Powerball Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Interesting observation by Evan Bentley at IWX concerning next week: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR STRENGTHENING...AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS 10-14 DAYS AFTER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS (SOUDELOR) ARE INGESTED INTO MID-LATITUDE FLOW. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW HOW THIS MAY IMPACT OUR LOCAL WEATHER...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVOLVES. In other words, more of the same (seasonable/cool but "active")... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Today was the 27th consecutive 80+ day at ORD, making it tied for the 8th longest stretch on record. 80's are a lock through early next week, so should make it into the top 5. Consecutive 80+ Days: 1. 46 - 7/2-8/16/2010 2. 44 - 6/26-8/8/2012 3. 42 - 6/27-8/7/1955 4. 34 - 8/4-9/6/1995 5. 32 - 7/8-8/8/1983 6. 30 - 6/20-7/19/1921 7. 29 - 7/21-8/18/1988 8. 27 - 7/17-??? 8. 27 - 7/14-8/9/2011 8. 27 - 7/11-8/6/1999 8. 27 - 6/18-7/14/1966 near shore beach waters were florida-esque in 2010 and 2012 it's pretty wild/impressive to be sniffing top 5 again considering how cool the pattern has felt for the past couple years. either way, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2015 all in the top 8...climate change FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Today was the 27th consecutive 80+ day at ORD, making it tied for the 8th longest stretch on record. 80's are a lock through early next week, so should make it into the top 5. Consecutive 80+ Days: 1. 46 - 7/2-8/16/2010 2. 44 - 6/26-8/8/2012 3. 42 - 6/27-8/7/1955 4. 34 - 8/4-9/6/1995 5. 32 - 7/8-8/8/1983 6. 30 - 6/20-7/19/1921 7. 29 - 7/21-8/18/1988 8. 27 - 7/17-??? 8. 27 - 7/14-8/9/2011 8. 27 - 7/11-8/6/1999 8. 27 - 6/18-7/14/1966 Wow. I have only hit 80 (3 out of 12 days) this month. Is this consistent with rural areas or does the UHI taint this station pretty good? Peaked at 74F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 near shore beach waters were florida-esque in 2010 and 2012 it's pretty wild/impressive to be sniffing top 5 again considering how cool the pattern has felt for the past couple years. either way, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2015 all in the top 8...climate change FTW I'm sure this plays a part, but.... the same weather in ORD from 1880 - 1950 +/-, would probably have ended this streak a while back. All those 80-81 degree days would have been upper 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Wow. I have only hit 80 (3 out of 12 days) this month. Is this consistent with rural areas or does the UHI taint this station pretty good? Peaked at 74F today.It's pretty consistent. I'm about 15 miles west of ORD in the more suburban area away from the immediate UHI, and have the same streak going. In addition to that, I have more 90+ days on the season as well... 7 here, 5 at ORD and 10 at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Next Monday could be a healthy Severe Day possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Very nice again today. Onshore flow definitely has an impact still. High of 73°, low of 57°. Only two 80° days here this month and one 90° day this month/year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Today was the 27th consecutive 80+ day at ORD, making it tied for the 8th longest stretch on record. 80's are a lock through early next week, so should make it into the top 5. Consecutive 80+ Days: 1. 46 - 7/2-8/16/2010 2. 44 - 6/26-8/8/2012 3. 42 - 6/27-8/7/1955 4. 34 - 8/4-9/6/1995 5. 32 - 7/8-8/8/1983 6. 30 - 6/20-7/19/1921 7. 29 - 7/21-8/18/1988 8. 27 - 7/17-??? 8. 27 - 7/14-8/9/2011 8. 27 - 7/11-8/6/1999 8. 27 - 6/18-7/14/1966 Hasn't been overwhelmingly hot this summer, but it's definitely consistently warm which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Hey Cyclone you going to be documenting tonight as well? http://io9.com/the-best-meteor-shower-of-the-year-is-tonight-and-here-1723568562 Nah, but did go out and watch for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I just realized... the GFS on weather.cod.edu now has a mid-level lapse rate parameter. I remember someone in this subforum goes to COD and I mentioned it would be sweet to have that parameter to track the EML... so thanks to whoever it was... so glad they did it. It's so interesting/educational to watch the EML plume try to advect from the desert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I just realized... the GFS on weather.cod.edu now has a mid-level lapse rate parameter. I remember someone in this subforum goes to COD and I mentioned it would be sweet to have that parameter to track the EML... so thanks to whoever it was... so glad they did it. It's so interesting/educational to watch the EML plume try to advect from the desert Now all they need to add are the 10 meter wind speeds similar to the other heights and I'll be happy. LRs were a great addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I was surprised to hear about the streak at ord as well. Interesting that a summer with well below normal 90s and below normal temps Overall will contain such a streak. Ord was -1.6F in July and +0.6F in Aug yet they have that streak going. Very steady, unchanging pattern in place. No such streak at DTW, several August days in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I'm sure this plays a part, but.... the same weather in ORD from 1880 - 1950 +/-, would probably have ended this streak a while back. All those 80-81 degree days would have been upper 70's.Chicagos official weather station has only been at ORD for a short time. The early 20th century and late 19th century were actually at a location on the water if I remember correctly. 2010-12 were a trio of broiling summers we all remember, so it's no surprise to see them on the list. Locally at Detroit, while the hot days were piling up in those 3 years, the number of hot days has been well below normal in 2008-09, 2013-15. The 2000s saw the LEAST 90F+ days in 100 years. It will be interesting to see how the 2010s end up because they started on a record pace 3 years in which has screeched to a halt the last 3 years. It will be all about 2016-19 to see where this decade ends up wrt summer heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 A lot of mid level clouds interrupting the warming today. Dewpoint getting close to the uncomfortable threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Temps busted low today. High of 81° it looks like. Dewpoints still not that bad. Down to 14 hours of daylight now. About an hour and 18 minutes of daylight loss since the solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Despite the overall dryness the last 3 week's....the mosquitos have been the worst the last few days compared to the rest of the summer. Maybe the waters were finally not disturbed (by countless downpours the first 2 months of summer in comparison) enough to let them all grow and fly and bite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow becomes the warmest day of this summer. Need to beat 92 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow for WI / IL / MI. NAM, RAP and GFS are advertising 2000 to 4000 J/KG of CAPE along with LIs of -6 to -10. Decent instability for sure. It's just a matter of realizing and then utilizing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 71/67 this morning, with 10mph winds from the SE. It looks like we could hit 90 on Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 WPC 7 day QPF totals looks moist through southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and west central Wisco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Looking like a good pulse thunderstorm day here in SE Michigan today. (Along with tomorrow, and at least the next five days thereafter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow becomes the warmest day of this summer. Need to beat 92 degrees. Heat Advisory posted thru this evening and may be needed tomorrow as well. HI up to 100F expected. Total Amazon feel out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Heat Advisory posted thru this evening and may be needed tomorrow as well. HI up to 100F expected. Total Amazon feel out there. Had 93-94 degrees in mind last night. Looks like we are in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Can we hit 90 (maybe) one last time on Sunday at DTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 LOT slashing temps again another possible hottest day of the summer ending up in the low 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Had a lot of debris clouds and showers up until 10am today. Probably end up with a lake breeze today instead. Very humid out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 LOT slashing temps again another possible hottest day of the summer ending up in the low 80s It'll get warmer than low 80s, already 81 at ORD and 80 at MDW, but yeah definitely a bit lower than expected again. The extreme warm bias on the RAP/HRRR is pretty entertaining today and also why they're breaking out fairly widespread convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 today had potential for some decent outlfow driven south movers to ride down the western edge of the lake but it's looking less and less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 14, 2015 Author Share Posted August 14, 2015 It'll get warmer than low 80s, already 81 at ORD and 80 at MDW, but yeah definitely a bit lower than expected again. The extreme warm bias on the RAP/HRRR is pretty entertaining today and also why they're breaking out fairly widespread convection. Could use the rain. Looks like a prolonged period of generally seasonable to above average temps coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Looking good for some form of convection here late today (despite cloud debris). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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