improvement over Greenland.

[stadiumwave]

stadium - CA looks very similar to last month's...slight improvement over Greenland.

 

For some reason I cannot access last month's.  Do you have an archive link? Thanks

[griteater]

For some reason I cannot access last month's.  Do you have an archive link? Thanks

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/monthly.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201507/carealtime.html