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August 2015 Pattern and Disco


Ginx snewx

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Today should be day 2 of what could be a 4-5 day heatwave here in the DV. 92.2 for the high yesterday. Toasty times.

 

I guess I shouldn't complain of my 82.3* high.  My ZFP is calling for tomorrow to be the hottest day (upper 80's) with mid-80's.  Down to the still hot low-80's Wednesday and beyond.  Hopefully those will tickle downward.

 

62/62, lots of mist/fog.  Sun burning through.

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I guess I shouldn't complain of my 82.3* high. My ZFP is calling for tomorrow to be the hottest day (upper 80's) with mid-80's. Down to the still hot low-80's Wednesday and beyond. Hopefully those will tickle downward.

62/62, lots of mist/fog. Sun burning through.

It was like 84 or so where I was above 1200' lol. Must be a shelburne shawl miracle.

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I guess I shouldn't complain of my 82.3* high.  My ZFP is calling for tomorrow to be the hottest day (upper 80's) with mid-80's.  Down to the still hot low-80's Wednesday and beyond.  Hopefully those will tickle downward.

 

62/62, lots of mist/fog.  Sun burning through.

Dews will continue near or 70 most of the week into next weekend

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It was like 84 or so where I was above 1200' lol. Must be a shelburne shawl miracle.

 

The Pit is a magical place.  So many afternoons I don a shawl when the typical daily breeze kicks in. 

 

On Main St. Northampton, my car read 90* yesterday.  Other locales in the area (we don't have a station for every two residents like Tolland):

 

Ashfield had 82.7,   

Williamsburg (next to Whately and Northampton) only managed 84. 

Even Greenfield at 250' only had 87.3 (I'm usually 7* cooler than Greenfield)

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It was like 84 or so where I was above 1200' lol. Must be a shelburne shawl miracle.

lol he's usually colder than most comparable elevations in the Greens. I'll get out of work where it's 84F at 1,550ft and read a post that it only got to 79.7 at the Pit ;).

I'm only kidding MPM...siting differences and evapotranspiration.

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lol he's usually colder than most comparable elevations in the Greens. I'll get out of work where it's 84F at 1,550ft and read a post that it only got to 79.7 at the Pit ;).

I'm only kidding MPM...siting differences and evapotranspiration.

Warm here by the kenebec, but not too bad. Looks like the Pit got to 82.6. Tomorrow will be the day gor the heat.

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Yeah ...seasonal change bullying it's way into the extended range Euro.  Clearly premature; and, good luck separating it's obsessive compulsion to bore out SE Canadian/OV heights from that - seems to be super-imposing biases there to elevate it's stellar long range standing to ever more terrifyingly wrong levels... 

 

Don't worry - it's out there... And, with warm ENSO climo for early cold snaps working in tandem with multi-decadal collapse of the EPO-NAO arc, the concurrence of these disparate sources tip odds in favor of no haste at some point in time. I just don't see August 25th as being that time... 

 

U.S. -based teleconnectors appear to have reached their apex uselessness typical for summer season.  One way to clue that; the 240 hour ensembles are split with 1/2 indicating ridging into the OV, and the other troughing...  None of the trough camp see anything like the Euro 516dm polar gyre carving into the NW Territories though... And why would they.  Anyway, the mean of the spread puts out index values (after EOFs) that mask the inherent uncertainty.  

 

Interestingly the GFS operational seems to hint at seasonal bullying too, despite the huge ridge signal it has in the extended lurking S of the 50th parallel..  What it does is ops to keep the ridge in play, while lowering heights to near winter levels up over N James Bay and such... That creates unusually strong westerly/jet structures just N of the border.... perhaps an early homage to what's in store when truer southward seasonal migration of hemispheric height reduction kisses that inferno in the Pacific... 

 

I'm wondering if a "west-based" warm ENSO might correlate with Pineapple Express - should that study ever happen. It's a snap supposition. The last PE that was more clearly a true Hawaii --> California fire hose was way back in 1982... 1997's above median strength warm ENSO did not seem to create that pipe-line as proficiently ... and the defining difference between the two strong NINO events was that one was biased in the 4 and 3.4 districts, and while the latter was weighted closer to the Americas. 

 

Buuut, 2 examples comes along with a HUGE statistical significance, I know - 

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