August 2015 Pattern and Disco

[CoastalWx]

It's interesting though ...that's really more of a vestigial feature than a warm front born of baroclinic differentials.   

 

General reader:  commonly referred to as "shear axis,"  these are sort of left over axis of different air movement, where the air on either side of said axis is homogenized(ing) and becoming the same.   They are interesting though in that they can wall off the hotter, tropical side when they pivot W-E like this one is currently modeled to do in the GFS and to varying degree/obviousness in the others. But, there is a sliver of continental fart that does razor into NW NE and as that settles thru on the N side of the shear axis, we get that low end heat-wave criteria air ... circa Sunday through Tuesday.

 

That part of the middle range has always been more clear, and not just because it is nearer in time - duh.  Afterward, there is a unanimous tendency for a much more pronounced subtropical/continental/WAR type ridge expression, but it's still too far out in time to count on much accuracy in the assessment of what that will mean to the dailies.  We've seen expressions intimating punishing 100 F type record heat, as much as mere mid to upper 80s with rich DPs, depending upon what permutations are in the flow that modulate and off-set this and that, what model and what model cycle...  Lot's of continuity issues there across the board.

 

The sun is still hot... but, not as such as it was on July 1. There has been triple digit heat into September to exemplify that, but in all of these/those late season events, things were nearly ideal - they had to be.  If the D9 Euro set-up transpired, than the detail of the 850mb temperature spread is probably even a tick or two higher, and that's the hottest of this summer slam dunk... But I don't have any faith in any such details, particularly when it comes to seeking ideal scenarios on a D9 chart.  

 

Just imo - 

 

Yeah overall I am not saying crapy wx. But you get higher dews involved, and it may cause an unexpected damper on plans. The more I look at it, the more I think it could be a steam bath of south winds. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah overall I am not saying crapy wx. But you get higher dews involved, and it may cause an unexpected damper on plans. The more I look at it, the more I think it could be a steam bath of south winds.

Ssshh.. It's no dews over low-mid 60's.. And the descent begins Wed

[CoastalWx]

Ssshh.. It's no dews over low-mid 60's.. And the descent begins Wed

 

Well the GFS doesn't agree, but it wouldn't shock me if this is more of an EC look of moist S winds. Not super hot, but classic late summer soup. Just a guess.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well the GFS doesn't agree, but it wouldn't shock me if this is more of an EC look of moist S winds. Not super hot, but classic late summer soup. Just a guess.

I know you know, but that's been my thinking. Just tons of high dew days with 85-90 and a few really scorching days near 95 mixed in. But again this next 2-3 week period IMO will be remembered for the humidity and not so much the heat

[Typhoon Tip]

mm.  the 12z GFS backs off significantly wrt to the secondary ridge building later next week....  Continuity re that feature and its rams has been in surplus -

[CoastalWx]

mm.  the 12z GFS backs off significantly wrt to the secondary ridge building later next week....  Continuity re that feature and its rams has been in surplus -

 

Yeah, the GFS may fail big time with that. Its op run was the most aggressive out of any model.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, the GFS may fail big time with that. Its op run was the most aggressive out of any model.

 

you know what it all kind of smacks of ...?

 

I know it's not likely true -- not a fly on the modeling depo.'s wall. But it seems like some kind of seasonal persistence is somehow entered integrated into the algorithms.  It's used as a of kind of 'base-line' state, where in the absence of stronger physical presence(s), the model 'runs home to mommy' - so to speak. 

 

It just seems like there hasn't been a late middle range or extended range model depiction this year that hasn't seemingly ...fabricated a reason to dent/buckle/dig into eastern ridging.  Which, let's face it, it's worked out, if however specious it is in how they get there. We've been blessed with temperate heights much of the time.  

 

Interesting.  If this WAR or WAR-like episode/saga ends up verifying though, any such "correction scheme" (if true) would be proven kind of stupid.  I guess if you are in persistence, they work in a round-about way...  But during pattern change, heh.   I dunno -

[forkyfork]

some mild downs mixed in but it will be toasty for a while

[Typhoon Tip]

some mild downs mixed in but it will be toasty for a while

 

 

Heh, let's lock that pattern in for the entire winter and send the PNA/ENSO arrogance home with a nasty taste of less self-worth -

[SnowMan]

What are the chances for thunderstorms tomorrow?

[CoastalWx]

some mild downs mixed in but it will be toasty for a while

So much for strong niño analogs. This reminds me of the summer doldrums of 02, 04, etc.

[CoastalWx]

you know what it all kind of smacks of ...?

I know it's not likely true -- not a fly on the modeling depo.'s wall. But it seems like some kind of seasonal persistence is somehow entered integrated into the algorithms. It's used as a of kind of 'base-line' state, where in the absence of stronger physical presence(s), the model 'runs home to mommy' - so to speak.

It just seems like there hasn't been a late middle range or extended range model depiction this year that hasn't seemingly ...fabricated a reason to dent/buckle/dig into eastern ridging. Which, let's face it, it's worked out, if however specious it is in how they get there. We've been blessed with temperate heights much of the time.

