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August 2015 Pattern and Disco


Ginx snewx

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I think it got pinched a bit as it was trying to advect northeast and we had a lot of cloudiness as a result which didn't help either.

Unfortunately some were expecting a lot of 96s and 97s and the only thing that supported that was MET guidance which should be taken with a grain of salt to begin with in the summer.

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Unfortunately some were expecting a lot of 96s and 97s and the only thing that supported that was MET guidance which should be taken with a grain of salt to begin with in the summer.

Yeah the MET numbers were awful but I remember MAV beig too warm also. But not as bad. MAV was spitting out 90 for ORH for a few runs leading into it.

Maybe this one won't underperform.

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The warmth that we'll have over the next few days is akin to having a winter storm finally verify a warning in mid-February when 6" of snow are reported in Lunenberg.  What we have here is a dead-ratter of a warm season for those who clamor for HHH.

 

Don't get me started on winter 2013-2014 ;)

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Yeah the MET numbers were awful but I remember MAV beig too warm also. But not as bad. MAV was spitting out 90 for ORH for a few runs leading into it.

Maybe this one won't underperform.

I guess the question is, what is everyone expecting Wed/Thu?

 

19-20C 850s are only about 1C warmer than the last warm stretch. So I'd assume the hot spots peak around 93-96F?

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My goodness ... the 00z NAM veered the Wednesday afternoon wind field just slightly and BOS shoots to 30 C in the T1 layer.  The index finger rule is to add 2 - 3 C from that level to get the 2-meter, assuming no obstruction -- which I don't see any here.  That's 93 F proper at Logan, which despite MOS products, that's the warmest I have seen the FRH grid ...  until, the 06z... 

 

The wind is turned subtly more into a west direction and now eastern coastal zones are completely at the mercy of the broiler.  Full sun, 10 kt off-shote through 20 C at 850 and superb mixing altitudes at 31 C is like a 35 C 2-meter temp there.  95 or 96 ... not bad, and does qualify (tho subjective) as "big heat" in my mind. 

 

That Wedensday night in the urban centers could be a hoot - 

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