Winter 15-16 Discussion

[griteater]

To kick off the discussion, here are my thoughts/opinions at this point on the upcoming winter.

 

Strong El Nino peaking in the +1.9 to +2.2 range (ONI tri-monthly via NOAA ERSSTv4).  More of a basin wide El Nino as opposed to a strongly east based one like 97-98.

 

The combination of El Nino & the ongoing +PDO regime strongly favors the presence of a low in the north Pacific.  Forecast I like is for the eastern extent of the north Pacific low negative anomalies to butt up right against the W Canadian border.

 

I would expect the southern stream to be more active than normal.

 

As for a composite, I don't solely like any of the specific years in the set (82-83, 86-87, 97-98), but I do like the result of the weighted mean I chose below.

 

AO/NAO: Neutral

 

Temperatures: Near normal temps in the SE (middle image).  I would say that the most unlikely scenario is temps that are well below normal.  Also, I would not expect us to see the severe arctic blasts like we saw the last 2 winters (single digit lows).

 

Precipitation: Above normal in the SE (far right image)

 

Snow & Ice amounts averaged across the SE (AL thru NC, E TN, SE VA applies in this case): I would go with near avg. to slightly above avg. with the chances of a big, widespread winter storm higher than the climatological mean.

 

Clues that show in Sep-Oct will fuel adjustments, but not wholesale changes.

 

[burgertime]

Good write up. With this super Godzilla nino it's hard to argue against one big storm this coming winter.

[mackerel_sky]

Hate to see the 97-98 analog! That was a horrible winter for mby! Luckily, we know how analogs work out!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

As long as its not as horrible as the winter of 14-15 I will be happy. Worst winter ever in my area.

[Met1985]

Good stuff Grit. I think with blocking this winter we will need to pay attention to solar activity also this fall.

[FallsLake]

I just hope the Nino doesn't overwhelm the country with warmth. I think it could go any way in terms of a good snow/ice year. If we get some blocking that could force the storms south. I would venture that the chances of ice may be higher as moisture streams in from the SW (if the cold air is available).  

 

But we all know it really depends on no Halloween storm and no early November cold....

[No snow for you]

My prediction is very few 10 day storms live up to the hype.

[Isopycnic]

Warmish with cold rain.

[GaStorm]

If the NAO can finally go negative we will be in good shape with an active southern jet.

[Met1985]

If the NAO can finally go negative we will be in good shape with an active southern jet.

Yeah I have been paying close attention to the nao region this summer and we have finally got some good blocking up there this summer. Hopefully their is a correlation that leads to this winter because we have not seen good blocking in about 4 years in that region during winter.

[Bob Chill]

Nice early thoughts Grit. The thing about 97-98 that doesn't worry me much is that I don't expect a beastly persistent low height anomaly so close to the NA coast that just pumps the country full of pac air week after week. It could happen but seems a bit unlikely for a few important reasons (different SSTA config in both nino regions and NE Pac). 

 

However, I (like everyone else here) do worry about no help from the Atlantic side. Especially early. 82-83 produced in my area (not sure about you guys) without much help from the Atlantic until Feb. It was a good year totals wise but was basically a 3 storm winter. One in Dec and 2 in Feb. We pretty much got lucky in Dec because the pattern was generally hostile. 

 

65-66 was a great Jan-Feb in our parts. 72-73 would make me want to punch holes in the walls but luckily I was too young to care. 

 

I don't have many thoughts at all yet other than the odds favor above normal precip and temps shouldn't be nearly as cold as the last 2 years. Let the chips fall I guess. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

People keep saying there will be above normal precip but aren't el nino winters often dry in parts of the south ? Particularly north AL/GA/Tenn valley ?

[griteater]

Good write up. With this super Godzilla nino it's hard to argue against one big storm this coming winter.

Godzilla nino, I like it

 

Warmish with cold rain.

That's a mid-winter's day dream for Iso, right?

 

People keep saying there will be above normal precip but aren't el nino winters often dry in parts of the south ? Particularly north AL/GA/Tenn valley ?

Cursory look reveals that most of TN is normally a bit below avg precip in Ninos, and that dryness bleeds south into N MS / N AL during weak/mod Ninos.  

 

Reverse pattern is favored during Ninas (below)

 

[Cold Rain]

Nice Grit! I like the write-up, but I'm fully prepared for a warm winter this year. I hope we get a big blockbuster though.

[griteater]

Nice early thoughts Grit. The thing about 97-98 that doesn't worry me much is that I don't expect a beastly persistent low height anomaly so close to the NA coast that just pumps the country full of pac air week after week. It could happen but seems a bit unlikely for a few important reasons (different SSTA config in both nino regions and NE Pac). 

 

However, I (like everyone else here) do worry about no help from the Atlantic side. Especially early. 82-83 produced in my area (not sure about you guys) without much help from the Atlantic until Feb. It was a good year totals wise but was basically a 3 storm winter. One in Dec and 2 in Feb. We pretty much got lucky in Dec because the pattern was generally hostile. 

 

65-66 was a great Jan-Feb in our parts. 72-73 would make me want to punch holes in the walls but luckily I was too young to care. 

 

I don't have many thoughts at all yet other than the odds favor above normal precip and temps shouldn't be nearly as cold as the last 2 years. Let the chips fall I guess. 

Thanks Bob.  '66, '73, and '83 would all be categorized, in general, as good winters down here.  There were 2 big storms in '73 that were suppressed for you guys....and another one in Mar '83 

[packbacker]

Great writeup grit!  Just looking at how last year shook out and looking at analogs of neutral positive/weak nino years with +PDO it ended up verifying fairly well.

 

Assuming we the +PDO and looking at moderate to strong Nino's it's quite different than last winter...should be interesting to see how this unfolds.

