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Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

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This nino continues on a track towards being a big one when looking at SSTs, VP anomalies, EQSOI, and 850 zonal wind anomalies.  The SST evolution and model forecasts suggest more of a basin wide event, while the current VP anomalies suggest more of an east based event.  Either way, I think we see pre-dominate 500mb negative anomalies in the NE Pacific this winter.  Using a combo of SSTs and the MEI, there were 2 big ninos in the late 1800's.  Combine those with '83 and '98, all of which had +PDO setups, and we get a similar big picture pattern...

 

NLSpfNE.png

8EIMyNV.png

 

The next set down of strong ninos would include 1973, 1931, 1903, 1941, 1966.  I don't like 1973 or 1966 due to those having a -PDO regime which has implications on the resultant north Pacific pattern (Aleutian Ridge / W Coast low in those years).  The '31 and '41 winters had more western Canada ridging and SE troughing (+PNA), and a lot of the seasonal modeling has this look (JAMSTEC, Euro Seasonal, CA SST based model, CPC outlook, CANSIPS, UKMet) so we will have to see how those trend over the next couple of months.

 

Edit: in contrast, the CFS and POAMA look more like my composite above

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Dont take this wrong...but Are you serious?

AGW is real but there is zero literature to support your post. It's just regional variability. While yoUr area has experienced below normal other regions have experienced much above normal.

I encourage you to read the IPCC reports carefully, most notably the 2007 report which outlines RF's and everything i discussed. There are many books such as Introduction to Modern Climate Change, Andrew Dessler, i can provide you that i read in my undergraduate years if you PM me. That concludes my Global Warming posts lol 

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At this point, it's difficult to understand the impact of climate change on specific regions of the globe at specific times of year. We do know the sun has cycles, the nao has cycles, the pdo and amo has cycles. Based on the comments above, maybe the best correlation to snowfall in the SE is the nao, which is probably not all that surprising.

I don't like the thought of a strong, east-based nino. But a basin-wide event with a strong +pdo would be interesting...especially with declining solar and a propensity for a -nao. The last variable seems to be the least confidence of all, though.

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I'm watching this thread carefully.  We will not be getting into a global warming argument here. If that is what you re looking for, take it to the Climate Change forum.

 

 

I'm not looking to get into one, but the poster is posting false information. He's taken a broad AGW possible future climo & applying it to a current regional variability.  Is it not ok to respond?

 

I'm not arguing AGW (I'm no skeptic) but I am against a poster taking accurate science & making a false application to it concerning his area's snowfall.

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One thing that should be noted is that analog's are becoming less useful. I hate to talk about this on the weather forum, but since this is climo i am. Global Warming is reducing snowfall overall for all of NC at a fast pace. So previous decades "snowfall analogs" should be used with caution because if the same pattern shows up, it will be warmer than the analog year. 

Really dude? Please leave the Global Warming stuff on the climate change forum.  :axe:

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I'm not looking to get into one, but the poster is posting false information. He's taken a broad AGW possible future climo & applying it to a current regional variability.  Is it not ok to respond?

 

I'm not arguing AGW (I'm no skeptic) but I am against a poster taking accurate science & making a false application to it concerning his area's snowfall.

 

It is not necessary to respond because we all have brains of our own.  Now, the bigger reason might be that this seems not to want to die after I posted to drop it.  So, I am telling everyone now, the next mention of this and I will delete every post in this thread from the first mention of global warming up to an including the above quoted post. 

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It is not necessary to respond because we all have brains of our own.  Now, the bigger reason might be that this seems not to want to die after I posted to drop it.  So, I am telling everyone now, the next mention of this and I will delete every post in this thread from the first mention of global warming up to and including the above quoted post. 

:clap:

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   One thing we can reasonably count on, is it being a wet winter. As far as the cold goes.... it's a crap shoot right now. There are indications of a warm NE pacific holding on causing a +PNA. However, this is far from certain. One thing to look for, is how the Pacific flow sets up in Oct / Nov. If we see a lot of Aleutian lows, then we will know.

   The "re-curving tropical system" theory has some merit when it comes to getting cold in the east. It can trigger a good pattern, but that's still too far out to speculate. Bottom line is that we don't know how our snowfall chances will play out this winter, but we should count on plenty of wet weather. Since we are in a drought, this should be taken as wonderful news.

   Our higher elevation folks should see a banner snow year with all that moisture around (even if temps are at average)

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   One thing we can reasonably count on, is it being a wet winter. As far as the cold goes.... it's a crap shoot right now. There are indications of a warm NE pacific holding on causing a +PNA. However, this is far from certain. One thing to look for, is how the Pacific flow sets up in Oct / Nov. If we see a lot of Aleutian lows, then we will know.

