Daniel Boone Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The long range models will depict a pattern distinctive to a strong el nino due to the fact of previous strong ninos weighted heavily into them. Other players are factored very little. The Ao and Nao can only be forecasted medium range at best to some degree. Therefore, it doesn't reflect on the lr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Great work stadiumwave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 2nd the great work comment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Persimmon seeds! Have about the same accuracy! The flaw in analogs is they are suppose to be a guide, they are horribly incorrect most times because there are so many variables and no two events are ever exactly the same. That's why the models can hardly get a 3-5 day forecast right, much less looking at the past to predict the future. I prefer Wooly Worms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 FEB Fab Feb three years in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Fab Feb three years in a row? Only if we can skip the robber baron's warm nose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I prefer Wooly Worms. Recently, down here, amazingly long spider web runs have been indicative of something beyond traveling spiders The two winters I had the 100 foot spans it got super cold.....so if I see a wooly worm, backpacking persimmon seeds across a 50 foot span of spider silk, I'm getting the sled ready, and the long johns out. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Fab Feb three years in a row? Waiting on Feb to save a crappy winter, makes for a crappy winter! But so does snow in Oct/Nov, so I don't know how to get a good winter anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Waiting on Feb to save a crappy winter, makes for a crappy winter! But so does snow in Oct/Nov, so I don't know how to get a good winter anymore! Move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Move To Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 MoveI don't think Michigan or any other place up north, has good enough wings for me to move! I guess I love Wild Wing cafe more than snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I don't think Michigan or any other place up north, has good enough wings for me to move! I guess I love Wild Wing cafe more than snow! Ummm...Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 To Alaska. tried, my wife won't go for it. Even with the offer of very high pay and no state income or sales tax, she said it's too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 tried, my wife won't go for it. Even with the offer of very high pay and no state income or sales tax, she said it's too cold. Get her a snuggie or better yet, a double slanket. That ought to do the trick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Weatherbell just released it's updated winter outlook this evening. For the record, I posted mine first yesterday. I say that because it looks pretty close to mine but with a few additional analog years. Here was the temperature anomaly from the analog blend I used: WEATHERBELL NEW TEMP FORECASTNEW SNOWFALL FORECAST Our method of an independent consensus ranked 1957-58 first, 2014-15second, 1997-98 third, 2002-03 fourth and 1972-73 fifth. Also factored in were 1919-20, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1994-95 and 2009-10. The analog blend calls for a very warm DEC, colder in SE JAN, Frigid FEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Good job, Stadiumwave. Enjoyed reading your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I'll take 150% of normal, all day , everyday! That's like 8-10" inches I think!? 150% of last year would equal a trace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I'll take 150% here in Myrtle beach! I had a few flurries last year, maybe this year we can coat the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Three degrees below normal and 200% of normal snowfall??!! Sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Three degrees below normal and 200% of normal snowfall??!! Sign me up!It looks like your in the 150% to me, but my eyes are getting old!I think Wilksdud gets 200%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Three degrees below normal and 200% of normal snowfall??!! Sign me up! Same here. Sign us up! We're (of course) right on the border of their 150% and 200% graphic, but I'm just going to say 200% because I would like to believe that we won't have another bust year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Gladly take that. But I hope we don't have to wait until February like last winter to get it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 It looks like your in the 150% to me, but my eyes are getting old! I think Wilksdud gets 200%! Hey! Don't take my moment away from me. Buzzkiller... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Erika was just a prelude to how the Winter of 15-16 is going to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Those outlooks do look awesome, but I'm not buying it yet, especially after last winter's experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Well...the last 2 winters in Kentucky have been absolutely epic. The best back to back winters since the late 70's in my location. I'd settle for average here in Ky & let it be epic for the SE winter lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Erika was just a prelude to how the Winter of 15-16 is going to go In other words storm tracks changing drastically every few hours and then ending up not doing anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 In other words storm tracks changing drastically every few hours and then ending up not doing anything at all.This pretty much sums up the forecasting challenges for nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 This pretty much sums up the forecasting challenges for Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 bricks forecasting challenges are limited to how do you reformat the text correctly after a cut and paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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