 

 

(Note, first 2 pics are analogs and what verified for last winter.  The 3rd/last pic is mod/strong nino's with +PDO).

[packbacker]

Nice early thoughts Grit. The thing about 97-98 that doesn't worry me much is that I don't expect a beastly persistent low height anomaly so close to the NA coast that just pumps the country full of pac air week after week. It could happen but seems a bit unlikely for a few important reasons (different SSTA config in both nino regions and NE Pac). 

 

However, I (like everyone else here) do worry about no help from the Atlantic side. Especially early. 82-83 produced in my area (not sure about you guys) without much help from the Atlantic until Feb. It was a good year totals wise but was basically a 3 storm winter. One in Dec and 2 in Feb. We pretty much got lucky in Dec because the pattern was generally hostile. 

 

65-66 was a great Jan-Feb in our parts. 72-73 would make me want to punch holes in the walls but luckily I was too young to care. 

 

I don't have many thoughts at all yet other than the odds favor above normal precip and temps shouldn't be nearly as cold as the last 2 years. Let the chips fall I guess. 

 

Somehow you jokers will be 200% of climo, which only seems to be skyrocketing every winter....

 

Get your shovels ready...

[calculus1]

People keep saying there will be above normal precip but aren't el nino winters often dry in parts of the south ? Particularly north AL/GA/Tenn valley ?

 

Correct, but that doesn't really matter since we only care about NC weather around here. 

[Bob Chill]

Somehow you jokers will be 200% of climo, which only seems to be skyrocketing every winter....

 

Get your shovels ready...

 

I'll still root for you guys regardless. I'm kinda stoked on the big storm prospects. We've had good snow up here but it took a lot of events to get there. We need the big bowling ball miller A to turn the corner and bury us all and then get pushed out to sea by a mega block leaving NYC-SNE high and dry. lol.

 

There really hasn't been a classic Miller A since 2010. Feb 2014 was close but still flawed, strung out, and weird. We'll prob see some this winter. Ptype TBD

[FallsLake]

Here's Dec - Feb from CPC:

 

[Brick Tamland]

And we're off.

 

Last winter was supposed to be big but ended up average here because February saved us.

 

Would love to get at least one big snow storm for a change. 

[griteater]

Here's Dec - Feb from CPC:

 

That looks similar to WxSouth's ideas on Facebook.....would be active on here if true

[mackerel_sky]

This winter could be "Historic".

[jshetley]

If we get another winter like 1986-1987, I'm not sure this board could handle it. Especially another period like Jan 20-26 of 1987. We would probably crash the server. 

[LithiaWx]

Strong El Niño winters around here are usually very wet but not cold. As others have said the STJ tends to just overwhelm everything. I've also heard that -NAOs are actually not favored during strong Nino's. That said after all the failed anal logs from last year I have a hard time putting any faith in them.

No surprise Wxsouth is already on the cold and snow train. I would expect nothing less from a person who is a hype peddler.

[Met1985]

Strong El Niño winters around here are usually very wet but not cold. As others have said the STJ tends to just overwhelm everything. I've also heard that -NAOs are actually not favored during strong Nino's. That said after all the failed anal logs from last year I have a hard time putting any faith in them.

No surprise Wxsouth is already on the cold and snow train. I would expect nothing less from a person who is a hype peddler.

Meh I would not call Robert a hype peddler. Their have been several meteorologist who have missed pretty bad in recent years. I do agree anologs are out the window with all the failed ones in recent years. Also I think the Siberian snow cover has taken a huge hit the last couple of years. Especially last year. I think being very cautious is the way to go.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Strong El Niño winters around here are usually very wet but not cold. As others have said the STJ tends to just overwhelm everything. I've also heard that -NAOs are actually not favored during strong Nino's. That said after all the failed anal logs from last year I have a hard time putting any faith in them.

No surprise Wxsouth is already on the cold and snow train. I would expect nothing less from a person who is a hype peddler.

for some reason I always thought strong el nino tended to bring average rainfall or even below to northern GA,AL and TN with the heavier rains along the gulf and Atlantic coasts. Maybe that's just weak to moderate ninos. I'm not sure.

[FallsLake]

for some reason I always thought strong el nino tended to bring average rainfall or even below to northern GA,AL and TN with the heavier rains along the gulf and Atlantic coasts. Maybe that's just weak to moderate ninos. I'm not sure.

The CPC maps I posted have a very heavy el nino(ish) depiction. That would favor your thoughts on where the heaviest rains would predominate. I'm actually surprised they showed as much below normal temp probabilities for the SE. In years past they've trimmed back on the extent across the south for upcoming el nino patterns. --> We also have to be careful to associate the below temps to ice/snow. As many of us know 33 and rain is still below normal (...for most).        

[mackerel_sky]

The CPC maps I posted have a very heavy el nino(ish) depiction. That would favor your thoughts on where the heaviest rains would predominate. I'm actually surprised they showed as much below normal temp probabilities for the SE. In years past they've trimmed back on the extent across the south for upcoming el nino patterns. --> We also have to be careful to associate the below temps to ice/snow. As many of us know 33 and rain is still below normal (...for most).

Below normal for us can be 48 and rain! Our lowest avg high is 50, around GSP in Jan. that's why you see cool across gulf coast and above in the N Plains. A day above 35 is above avg for most up there in the heart of winter.

[FallsLake]

Below normal for us can be 48 and rain! Our lowest avg high is 50, around GSP in Jan. that's why you see cool across gulf coast and above in the N Plains. A day above 35 is above avg for most up there in the heart of winter.

Honestly that is my fear that we get a cool, dreary, wet winter. The last two years we've been able to score some wintery precip without a negative NAO, but I think it will be very crucial for us this year.