   The "re-curving tropical system" theory has some merit when it comes to getting cold in the east. It can trigger a good pattern, but that's still too far out to speculate. Bottom line is that we don't know how our snowfall chances will play out this winter, but we should count on plenty of wet weather. Since we are in a drought, this should be taken as wonderful news.

   Our higher elevation folks should see a banner snow year with all that moisture around (even if temps are at average)

Also consider if a -NAO sets up too. One thing thats pretty likely is it will be stormy.

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It is not necessary to respond because we all have brains of our own.  Now, the bigger reason might be that this seems not to want to die after I posted to drop it.  So, I am telling everyone now, the next mention of this and I will delete every post in this thread from the first mention of global warming up to an including the above quoted post. 

 

Totally agree. :santa:

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One thing we can reasonably count on, is it being a wet winter. As far as the cold goes.... it's a crap shoot right now. There are indications of a warm NE pacific holding on causing a +PNA. However, this is far from certain. One thing to look for, is how the Pacific flow sets up in Oct / Nov. If we see a lot of Aleutian lows, then we will know.

The "re-curving tropical system" theory has some merit when it comes to getting cold in the east. It can trigger a good pattern, but that's still too far out to speculate. Bottom line is that we don't know how our snowfall chances will play out this winter, but we should count on plenty of wet weather. Since we are in a drought, this should be taken as wonderful news.

Our higher elevation folks should see a banner snow year with all that moisture around (even if temps are at average)

Great post CAD. We have lots of variables on the table. It will be very interesting looking at things as we head into October which is just right around the corner.
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What is that line?  Plot a 30 year running average...below is RDU's 30 year running average going back to the 1880's.  You can see the cyclical nature of it.  

 

post-0-0-05229100-1422300075.png

 

Interesting graph.  I take it Greensboro used to average over 10"/year once upon a time, then. :(

 

Maybe the city will average that total again in 20 years, though I might not still be living here then.

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Cue up Mr. Bing Crosby...

 

Old Farmer's Almanac: Annual Reference Predicts Freezing Temperatures, Snow for Winter 2015
The latest edition is to be released this week. "Just about everybody who gets snow will have a White Christmas in one capacity or another," editor Janice Stillman told The Associated Press.
 
:D
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WB just tweeted out the SST comparison's of Aug 97/15 to show the differences.   They have comparison maps that go back to 1982 and the closest one I could find was 2009... (2009 on left, 2015 on right).  Comparing both atl/pac.

That's interesting. 2015 is colder in the N Atlantic and warmer in the Pacific. I wonder how that could help or hurt us (in comparison to 2009).

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WB just tweeted out the SST comparison's of Aug 97/15 to show the differences.   They have comparison maps that go back to 1982 and the closest one I could find was 2009... (2009 on left, 2015 on right).  Comparing both atl/pac.

 

Really serves to highlight just how warm that water is, when you see side-by-sides.  When looking at it alone it just doesn't have quite the same effect.

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This nino continues on a track towards being a big one when looking at SSTs, VP anomalies, EQSOI, and 850 zonal wind anomalies.  The SST evolution and model forecasts suggest more of a basin wide event, while the current VP anomalies suggest more of an east based event.  Either way, I think we see pre-dominate 500mb negative anomalies in the NE Pacific this winter.  Using a combo of SSTs and the MEI, there were 2 big ninos in the late 1800's.  Combine those with '83 and '98, all of which had +PDO setups, and we get a similar big picture pattern...

 

NLSpfNE.png

8EIMyNV.png

 

The next set down of strong ninos would include 1973, 1931, 1903, 1941, 1966.  I don't like 1973 or 1966 due to those having a -PDO regime which has implications on the resultant north Pacific pattern (Aleutian Ridge / W Coast low in those years).  The '31 and '41 winters had more western Canada ridging and SE troughing (+PNA), and a lot of the seasonal modeling has this look (JAMSTEC, Euro Seasonal, CA SST based model, CPC outlook, CANSIPS, UKMet) so we will have to see how those trend over the next couple of months.

 

Edit: in contrast, the CFS and POAMA look more like my composite above

Yeah but it's funny how things work out sometimes in those lousy years isn't it?

 

"February 9-10, 2013 marked the 40th anniversary of the greatest snowstorm to hit South Carolina in modern times.  Snow in the South is rare enough, but this set many records across the states of Georgia and South Carolina."

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That map looks lame! I know everybody thinks the world revolves around NC, but this map just makes that point !

Just happen to have the most posters in NC. Would be great if we had more in VA and other SE states further south than GA. Seems it is mostly NC, some SC, and a few GA. Other states are really underrepresented here.

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