Paper: Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities

[donsutherland1]

Abstract:

 

When storm surge and heavy precipitation co-occur, the potential for flooding in low-lying coastal areas is often much greater than from either in isolation. Knowing the probability of these compound events and understanding the processes driving them is essential to mitigate the associated high-impact risks^{1, 2}. Here we determine the likelihood of joint occurrence of these two phenomena for the contiguous United States (US) and show that the risk of compound flooding is higher for the Atlantic/Gulf coast relative to the Pacific coast. We also provide evidence that the number of compound events has increased significantly over the past century at many of the major coastal cities. Long-term sea-level rise is the main driver for accelerated flooding along the US coastline^{3, 4}; however, under otherwise stationary conditions (no trends in individual records), changes in the joint distributions of storm surge and precipitation associated with climate variability and change also augment flood potential. For New York City (NYC)—as an example—the observed increase in compound events is attributed to a shift towards storm surge weather patterns that also favour high precipitation. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing compound flooding in a non-stationary framework and its linkages to weather and climate.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2736.html

 

The complete paper can be found at:

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/nclimate2736.pdf

[stadiumwave]

Abstract:

When storm surge and heavy precipitation co-occur, the potential for flooding in low-lying coastal areas is often much greater than from either in isolation. Knowing the probability of these compound events and understanding the processes driving them is essential to mitigate the associated high-impact risks^{1, 2}. Here we determine the likelihood of joint occurrence of these two phenomena for the contiguous United States (US) and show that the risk of compound flooding is higher for the Atlantic/Gulf coast relative to the Pacific coast. We also provide evidence that the number of compound events has increased significantly over the past century at many of the major coastal cities. Long-term sea-level rise is the main driver for accelerated flooding along the US coastline^{3, 4}; however, under otherwise stationary conditions (no trends in individual records), changes in the joint distributions of storm surge and precipitation associated with climate variability and change also augment flood potential. For New York City (NYC)—as an example—the observed increase in compound events is attributed to a shift towards storm surge weather patterns that also favour high precipitation. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing compound flooding in a non-stationary framework and its linkages to weather and climate.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2736.html

The complete paper can be found at:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/nclimate2736.pdf

Real easy adaptive solution...stop building so dang close to the coast looking to $$cash in.

[PhillipS]

Real easy adaptive solution...stop building so dang close to the coast looking to $$cash in.

 

Your response is simple, direct . . . and totally worthless.  The US already has over a trillion in real estate in jeopardy from rising sea level.  And there are several trillion more at risk around the world.  It will take massive efforts to save some of that, and much of it will have to be abandoned.  Who do you think will pay for the damage caused by sea level rise?  (Spoiler alert - it won't be the wealthy developers and corporations, it will be the taxpayers.)

[stadiumwave]

Your response is simple, direct . . . and totally worthless. The US already has over a trillion in real estate in jeopardy from rising sea level. And there are several trillion more at risk around the world. It will take massive efforts to save some of that, and much of it will have to be abandoned. Who do you think will pay for the damage caused by sea level rise? (Spoiler alert - it won't be the wealthy developers and corporations, it will be the taxpayers.)

I totally know...and it was meant to be sarcasm.

But on a more serious note we are still foolishly building where we shouldn't in light of this.

[PhillipS]

I totally know...and it was meant to be sarcasm.

But on a more serious note we are still foolishly building where we shouldn't in light of this.

 

No argument with your statement that we are building where we shouldn't.

[superjames1992]

I'm glad I live 900 ft ASL.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

This Is a very very serious point.

My house is at 7' ASl and we had a 7' total storm tide during sandy. We also had only around an inch of rain which fell well before the surge portion of the storm

Despite being less then a mile from the bay and 2 blocks from a canal we had zero damage zero!!! Even just a few inches of rain and it would have had no where to go and we would have been devastated (runoff)

Again serious stuff

[Rjay]

This Is a very very serious point.

My house is at 7' ASl and we had a 7' total storm tide during sandy. We also had only around an inch of rain which fell well before the surge portion of the storm

Despite being less then a mile from the bay and 2 blocks from a canal we had zero damage zero!!! Even just a few inches of rain and it would have had no where to go and we would have been devastated (runoff)

Again serious stuff

Shocked you had no damage and shocked it was only a 7' storn tide by you.