Winter 15-16 Discussion

[griteater]

I thought with a strong El Nino the upper Midwest would be warmer than normal but that map shows the exact opposite ????

 

That looks like last years. I don't think they have posted this years yet.

 

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Well they were right about last winter. It was chilly and wet

[CherokeeGA]

Well they were right about last winter. It was chilly and wet

 

It kills me, because I think most of their stuff is so vague as to be worthless, but yes... it was chilly and wet.

[calculus1]

Brad P. on the potential impacts of a strong El Nino on the Charlotte region:

 

http://wxbrad.com/what-el-nino-means-for-charlotte-this-winter/?utm_content=bufferc4695&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[BullCityWx]

Brad P. on the potential impacts of a strong El Nino on the Charlotte region:

 

http://wxbrad.com/what-el-nino-means-for-charlotte-this-winter/?utm_content=bufferc4695&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Well, we for damn sure wont have to worry about those piss ant la nina storms that seem to die at the SC/GA border. 

[griteater]

Well, we for damn sure wont have to worry about those piss ant la nina storms that seem to die at the SC/GA border. 

preach it

[packbacker]

Brad P. on the potential impacts of a strong El Nino on the Charlotte region:

 

http://wxbrad.com/what-el-nino-means-for-charlotte-this-winter/?utm_content=bufferc4695&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Interesting....for RDU we have the following averages...

 

All Nino's - 7.3"

Weak - 4.9"

Moderate/Strong+ - 8.7"

[tonysc]

That map looks lame! I know everybody thinks the world revolves around NC, but this map just makes that point !

I know how you feel there mack. I just love it when the cutoff line is the state line of SC and NC. But I would say that map might still generally fare well for the northwestern part of SC. I mean the lines usually follow a swooping effect through this area, just hopefully it will swoop at least a little to the south of the NC SC line.

[deltadog03]

Hey everyone!  Loooooong time no post!!  How is everyone?

[FallsLake]

I know how you feel there mack. I just love it when the cutoff line is the state line of SC and NC. But I would say that map might still generally fare well for the northwestern part of SC. I mean the lines usually follow a swooping effect through this area, just hopefully it will swoop at least a little to the south of the NC SC line.

From past memory I've seen many Winter Storm Warnings posted for areas west of this line:

**BUT I've also seen the reverse, just not as often (as one would expect) 

[FallsLake]

^^^Here's the opposite. Remember this amazing map:

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4YxZ1m4M-60/UubkzOhRaEI/AAAAAAAANyY/P20bb-DJh-M/s1600/PAUS.png

 

[CherokeeGA]

Hey everyone!  Loooooong time no post!!  How is everyone?

 

It's that Hype Train time of year.  I think they are all jonesing for pie-in-the-sky Winter of the Century GODZILLA EL NINO three-foot-deep snowstorm prognostications, complete with fantastical analog years and links to old storm reports.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I know how you feel there mack. I just love it when the cutoff line is the state line of SC and NC. But I would say that map might still generally fare well for the northwestern part of SC. I mean the lines usually follow a swooping effect through this area, just hopefully it will swoop at least a little to the south of the NC SC line.

Unfortunately the Western upstate is about the worst place to be for snowfall. We're far enough north to have teases but the mtns take us out of it almost every time. Systems coming from West to NW get chewed up by the mtns and only come to about Rome and Helen GA or at bes the state line. Systems from NW to North get chewed up by NC mtns and we get dryslotted. Most of the ULLs tend to intensify a little too far SE of us, and many of the Southern sliders leave us on the NW edge looking in. Most of teh biggest storms to ever hit the state missed the western upstate entirely - Jan 2000, Feb 2004, Feb 73, Dec 89, and Jan 2014 to name a few. For us folks in the NW corner we have to have a perfectly placed track from the SW or WSW that doesn't push the cold air back North ( Jan 87, Jan 88, Jan 2011).

[griteater]

August update from CPC is out.  DJF forecast from July on left / from August on right.

 

[griteater]

Precip forecast

 

[FallsLake]

^^They did back off on their below normal temps As discussed before not sure what below normal temps in the SE will equate to (maybe just cool and wet). The good thing I see is the NE continues to be listed as equal chances; meaning we still have hope that we can get some CADs with sufficient cold air to the north (....or not, it is equal chances).    

[tonysc]

Unfortunately the Western upstate is about the worst place to be for snowfall. We're far enough north to have teases but the mtns take us out of it almost every time. Systems coming from West to NW get chewed up by the mtns and only come to about Rome and Helen GA or at bes the state line. Systems from NW to North get chewed up by NC mtns and we get dryslotted. Most of the ULLs tend to intensify a little too far SE of us, and many of the Southern sliders leave us on the NW edge looking in. Most of teh biggest storms to ever hit the state missed the western upstate entirely - Jan 2000, Feb 2004, Feb 73, Dec 89, and Jan 2014 to name a few. For us folks in the NW corner we have to have a perfectly placed track from the SW or WSW that doesn't push the cold air back North ( Jan 87, Jan 88, Jan 2011).

