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Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

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I also like the "dry" part of the forecast from CA to AL!! They must really do good research on their

" secret" formula for predicting weather! Brick could tell you that a niño will bring wet across the whole southern third of the country!

Sad thing is that there's a lot of people that blindly believe in these crap forecast.  

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^ Falls, that's the Farmers Almanac, not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac. Here's the map for the Old Farmer's Almanac, which unfortunately will have us frequently hearing the term "Mid-South winter". :( :(

winter2015580.jpg

this map is so funny, especially if you live in and around atlanta. For my area, " normal temps and dry". Northern suburbs, " cold and snowy". South and east suburbs " cold and wet". Just incredible. Normal temps and dry here and a cold and snowy winter 10 miles to my north. Did a 4 year old draw this map ??
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this map is so funny, especially if you live in and around atlanta. For my area, " normal temps and dry". Northern suburbs, " cold and snowy". South and east suburbs " cold and wet". Just incredible. Normal temps and dry here and a cold and snowy winter 10 miles to my north. Did a 4 year old draw this map ??

Lol, yeah their maps are terrible, perennially.

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I'm on board for a good winter for a good chunk of the SE! Above normal snow/Ice, not sure about the cold? Think it may be a lot of marginal cold. probably not much very cold air..... I can see a lot of 35-40 degree rains  :cry:  But just one or two cold enough and we're above normal in the snow/ice.... Says my gut!!!  That's my winter forecast, took me 5 minutes to come up with it... lol  Good Luck everyone! Hope you all get some snow.  :snowing: Thanks for taking the time to read this well thought out forecast....

EDIT: May update sometime before February! 

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^ Falls, that's the Farmers Almanac, not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac.  Here's the map for the Old Farmer's Almanac, which unfortunately will have us frequently hearing the term "Mid-South winter". :( :(

 

attachicon.gifwinter2015580.jpg

Not to worry, they had cold and snowy centered in the Southeast last year, as did most sources, and they missed that.

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this map is so funny, especially if you live in and around atlanta. For my area, " normal temps and dry". Northern suburbs, " cold and snowy". South and east suburbs " cold and wet". Just incredible. Normal temps and dry here and a cold and snowy winter 10 miles to my north. Did a 4 year old draw this map ??

Yeah but you have to realize, there is going to be a dividing line somewhere and the Atlanta Metro area is as large as the whole Upstate of South Carolina, so that's not as strange as it may seem.

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Ok....here we go. I'll stick my neck out.  Here's my favorite analog years for this winter.  3 of them are the favorites of a very objective, knowledgeable person I know.  So...that gives me a little confidence:

The years are: 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-87, 2009-10

Some of these years I chose for ENSO forcing reasons only.  Some location, one based on the strength of the EL NINO alone (82-83).  Other years were chosen based on Pacific & Atlantic state.  Others due to high latitude blocking. Of course...one will look in vain for perfectly matching analogs for the current global state right now.

1982-83 is a risk for this analog compilation for the simple fact the NAO was very positive.  I do not expect that, but I do like it for ENSO purposes. If NAO was a little closer to neutral it would've be a much more helpful analog.  If you take that year away the analog looks similar to JAMSTEC August update.

1997-98 was not chosen as an analog for the due fact it was a fireball, east-based El Nino.  Regions 1 & 2 were unbelievably warm.  The evolution of this Nino does not resemble the evolution of that Nino at all at this point.

Anyway, here we go.

ENSO REGIONS:

bu1bZM0h.png


DJF TEMP ANOMALY:

KPIMQzCEom.png


PRECIP

TP9aNMGZN5.png


500mb

zuRIzWhMr9.png


Still just having fun right now.  The direction of things can change quick & therefore analog years can change also by NOV.

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What should we use in lieu of analogs Gainesville?

Persimmon seeds! Have about the same accuracy! The flaw in analogs is they are suppose to be a guide, they are horribly incorrect most times because there are so many variables and no two events are ever exactly the same. That's why the models can hardly get a 3-5 day forecast right, much less looking at the past to predict the future.
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Persimmon seeds! Have about the same accuracy! The flaw in analogs is they are suppose to be a guide, they are horribly incorrect most times because there are so many variables and no two events are ever exactly the same. That's why the models can hardly get a 3-5 day forecast right, much less looking at the past to predict the future.

Couldn't even get storm forecasts right the day they were supposed to happen this year.

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Persimmon seeds! Have about the same accuracy! The flaw in analogs is they are suppose to be a guide, they are horribly incorrect most times because there are so many variables and no two events are ever exactly the same. That's why the models can hardly get a 3-5 day forecast right, much less looking at the past to predict the future.

That's how they are used....as a guide

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Ok....here we go. I'll stick my neck out.  Here's my favorite analog years for this winter.  3 of them are the favorites of a very objective, knowledgeable person I know.  So...that gives me a little confidence:

The years are: 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-87, 2009-10

Some of these years I chose for ENSO forcing reasons only.  Some location, one based on the strength of the EL NINO alone (82-83).  Other years were chosen based on Pacific & Atlantic state.  Others due to high latitude blocking. Of course...one will look in vain for perfectly matching analogs for the current global state right now.

1982-83 is a risk for this analog compilation for the simple fact the NAO was very positive.  I do not expect that, but I do like it for ENSO purposes. If NAO was a little closer to neutral it would've be a much more helpful analog.  If you take that year away the analog looks similar to JAMSTEC August update.

1997-98 was not chosen as an analog for the due fact it was a fireball, east-based El Nino.  Regions 1 & 2 were unbelievably warm.  The evolution of this Nino does not resemble the evolution of that Nino at all at this point.

Anyway, here we go.

ENSO REGIONS:

bu1bZM0h.png

DJF TEMP ANOMALY:

KPIMQzCEom.png

PRECIP

TP9aNMGZN5.png

500mb

zuRIzWhMr9.png

Still just having fun right now.  The direction of things can change quick & therefore analog years can change also by NOV.

 

 

Here's the month by month breakdown using the same analogs:

 

DEC

 

zCzLHSH.png

 

 

JAN

 

tMCsR8t.png

 

 

FEB

 

sZMdhFC.png

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