stadiumwave Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 http://weatherranger.com/seasonal-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I don't know of any scientific peer reviewed data that links solar to anything you just wrote. http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-540-34578-7_8And BTW...this is NOT about solar impacts & climate change, it's about solar storms temporary impacts on the stratosphere. So you can relax & get off your high horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 http://weatherranger.com/seasonal-outlook/ Thanks for the link stadium. I heard a few things that were off in the video, but otherwise no comment/opinion on the forecast. He said that the NAO has been in a blocking pattern the last 2 winters, but the NAO was positive the last 2 winters...and said that there is 'a lot of sea ice right now' (summer sea ice melt is top 5 highest on record). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Ol Bastardi's thoughts (don't see that it's been posted yet) Here's a public link via his free Saturday Summaries... http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-29-2015 Who would have thought it would be a little hyped...for the SE though and not the NE! Shocking from JB the worst of it isn't in the delmarva...joking, but really. Thoughts? I'm too busy to dissect stuff these days until maybe December, but I'm enjoying reading yall's thoughts in this thread, nice job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 Canadian SIPS Sep 1 release is a slight improvement over its Aug 1 release which was already pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Canadian SIPS Sep 1 release is a slight improvement over its Aug 1 release which was already pretty good [l.png] Good grief, looks like 09/10 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Ol Bastardi's thoughts (don't see that it's been posted yet) Here's a public link via his free Saturday Summaries... http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-29-2015 Who would have thought it would be a little hyped...for the SE though and not the NE! Shocking from JB the worst of it isn't in the delmarva...joking, but really. Thoughts? I'm too busy to dissect stuff these days until maybe December, but I'm enjoying reading yall's thoughts in this thread, nice job! Definitely look like a good year for the south with the better odds focused on western regions. It's been some time since I listened to one of his videos. I forgot how much he can ramble on.... Edit: He posted this on Twitter; which if correct gives him a very good summer forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Canadian SIPS Sep 1 release is a slight improvement over its Aug 1 release which was already pretty good Wow! Oh how I wish.EDIT: Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Thanks for the link stadium. I heard a few things that were off in the video, but otherwise no comment/opinion on the forecast. He said that the NAO has been in a blocking pattern the last 2 winters, but the NAO was positive the last 2 winters...and said that there is 'a lot of sea ice right now' (summer sea ice melt is top 5 highest on record). Yea...I didn't post because I agreed with him. Just sharing anything that comes out. I didn't get the sea ice....NAO comments either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 Wow! Oh how I wish. EDIT: Do you have a link? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015090100&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015090100&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=0 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Ol Bastardi's thoughts (don't see that it's been posted yet) Here's a public link via his free Saturday Summaries... http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-29-2015 Who would have thought it would be a little hyped...for the SE though and not the NE! Shocking from JB the worst of it isn't in the delmarva...joking, but really. Thoughts? I'm too busy to dissect stuff these days until maybe December, but I'm enjoying reading yall's thoughts in this thread, nice job! Look like East TN is the place to be this winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Look like East TN is the place to be this winter ! They'll probably do one more update before winter. I don't remember when, but I believe they did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 They'll probably do one more update before winter. I don't remember when, but I believe they did last year. I don't take any predictions seriously this early. I mean, i'm sure a lot can change in the next 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 They'll probably do one more update before winter. I don't remember when, but I believe they did last year.They should have done an update last February ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Ol Bastardi's thoughts (don't see that it's been posted yet) Here's a public link via his free Saturday Summaries... http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-29-2015 Who would have thought it would be a little hyped...for the SE though and not the NE! Shocking from JB the worst of it isn't in the delmarva...joking, but really. Thoughts? I'm too busy to dissect stuff these days until maybe December, but I'm enjoying reading yall's thoughts in this thread, nice job! Bless his heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2015 Author Share Posted September 2, 2015 Good grief, looks like 09/10 pattern. Meanwhile, the CFS is a 97-98 Nino, +NAO torch job http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015090100&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2015 Author Share Posted September 2, 2015 From Australian Bureau of Meteorology....funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-540-34578-7_8 And BTW...this is NOT about solar impacts & climate change, it's about solar storms temporary impacts on the stratosphere. So you can relax & get off your high horse. http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-540-34578-7_8 And BTW...this is NOT about solar impacts & climate change, it's about solar storms temporary impacts on the stratosphere. So you can relax & get off your high horse. Ok, thanks for validating my position. notning in your previous post is backed by actual science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Asian snowcover is growing ! Get ready, dis gonna be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Asian snowcover is growing ! Get ready, dis gonna be good! Yeah, it's pretty funny that folks can find a way to work themselves up into believing that things are setting up for a great winter in the face of what should be a winter flooded with pacific air. Just proves the position that people will believe in a banner winter regardless of what all the signals indicate. Could we get a good winter? Sure. Is it the most likely outcome? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Yeah, it's pretty funny that folks can find a way to work themselves up into believing that things are setting up for a great winter in the face of what should be a winter flooded with pacific air. Just proves the position that people will believe in a banner winter regardless of what all the signals indicate. Could we get a good winter? Sure. Is it the most likely outcome? Nope. It doesn't take much to give Atlanta a good winter. ANYTHING is better than last winter. The winter of 97-98 which featured a strong El Nino gave me 2" of snow in late December of 97. Meanwhile a winter like last winter with plenty of cold air only produced a few flurries for me. So, to me, it doesn't even matter whether we have a mild winter or a cold winter. All i'm concerned about is snowfall. Also, I believe the winters of 82-83 and 91-92 were El Nino winters and they were GREAT winters for Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 It doesn't take much to give Atlanta a good winter. ANYTHING is better than last winter. The winter of 97-98 which featured a strong El Nino gave me 2" of snow in late December of 97. Meanwhile a winter like last winter with plenty of cold air only produced a few flurries for me. So, to me, it doesn't even matter whether we have a mild winter or a cold winter. All i'm concerned about is snowfall. Atlanta isn't a good example for that reason right there. One small storm can make a torch fest lame winter into a decent one. I see a lot of cloudy, dreary days in the 50s for us. More so than we are accustomed to seeing. Snowfall wise, we could sneak an event in. JMO, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Atlanta isn't a good example for that reason right there. One small storm can make a torch fest lame winter into a decent one. I see a lot of cloudy, dreary days in the 50s for us. More so than we are accustomed to seeing. Snowfall wise, we could sneak an event in. JMO, It seems there might be a correlation between strong El Niino and lots of snow in Atlanta if you consider that 82-83 and 91-92 were both strong El Nino's with a ton of snow in ATL.. I know that's a small sample but still.... And 97-98 wasnt bad compared to many years ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 It doesn't take much to give Atlanta a good winter. ANYTHING is better than last winter. The winter of 97-98 which featured a strong El Nino gave me 2" of snow in late December of 97. Meanwhile a winter like last winter with plenty of cold air only produced a few flurries for me. So, to me, it doesn't even matter whether we have a mild winter or a cold winter. All i'm concerned about is snowfall.The one thing that is almost a given this winter, is that it will be wet! I'd venture a guess that we feature above normal precip all three months of meteorological winter! I'm excited about that after suffering through one of the hottest, driest summers on record!I'm as excited about above precip as I am about snow! The groundwater needs it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 It seems there might be a correlation between strong El Niino and lots of snow in Atlanta if you consider that 82-83 and 91-92 were both strong El Nino's with a ton of snow in ATL.. I know that's a small sample but still.... And 97-98 wasnt bad compared to many years ! Ok Larry lite, Snow in Atlanta doesn't mean jack for anyone else, really doesn't even mean much for other cities in GA! Let alone other SE cities or other east coast cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The one thing that is almost a given this winter, is that it will be wet! I'd venture a guess that we feature above normal precip all three months of meteorological winter! I'm excited about that after suffering through one of the hottest, driest summers on record!I'm as excited about above precip as I am about snow! The groundwater needs it! Above normal precip will dominate, I think it also comes with a flood of pacific air for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Ok, thanks for validating my position. notning in your previous post is backed by actual science.Woe! What? What I said is backed by science. As a matter of fact it's very common science. I know you're so absorbed with climate change that you thought my post had some sort of implication on solar effects on climate change. Cool your emotions, catch up on science & you'd understand my post had zero to do with solar & climate change you tool. Solar storms that produce flares that make it to earth's atmosphere temporarily cool the stratosphere. "Everything" I posted earlier is scientifically correct. Here's a non-peer reviewed piece you can read that explains some. Otherwise pay the money & read the peer-reviewed literature I provided or cool it. Or better yet run back to the climate change forum. http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ProtonOzone/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Woe! What? What I said is backed by science. As a matter of fact it's very common science. I know you're so absorbed with climate change that you thought my post had some sort of implication on solar effects on climate change. Cool your emotions, catch up on science & you'd understand my post had zero to do with solar & climate change you tool. Solar storms that produce flares that make it to earth's atmosphere temporarily cool the stratosphere. "Everything" I posted earlier is scientifically correct. Here's a non-peer reviewed piece you can read that explains some. Otherwise pay the money & read the peer-reviewed literature I provided or cool it. Or better yet run back to the climate change forum. http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ProtonOzone/ I haven't mentioned CC once. You have said it several times. I also didn't name call you. Please consider chilling a bit yourself. We agree to disagree. The post you originally wrote isn't based in actual science. I won't bother responding again to this topic of yours as you keep mentioning CC which has no place in this forum.This is a ridiculous disagreement. All I said was that the sun doesn't have any impact on blocking and you went berserk. I think you will have a very hard time finding real science behind your claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Above normal precip will dominate, I think it also comes with a flood of pacific air for the most part. A warm winter is possible, but not probable (less than 50%). A chance of a warm winter is elevated some because of the strong el nino. There are other factors that can offset this warm outcome; we have favorable ocean temps (in the right places) that should promote blocking. We have no idea at this point which will dominate over the other. So I would say it's foolish to say we're most likely to have a warm winter just as it's foolish to say we're going to have a historic winter. The most likely outcome is wetter than normal with temps near to slightly below normal. Even with this outcome many would still see near to slightly above snow totals. Edit: Even in the warm winter of 97-98, which had a very strong el nino, RDU received 6" of snow http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KRDU/1998/2/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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