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August 2015 Pattern and Disco


Ginx snewx

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BDL has a good shot at 4 Sat-Tue. I'll go 7 of 90+.

 

 

7-8 is reasonable . Unless one was following op runs or something similar

Still thinking this?

Thursday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 3am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Sunday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
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Still thinking this?

Thursday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 3am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Sunday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 83.

 

Between that date and end of warm season which is what the discussion was? Yes.

They are at 3..Tomorrow and Wed are 5. i just need 2 more lol

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foreseeable future, ? Next Thursday begins the descent so a Sun -Wed heat wave, meh on the humidity too, low 60's stuff nothing in the oppressive category. dog days as usual.

Still think this?

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

BRADLEY INTL MOSUNNY 92 66 42 CALM 30.00F HX 94

HARTFORD PTSUNNY 88 71 57 SE7 30.00S HX 94

BRIDGEPORT SUNNY 88 73 61 S9 30.01F HX 95

DANBURY SUNNY 90 63 40 W7 30.04F HX 91

GROTON SUNNY 80 73 79 S7 30.03S

NEW HAVEN MOSUNNY 86 72 62 S9 30.02F HX 92

CHESTER NOT AVBL

MERIDEN SUNNY 90 66 45 S9 30.01F HX 92

WILLIMANTIC PTSUNNY 90 68 48 S12 30.02F HX 94

OXFORD MOSUNNY 84 68 58 S9 30.08F

$

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No relief..just soup and dews..dews soup

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- WARM AND MUGGY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK

except you conviently left out the extended

AS

WAVE ACTION STEMS E OUT OF THE C-CONUS LIKELY TO SEE USHERANCES OF

COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECTED BY NW-FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES

TRAILING SUBSEQUENT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THE C-

CONUS AND THEN LIFT NE INTO CANADA SLOWING AS THEY UNDERGO A MATURE

TO DYING PHASE...AS IT APPEARS WITH THE BULK FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR

NOW. THE FIRST OF THESE OCCURS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...PERHAPS

ANOTHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE 17.0Z ECMWF. MORE ON THAT

BELOW.

SOME QUESTION AS OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH W INTO NEW

ENGLAND. HEIGHTS APPEAR TO STAGNANT ACROSS THE REGION. YET TRAILING

FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING N/E THROUGH THE C-

CONUS TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF WET-WEATHER

ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MOSTLY

N/W ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY / NW NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD

COINCIDENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS/FORCING. BY FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE

REGION. WHETHER IT STALLS FOR THE WEEKEND AND REMAINS A FOCUS FOR

WET-WEATHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN PARENT TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH

RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY...BUT AS ALLUDED TO

EARLIER COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SWEEP THE REGION AS

ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY SKIRTS THROUGH THE PREFERRED TROUGH PATTERN

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except you conviently left out the extended

AS

WAVE ACTION STEMS E OUT OF THE C-CONUS LIKELY TO SEE USHERANCES OF

COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECTED BY NW-FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES

TRAILING SUBSEQUENT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THE C-

CONUS AND THEN LIFT NE INTO CANADA SLOWING AS THEY UNDERGO A MATURE

TO DYING PHASE...AS IT APPEARS WITH THE BULK FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR

NOW. THE FIRST OF THESE OCCURS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...PERHAPS

ANOTHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE 17.0Z ECMWF. MORE ON THAT

BELOW.

SOME QUESTION AS OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH W INTO NEW

ENGLAND. HEIGHTS APPEAR TO STAGNANT ACROSS THE REGION. YET TRAILING

FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING N/E THROUGH THE C-

CONUS TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF WET-WEATHER

ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MOSTLY

N/W ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY / NW NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD

COINCIDENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS/FORCING. BY FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE

REGION. WHETHER IT STALLS FOR THE WEEKEND AND REMAINS A FOCUS FOR

WET-WEATHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN PARENT TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH

RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY...BUT AS ALLUDED TO

EARLIER COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SWEEP THE REGION AS

ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY SKIRTS THROUGH THE PREFERRED TROUGH PATTERN

Did you miss this from the AFD? ooops

 

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MILD OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE POSSIBILITY

OF NUISANCE PATCHY DENSE FOG. DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-

60S.

