CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The H5 trough actually looked sharper and a bit SW of 00z. I'd still watch it, esp ORH east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 We had one last year on August 13th Damage In Tolland Posted 9 August 2014 - 04:19 PM I just have strong doubts of a nor'easter in mid August. There's a reason they don't really happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Ens are a whiff. Chucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Damage In Tolland Posted 9 August 2014 - 04:19 PM I just have strong doubts of a nor'easter in mid August. There's a reason they don't really happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Hurtful words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 We had one last year on August 13th Upper 50s to low 60s 13-14, 2.6" rain. August 6-8, 2008: Highs 61/57/58; 2.4" cold windy rain, Oct/Nov in late summer. Similar stuff happens in about one August in three - not an everyday event but not rare, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Nice hit for SE NE on the 18z NAM Slowed way down too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Most of the 12z Euro ensemble members are a miss. Only 4 or 5 members show a notable impact storm. Most are otherwise weak and strung out. It's kind of funny that the OP Euro is more robust than the ensembles, but the GFS ensembles are a bit more organized than the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Most of the 12z Euro ensemble members are a miss. Only 4 or 5 members show a notable impact storm. Most are otherwise weak and strung out. It's kind of funny that the OP Euro is more robust than the ensembles, but the GFS ensembles are a bit more organized than the OP GFS. I'm still pissed at the EURO OP from the big blizzard last winter, lol. Over 1" of QPF on a 12 hour forecast turned into 0.2" in the end. I'm sure NYC folks remember some of those runs quite well, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I'm still pissed at the EURO OP from the big blizzard last winter, lol. Over 1" of QPF on a 12 hour forecast turned into 0.2" in the end. I'm sure NYC folks remember some of those runs quite well, haha. 24-36" forecast as the event was starting turned into 6" here in Dobbs Ferry LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 I'm still pissed at the EURO OP from the big blizzard last winter, lol. Over 1" of QPF on a 12 hour forecast turned into 0.2" in the end. I'm sure NYC folks remember some of those runs quite well, haha. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Wonder if OKX ever recovered from that. Just completely bought euro hook, line, and sinker. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Wonder if OKX ever recovered from that. Just completely bought euro hook, line, and sinker. Oops. It's like it was planned five years ago, by the Euro model. Muahahahaha. Tje Euro began uncanningly to shine .. pulling people's trust and faith in ever deeper, after spanning pattern after pattern, event after event, ...year after year in pounding accuracy. With such panache in skill proven in massive sample set, there was no way in hell the hapless Meteorologist of that office had any hope. They were doomed right there. Throw in a bit of human condition over the fact that their near-by neighbors just up the way in SNE were basking in the glory of butthole high snow depths, along with 15,000,000 possible souls set in peril... man, they say every airplane disaster only happens after a chain of events... well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 the euro shows a miss. no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 the euro shows a miss. no surpriseNone of us are either, but I bet you stayed up until 230a because you couldn't wait to be the first to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 COC weekend en-route. We take, we run, we pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Wow is that a deep trough next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Well the WAR ended up the CAR which made a big difference and allows that persistent weakness in the height field to hold over us with some periods of deep troffiness as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Euro pounds early week and that system has ensemble support and the GFS has shown it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Well the WAR ended up the CAR which made a big difference and allows that persistent weakness in the height field to hold over us with some periods of deep troffiness as modeled. Coc a doodle do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 None of us are either, but I bet you stayed up until 230a because you couldn't wait to be the first to post it. sleepless in New Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Man.. Big time dry pattern setting up thru next week it appears with freaking nw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Man.. Big time dry pattern setting up thru next week it appears with freaking nw flow early next week looks wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Man.. Big time dry pattern setting up thru next week it appears with freaking nw flow early next week looks wet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Man.. Big time dry pattern setting up thru next week it appears with freaking nw flow lol - I mean did you even look at a computer model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 lol - I mean did you even look at a computer model?Just going off gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Just going off gut Imodium is needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Just going off gut Enjoy your rain next week and be thankful that this weekend looks to be salvaged, at least away from the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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