TullyHeel Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 1:33 AM, mackerel_sky said: Per WxSouth on Facebook: lots of damming events this winter and likely an 80s throwback kind of winter! Break out the leg warmers and Member's Only jackets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 12:25 PM, Brick Tamland said: Break out the leg warmers and Member's Only jackets! Well done, Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 12:25 PM, Brick Tamland said: Break out the leg warmers and Member's Only jackets! I think I have a "member's only" jacket in a box around here somewhere..... Ah, those were the "good-ole-days". Can I order a March 2, 1980....along with a Jan 8th, 1988 please? While you're at it, throw in a Jan 1987 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 1:48 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I think I have a "member's only" jacket in a box around here somewhere..... Ah, those were the "good-ole-days". Can I order a March 2, 1980....along with a Jan 8th, 1988 please? While you're at it, throw in a Jan 1987 too. Your area in NC must have had 2 feet or more snow in Jan 1987. We got 1 storm down here that month, but it was too warm for the other 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Oct 1 Canadian SIPS looks good again. Overall similar to last month's release. Here's Jan/Feb. +PNA pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No signal is of more value this winter than a + PNA. Hope it verefies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 3:43 PM, NCSNOW said: No signal is of more value this winter than a + PNA. Hope it verefies. I agree and that map shows a massive +PNA, especially Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Sounds familiar.... Al Marinaro @wxmidwest Aug 30 QBO is already +7, -NAO unlikely for #Winter 2015-2016, blocking will need to come from NPAC. #weather #climate #wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 On 10/2/2015 at 5:13 PM, packfan98 said: Sounds familiar.... Al Marinaro @wxmidwest Aug 30 QBO is already +7, -NAO unlikely for #Winter 2015-2016, blocking will need to come from NPAC. #weather #climate #wx I don't think we'll have a -NAO either, but not because Al Marinaro says so. His model, as honked by DT all over facebook last year, had the NAO in the toilet for the winter. Nassomuch. I think we won't have one because not having one seemingly every year has made me pessimistic. For whatever reason, the atmosphere just doesn't want to set up a predominate -NAO state for the winter. However, it seems to have no problem with doing it for the entire summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 On 10/2/2015 at 5:21 PM, Cold Rain said: I don't think we'll have a -NAO either, but not because Al Marinaro says so. His model, as honked by DT all over facebook last year, had the NAO in the toilet for the winter. Nassomuch. I think we won't have one because not having one seemingly every year has made me pessimistic. For whatever reason, the atmosphere just doesn't want to set up a predominate -NAO state for the winter. However, it seems to have no problem with doing it for the entire summer. I saw that, 2-1 odds of a +NAO. I will take a 1/3 chance of a -NAO, last year was a slam dunk -AO and we know how that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I'm curious.. Overall, are the signs of a cold, snowy winter for the SE greater than last year at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I thought the stars were aligned last winter for a cold snowy SE winter. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 On 10/4/2015 at 4:57 PM, GlaringSun said: I'm curious.. Overall, are the signs of a cold, snowy winter for the SE greater than last year at this time? Depends on the signs. Several seasonal models show colder and wetter, but we need to see how this strong Nino continues to evolve through the fall as well as the PDO, QBO, and Eurasian snowcover....not to mention any big east coast October snowstorms! : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 On 10/4/2015 at 5:28 PM, Cold Rain said: not to mention any big east coast October snowstorms! : Please - Noooooooooooooo....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 On 10/4/2015 at 5:18 PM, tarheelwx said: I thought the stars were aligned last winter for a cold snowy SE winter. TW The stars were aligned for the analog snowy cold winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I won't put out a prediction til I see how Eurasia snowcover is looking at the end of this month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 There has never been a winter with any snowfall at all south of 40º when South Carolina has gotten over 20" of rain in the first week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Biblical, historic, 80's throwback, 1800's esque winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 If El Niño is strong as advertisesd , then pacific warm air floods country . That will mean a lot of unhappy people around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/4/2015 at 10:01 PM, jburns said: There has never been a winter with any snowfall at all south of 40º when South Carolina has gotten over 20" of rain in the first week of October. dadgumit ..... (Then - when did SC ever get 20" of rain the 1st week of Oct?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/4/2015 at 5:28 PM, Cold Rain said: Depends on the signs. Several seasonal models show colder and wetter, but we need to see how this strong Nino continues to evolve through the fall as well as the PDO, QBO, and Eurasian snowcover....not to mention any big east coast October snowstorms! : I think with Oct showing a low just setting up south of the Aleutians is a good sign. Lots of cold/snowy Nino analogs with that precursor, specifically some 2nd year. Oct 97 didn't have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/5/2015 at 1:26 AM, pcbjr said: dadgumit ..... (Then - when did SC ever get 20" of rain the 1st week of Oct?) I don't know. But it didn't snow that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/5/2015 at 1:23 AM, Pilotwx said: If El Niño is strong as advertisesd , then pacific warm air floods country . That will mean a lot of unhappy people around here It doesn't make any difference whatsoever how strong the Nino is as far as the Pacific warm air is concerned. What really matters is "where" the Aleutian low sets up for DJF. If it sets up as far west as most guidance suggest then times will be fun. The further east it is for DJF the worse unless there is good NAO blocking. Since I don't expect that then we really need it further west. Sample size is very small & we can't say the same old lingo, that the stronger the Nino the further east Aleutian trough...bologna. Very small sample size & very difficult to determine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/5/2015 at 2:53 AM, jburns said: I don't know. But it didn't snow that winter.It was the winter of 1015/ 16, so you would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/5/2015 at 12:34 PM, NCSNOW said: Wow, what happened to our strong Nino, from that graph it looks to be weaker than it was last winter? At least in that region.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 It's a long nino east to west. If I get tome I'll post a graph but it's really spread out over several regions. It's going to be a big factor and want start fading away till next spring. The stj is in great shape to provide the moisture this winter, all we can stomach. Just need to get the table set up right in the northern pacific. That's the whole key piece to the puzzle this winter. All eyes should be on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/5/2015 at 1:08 PM, SnowNiner said: Wow, what happened to our strong Nino, from that graph it looks to be weaker than it was last winter? At least in that region.... That's enso 4 region only. 1.2, 3 and 3.4 are much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/5/2015 at 1:20 PM, packbacker said: That's enso 4 region only. 1.2, 3 and 3.4 are much warmer. Gotcha, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 On 10/5/2015 at 1:08 PM, SnowNiner said: Wow, what happened to our strong Nino, from that graph it looks to be weaker than it was last winter? At least in that region.... Region 4 doesn't get as warm as the other regions. It's currently at (warm) record levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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