Yeah you are right about that. I'm from Greenwood and would have thought that the far western Upstate would always fair well in these situations but seems like further to the east toward Greenville and Spartanburg do better. And yes sometimes the traditionally more snow prone areas in the northwester part of SC miss out on some of the big ones. I remember very well Greenwood cashing in on the Jan 2000 storm and will never forget a storm like the Feb 1973 one, it was truly phenomenal.

[griteater]

Here is the latest from the IMME.  I believe the IMME is the EuroSIP or something close to it.  Here's how it is described - 

 

International MME: The EuroSIP (European Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction) project is presently a collaboration of ECMWF, MeteoFrance, UKMet Office, and NCEP.

 

[griteater]

IMME Precip

 

[Cold Rain]

^ That's about as close as you can get to the image of a classic strong Nino.

[NC_hailstorm]

Early on,looks like a west QBO with solar min this year.Solar is declining as expected we might get a month below 100 on solar flux soon.

 

West QBO and solar min isn't a terrible match just a weaker flatter ridge south of us.Canada and the upper midwest is pretty cold but not much NAO all the ridging is closer to the UK.I'm guessing a PV somewhere in Canada probably.

 

We'll see if the El Nino can overcome it.

[stadiumwave]

Here is the latest from the IMME. I believe the IMME is the EuroSIP or something close to it. Here's how it is described -

International MME: The EuroSIP (European Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction) project is presently a collaboration of ECMWF, MeteoFrance, UKMet Office, and NCEP.

That's not the EuroSIPS. That page updates on the 8th of every month...it was posted several pages back on last update.

Go to the main page & there are 4 other models that update at the same time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/model_monanom_body.shtml

[griteater]

That's not the EuroSIPS. That page updates on the 8th of every month...it was posted several pages back on last update.

Go to the main page & there are 4 other models that update at the same time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/model_monanom_body.shtml

 

There are 2 different model ensembles...  

 

Your link is the NMME - "The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC."

 

This link is the IMME - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/iMMEindex.shtml- " International MME: The EuroSIP (European Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction) project is presently a collaboration of ECMWF, MeteoFrance, UKMet Office, and NCEP. Raw data from IMME is not available. IMME is not currently included in NMME, but is provided on the NMME webpage for informative purposes."

 

User's Guide where I pulled that info: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/users_guide.html

 

The IMME for August just updated within the last few days.

 

I would not have thought that we would have public access to the EuroSIPS, but it sounds like that's what the IMME is...I don't know for sure...it doesn't have 500mb height anomaly maps, just precip and temps.

[stadiumwave]

There are 2 different model ensembles...

Your link is the NMME - "The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC."

This link is the IMME - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/iMMEindex.shtml- " International MME: The EuroSIP (European Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction) project is presently a collaboration of ECMWF, MeteoFrance, UKMet Office, and NCEP. Raw data from IMME is not available. IMME is not currently included in NMME, but is provided on the NMME webpage for informative purposes."

User's Guide where I pulled that info: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/users_guide.html

The IMME for August just updated within the last few days.

I would not have thought that we would have public access to the EuroSIPS, but it sounds like that's what the IMME is...I don't know for sure...it doesn't have 500mb height anomaly maps, just precip and temps.

Well...from all that I've read it appears you are correct sir. Good find

[FallsLake]

Here's this years Old Farmers Almanac winter forecast map. As Mac stated about last years, it's a lame map; especially now that it has NC in wet and cool category.

[Cold Rain]

^ Falls, that's the Farmers Almanac, not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac.  Here's the map for the Old Farmer's Almanac, which unfortunately will have us frequently hearing the term "Mid-South winter". :(

 

[FallsLake]

^ Falls, that's the Farmers Almanac, not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac.  Here's the map for the Old Farmer's Almanac, which unfortunately will have us frequently hearing the term "Mid-South winter". :(

 

 

It's really funny to see the difference between the two maps. But look at the source. I'm still going on my "farmers instincts" and will leave it to the: Halloween storm / cold early November = warm winter.  I guarantee that's as accurate as the above maps.  

 

By the way, my wife said she saw a totally black Woolly worm.

[CherokeeGA]

^ Falls, that's the Farmers Almanac, not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac.  Here's the map for the Old Farmer's Almanac, which unfortunately will have us frequently hearing the term "Mid-South winter". :(

 

 

snipped the map

 

I love how the Atlanta metro area is literally at the intersection of Cold & Snowy, Cold & Wet, Normal & Dry.  Heh.

[mackerel_sky]

^ Falls, that's the Farmers Almanac, not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac. Here's the map for the Old Farmer's Almanac, which unfortunately will have us frequently hearing the term "Mid-South winter". :(

winter2015580.jpg

I'm in the cold and snowy part! Raleigh can suck it!

[mackerel_sky]

I also like the "dry" part of the forecast from CA to AL!! They must really do good research on their

" secret" formula for predicting weather! Brick could tell you that a niño will bring wet across the whole southern third of the country!