CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 None of them have a cool HP building in from E canada. All show above normal..so the idea of a cool pattern mid week seems preposterous What? I am talking about a front hung up south of us. GEFS argue cooler but probably near normal. EC is E-SE flow and ocnl showrs. You haven looked at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 What? I am talking about a front hung up south of us. GEFS argue cooler but probably near normal. EC is E-SE flow and ocnl showrs. You haven looked at anything. The mornings GEFS and EURO ENS showed Well AN days 6-10 and AN 11-15..I'm basing it off of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 The mornings GEFS and EURO ENS showed Well AN days 6-10 and AN 11-15..I'm basing it off of that. Iḿ not talking about temps, I am talking about sensible wx. Temps will follow the sensible wx. The 00z runs also showed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 Iḿ not talking about temps, I am talking about sensible wx. Temps will follow the sensible wx. The 00z runs also showed this. There's the problem, stop being sensible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Nice take on what should happen next week from ALB..That ridge means biz THERE ARE HINTS OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THAT COULD CONTINUE THE 90 DEGREE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGIONWELL INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THEMID 60S TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK ANDINTO NEXT WEEKEND OF A RETURN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICHWOULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST...IF NOT THEHOTTEST...TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Hereś a great take from NWS Las Vegas. That should really translate east. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDVEF&wfo=VEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Nice take on what should happen next week from ALB..That ridge means biz THERE ARE HINTS OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THAT COULD CONTINUE THE 90 DEGREE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND OF A RETURN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST...IF NOT THE HOTTEST...TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Glad we don't live there. We have now moved onto the Hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Heh, I've seen more aggression on the colder side of heights with the Euro frankly - more so than "heat". It may in fact be the case that it's equal with both, ...just sayin' that's not what I've noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Yeah because if it's hot in ALB . That means cool, wet and troughy with a front down to DC in NE. The front would magically penetrate the massive upper level ridging but only in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 it's been doing this at that range for a long time... Just think of the bonanza of late middle and extended range stem-wound cyclones it will have come cold season - and the chirpy gaiety in the post flavor that seems to take place as a direct result of it every twelve hours... Yet, it may be a month before anything really happens between times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 The NWS in Shanghai are tracking a burgeoning heatwave. Looks like it they have a good take on it. http://en.weather.com.cn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Cool, wet troighing from E. Canada is coming next week. Any heat and humidity has been shoved to DC . OP runs Save the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 #Opruns4eva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 #icantreadamodel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Gee Kev' ...surprised you didn't lube up this thread over the 18z GFS... 150 thru to 360 hours, over 588 dm H the entire time... 'Magine if that happened in early July? Sun's still hot enough to do a lot of damage, but that's impressive either way... Yeeeup, better hang our hats on this run - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Nice cool shot on the 456hr CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 # of 90 degree days at BDL over the next 30 days?. I'm going with 10. I would take the under on that one. BDL has 110 summers in the climo record books, and from 8/16 through the end of the year, these are the top years by number of 90+ days: 1. 13 - 1983 2. 9 - 1973 2. 9 - 1953 4. 8 - 2010 4. 8 - 1961 6. 7 - 1937 7. 6 - 2009 7. 6 - 2002 7. 6 - 1991 7. 6 - 1959 7. 6 - 1948 This should give pause to anyone predicting a prolonged heat wave this late in the season even at a torch spot like BDL given that just getting more than 5 days of 90+ from 8/16 onwards is about a once a decade occurrence, never mind getting them to run consecutively in a long heat wave. Normal at BDL is 2.8 days of 90+ from 8/16-12/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 BDL has a good shot at 4 Sat-Tue. I'll go 7 of 90+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 BDL has a good shot at 4 Sat-Tue. I'll go 7 of 90+.7-8 is reasonable . Unless one was following op runs or something similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 I managed to sneak exclusive rendering of the damage in Tolland this coming fall thanks to the drought and fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 I would take the under on that one. BDL has 110 summers in the climo record books, and from 8/16 through the end of the year, these are the top years by number of 90+ days: 1. 13 - 1983 2. 9 - 1973 2. 9 - 1953 4. 8 - 2010 4. 8 - 1961 6. 7 - 1937 7. 6 - 2009 7. 6 - 2002 7. 6 - 1991 7. 6 - 1959 7. 6 - 1948 This should give pause to anyone predicting a prolonged heat wave this late in the season even at a torch spot like BDL given that just getting more than 5 days of 90+ from 8/16 onwards is about a once a decade occurrence, never mind getting them to run consecutively in a long heat wave. Normal at BDL is 2.8 days of 90+ from 8/16-12/31. 6 out of the next 10 starting today because my post was written yesterday. 8/16-18, and 8/21-23 all look promising. If I get to 6 in 10, I feel that getting 4 out of 20 is feasible given the pattern. We roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 6Z GFS certainty doesn't agree with my bold proclamation, breaking down the ridge aggressively later next week and pushing the greatest heat anomalies into the North Central US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Enjoy the heat folks, it's August, not unexpected. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Not much of any cool down on the Euro right thru day 10. Maybe Wed next week stays in the 80's at BDL. Other than that..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Still a little concerned there could be some showers later next week if that WF hangs around with SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Still a little concerned there could be some showers later next week if that WF hangs around with SE winds. Wouldn't they be bangers and not light showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 14, 2015 Author Share Posted August 14, 2015 7-8 is reasonable . Unless one was following op runs or something similar I will say 5 and under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Still a little concerned there could be some showers later next week if that WF hangs around with SE winds. It's interesting though ...that's really more of a vestigial feature than a warm front born of baroclinic differentials. General reader: commonly referred to as "shear axis," these are sort of left over axis of different air movement, where the air on either side of said axis is homogenized(ing) and becoming the same. They are interesting though in that they can wall off the hotter, tropical side when they pivot W-E like this one is currently modeled to do in the GFS and to varying degree/obviousness in the others. But, there is a sliver of continental fart that does razor into NW NE and as that settles thru on the N side of the shear axis, we get that low end heat-wave criteria air ... circa Sunday through Tuesday. That part of the middle range has always been more clear, and not just because it is nearer in time - duh. Afterward, there is a unanimous tendency for a much more pronounced subtropical/continental/WAR type ridge expression, but it's still too far out in time to count on much accuracy in the assessment of what that will mean to the dailies. We've seen expressions intimating punishing 100 F type record heat, as much as mere mid to upper 80s with rich DPs, depending upon what permutations are in the flow that modulate and off-set this and that, what model and what model cycle... Lot's of continuity issues there across the board. The sun is still hot... but, not as such as it was on July 1. There has been triple digit heat into September to exemplify that, but in all of these/those late season events, things were nearly ideal - they had to be. If the D9 Euro set-up transpired, than the detail of the 850mb temperature spread is probably even a tick or two higher, and that's the hottest of this summer slam dunk... But I don't have any faith in any such details, particularly when it comes to seeking ideal scenarios on a D9 chart. Just imo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Kudos to Jerry - ? ...seems destined to be warranted. PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL BE AROUND THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES... ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE SFC/UPPER HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... AND SOUTHERN AZ/NM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SURROUNDING AREAS DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE IN THE WEST WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER HIGH AND CORRESPONDINGLY RISE IN THE EAST AS THE 594 DM ISOHEIGHT ATTEMPTS TO FORM.FRACASSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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