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The average number of August days at BDL with a 70+ low is 2.4. So far this month BDL has not had one. Also looking ahead to September, if you throw out 1983 and 1961 (does anyone really see those patterns walking through the door?), BDL has never had more than 4 90+ days, and getting more than 1 in September has occurred just 27 times, 25 if you throw out '83 and '61, in 110 years of record keeping.

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I honestly bought into a couple of days of really hot model runs hook,line, and sinker when putting out my 10 days out of 30 90+ at BDL call. BDL will get 4 tommorrow but Wedesday looks touchy at best. The weeklies and ensembles have a transient /overall slightly to perhaps moderately AN at times look along with a few decent troughs for good measure. Without getting the heat to last through this week I am skeptical of my 10 day 90+ call. 7 days may be more realistic.

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I honestly bought into a couple of days of really hot model runs hook,line, and sinker when putting out my 10 days out of 30 90+ at BDL call. BDL will get 4 tommorrow but Wedesday looks touchy at best. The weeklies and ensembles have a transient /overall slightly to perhaps moderately AN at times look along with a few decent troughs for good measure. Without getting the heat to last through this week I am skeptical of my 10 day 90+ call. 7 days may be more realistic.

you had company
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It's still somewhat impressive warmth for some that you have been going out of you're way to downplay.

I'm just curious where locally this warmth would be considered impressive? Using BDL as the proxy for our small state, including today, the monthly departure is up to +0.9, number of 90 degree days is now at 4 (normal for the whole month is 4.0), and as I mentioned earlier below normal on warm muggy nights. In terms of extremes the high for the month is 93 which ties it for 50th hottest August monthly high temperature out of 110 Augusts. Also 2 of the 3 days reached 90+ for what amounts to maybe an hour or two combined while heat indices have been pretty tame (mostly low-90s). You know the heat isn't impressive when OKX can't even issue heat advisories with their special watered down criteria for the 5 boroughs.

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I'm just curious where locally this warmth would be considered impressive? Using BDL as the proxy for our small state, including today, the monthly departure is up to +0.9, number of 90 degree days is now at 4 (normal for the whole month is 4.0), and as I mentioned earlier below normal on warm muggy nights. In terms of extremes the high for the month is 93 which ties it for 50th hottest August monthly high temperature out of 110 Augusts. Also 2 of the 3 days reached 90+ for what amounts to maybe an hour or two combined while heat indices have been pretty tame (mostly low-90s). You know the heat isn't impressive when OKX can't even issue heat advisories with their special watered down criteria for the 5 boroughs.

4 days in a row of 90+ is somewhat impressive when the average for the entire month is 4. It's not earth shattering but noticeable given the relative lack of heat we have experienced this year overall. There was some indications on some modeling of perhaps 6-7 days in a row which is certainly a bit more uncommon by mid/ late August and would have been noteworthy if it had occurred.

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4 days in a row of 90+ is somewhat impressive when the average for the entire month is 4. It's not earth shattering but noticeable given the relative lack of heat we have experienced this year overall. There was some indications on some modeling of perhaps 6-7 days in a row which is certainly a bit more uncommon by mid/ late August and would have been noteworthy if it had occurred.

 

Any idea what BDL did in August of 2002 and July of 1994?  Those were both 8 day heat waves in Boston, so you have to think BDL had at least that many.

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I honestly bought into a couple of days of really hot model runs hook,line, and sinker when putting out my 10 days out of 30 90+ at BDL call. BDL will get 4 tommorrow but Wedesday looks touchy at best. The weeklies and ensembles have a transient /overall slightly to perhaps moderately AN at times look along with a few decent troughs for good measure. Without getting the heat to last through this week I am skeptical of my 10 day 90+ call. 7 days may be more realistic.

Wed will be 5..Then the humidity gets so high that temps will have trouble getting there thru the weekend. I like my 7-8 days call by end of warm season

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