Interesting. If this WAR or WAR-like episode/saga ends up verifying though, any such "correction scheme" (if true) would be proven kind of stupid. I guess if you are in persistence, they work in a round-about way... But during pattern change, heh. I dunno -

I have noticed the models have been in flux with those tropical systems way out in the WPAC, but that is like beyond day 10. Usually that's because of the models handling any CCKW/MJO. You know, like in those horrible winter years when the cold is "always" 10 days away, and then once the model starts realizing tropical forcing is in the IO with a massive AK vortex, no soup for you.

[Brian5671]

So much for strong niño analogs. This reminds me of the summer doldrums of 02, 04, etc.

you had me at 02.   Sign me up for that fall and winter please

[Damage In Tolland]

So much for strong niño analogs. This reminds me of the summer doldrums of 02, 04, etc.

This niño has gone against every "supposed typical nino"

Instead of a cool summer we end up AN ,instead of a cool Aug we end up with an absolute steam bath that ends +2 at most places..and instead of an active convective season we end up with the worst one in 50 years minus one event in RI

Maybe the winter will go against what is "supposed " to happen and surprise us all with a good one

[Damage In Tolland]

 

 

 

Interesting pattern setting up across the Northern Hemisphere. Latest guidance gets

two typhoons stuck under a strong ridge in Eastern Asia instead of recurving.

So it looks like the strong ridge over that area will favor a ridge staying put south of

Alaska and right along the East Coast into the long range with warmth continuing

here in the means.

 

 

 

Cool Pretty cool but just a torch yawner with no storms. Lawns and flora really gonna torch these next 10 days with all the storms staying over NNE

[dendrite]

I absolutely loathe these patterns in late Aug. Close the shades and just keep the A/C on. Doldrums FTL.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I absolutely loathe these patterns in late Aug. Close the shades and just keep the A/C on. Doldrums FTL.

Yup. This would have been nice a month ago when I was on vacation. Not when you are getting ready to turn the page away from summer

[Damage In Tolland]

Well everyone enjoyed their COC Ks weather that we had here and there. Now when it's supposed to be cooling down and folks want fall to kick in for early Septber we are left with deep deep deep summer. I'll take this thru Aug, but come Sept it's not wanted unless it's accompanied by some sort of Labor Day derecho part deux. We warned to be careful what you wished for

[weathafella]

Well everyone enjoyed their COC Ks weather that we had here and there. Now when it's supposed to be cooling down and folks want fall to kick in for early Septber we are left with deep deep deep summer. I'll take this thru Aug, but come Sept it's not wanted unless it's accompanied by some sort of Labor Day derecho part deux. We warned to be careful what you wished for

I want it warm in September...always have. Don't want to start things too early. I'm ok with a mild October too.

[Damage In Tolland]

I want it warm in September...always have. Don't want to start things too early. I'm ok with a mild October too.

Come Sept. I turn the page. Especially as we go deeper into the month. Nothing worse than those years where you look outside and it's still mostly green leaves on Sept. 20. I know that is what we're facing this year with one of those endless summers, but certainly by Oct I'm ready for chill, frost , first flakes, football and Yankee playoff baseball. Seasons in seasons

[weathafella]

Come Sept. I turn the page. Especially as we go deeper into the month. Nothing worse than those years where you look outside and it's still mostly green leaves on Sept. 20. I know that is what we're facing this year with one of those endless summers, but certainly by Oct I'm ready for chill, frost , first flakes, football and Yankee playoff baseball. Seasons in seasons

Sept is almost summer to me...akin to march and winter. October is nice for frosty nights but realistic first flakes are typical in November.

[Damage In Tolland]

Unless BDL manages a rogue shower they will start Day 1 of heatwave today. Already 85. Up 6 degrees in the last hour

[Typhoon Tip]

... Four cycles and counting, though, of GFS muting the WAR appeal quite a bit... 

 

Even the Euro and GGEM looking more "dented" along the 40th parallel on the 00z -- are they catching on?

 

Or is it like Scott intimated above, that handling tropical features/forcing over the west Pac is just playing havoc with matters. 

Time will tell - 

[eekuasepinniW]

I absolutely loathe these patterns in late Aug. Close the shades and just keep the A/C on. Doldrums FTL.

Quiet.

[dendrite]

Quiet.

http://www.travelmath.com/flying-time/from/LCI/to/EYW

[Damage In Tolland]

BDL may have tickled 90 off hour

[powderfreak]

BDL may have tickled 90 off hour

 

Looks like a high of at least 91F. 

[Nittany88]

I want it warm in September...always have. Don't want to start things too early. I'm ok with a mild October too.

 

Yeah an above normal fall is fantastic. Usually means a lot of 70s and sunshine instead of strato-cu and 50s.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like a high of at least 91F.

Could be 5+ days in a row . That would be really really impressive

[CT Valley Snowman]

Could be 5+ days in a row . That would be really really impressive

92 here. Car thermo tickled 93 on the highway earlier just south of where the first afternoon storms popped up near Springfield.