forkyfork Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 lots of overdone cold forecasts on the first few pages of this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 lots of overdone cold forecasts on the first few pages of this thread really because to me it looks exactly the same and there is not a mention of the word cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Highs in the lower 70s today, upper 60s tomorrow, low 70s on Friday and mid-70s on Saturday in the zone forecast. Going to be a great feeling next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The EC op looked like a classic overdone system for Saturday. It's no surprise it backed off a bit. Still a risk for showers Saturday in eastern areas I think for now. Might warm up a bit towards mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 lots of overdone cold forecasts on the first few pages of this thread I even bought in a little ... but not so far as to 'forecast' anything. It's just been the tenor of the summer to personally f-over anyone whose sense of happiness comes from heat. ha. But conditions have tended toward cooler resulting at least excuse imaginable, ...seemingly at times engineering a way to do so... This whole nor'easter look for this upcoming weekend is all but gone entirely, and shows two things for me: 1) yet again, the Euro wanted people to believe a deeper EC solution in it's D5-7 range. 2) it hearkens quite a bit to the summer as a whole, where ... although it has averaged less than stellar for higher heat, over all the guidance have been too zealot with the scale of the cool anomalies as a standard sort of mid-range error. Even the GFS has been guilty at times. heh, could still happen I suppose, but I suspect there's too much progressive nature to the flow to allow an anomalous coastal. We'll see. Whatever happens .... some sort of trough should either be transiently in play, or vestigially locked until further notice. The CDC and CPC NAO is forecast to move positive by the end of D7 from last night... We'll see if that further notice is up at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I think what we are seeing here .. Finally in the model world with the cold backing off and warming quickly ..Is models picking up on the super Nino.. I'm afraid that is going to be a persistent theme these next 4-5 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I think what we are seeing here .. Finally in the model world with the cold backing off and warming quickly ..Is models picking up on the super Nino.. I'm afraid that is going to be a persistent theme these next 4-5 months Kevin, that is a poorly thought out response. What are the latest ssta? We're not super yet though we may well be soon. We've seen this in many Nino summers regardless of strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The Euro is a washout for most of Eastern New England on Sunday. 1000mb over the benchmark. 2-4" of rain for most of RI/MA and Eastern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 Holy Euro, wow what a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 Kevin, that is a poorly thought out response. What are the latest ssta? We're not super yet though we may well be soon. We've seen this in many Nino summers regardless of strength. This^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 DITs favorite Twitter pal Eric Fisher @ericfisher 60s60 seconds ago Those who don't like big heat and/or humidity - upcoming stretch is for you. Absolutely none of it through the start of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 the euro is entirely on its own for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 The pattern change begins Aug 5th and is complete by Aug 8th Eric Fisher @ericfisher 1m1 minute ago In fact, most towns shouldn't touch 80º again until at least sometime next week. Big change compared to the recent 90s/upper 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 the euro is entirely on its own for this weekend Certainly is wow what a difference, lets see how this plays out. Teleconnections would support it, nice block shown in Tweet put out by Ryan Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Some of the 12z GEFS members were quite a bit amped up too on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 the euro is entirely on its own for this weekend Except the giant jump northwest of the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 Gulf opens up, tropical hybrids round the mid Atlantic ridge, if we get a tropical system there's a pretty good setup. The return of the Noreaster and heavy precip as we switch pattern. Should be NB Well advertised, if The Euro sticks with this I would not be surprised if it happens at all based on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Certainly is wow what a difference, lets see how this plays out. Teleconnections would support it, nice block shown in Tweet put out by Ryan Maue that map argues for further south low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 Except the giant jump northwest of the 12z GEFS yea thats certainly a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 that map argues for further south low placement I am hoping so as we launch our 35 foot Mishoon canoe made by burning the hull out Saturday with a huge event at Mystic Seaport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Except the giant jump northwest of the 12z GEFS i see one or two members that support the 2" amounts the euro has for most of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 this is going the wrong way for us hoping for an OTS solution especially ENE, back on page 1, I mentioned how this upcoming week had that look and teleconnection support. IDK if the Euro OP is right but boy its very concerning that GEFS and GEPS are trending NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 It's August. Synoptic rainers unlikely. Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 lol, coastals in early August, good jokes being passed around today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 It's August. Synoptic rainers unlikely. Tossed We had one three years ago. Logic, tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 It's August. Synoptic rainers unlikely. Tossed Didn't you say that in June when we got like 3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 We had one three years ago. Logic, tossed. We had one last year on August 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Euro Ens are east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 We had one last year on August 13th Yeah you're right. I was thinking more the nor'easter type. That one wasn't classic...but yeah that would be more synoptic. They can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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