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August 2015 Pattern and Disco


Ginx snewx

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All aside ...  how about this cold pattern we are supposedly in... ?

 

Sorry - most mid range/extended runs back when they counted on this, have busted.  ...Or will so, anyway.  Most machine MOS' at or above climo now through the weekend, then, ...we may enter a heat wave as all that gets cooking. 

 

Nice way to run a cool pattern.  heh

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All aside ... how about this cold pattern we are supposedly in... ?

Sorry - most mid range/extended runs back when they counted on this, have busted. ...Or will so, anyway. Most machine MOS' at or above climo now through the weekend, then, ...we may enter a heat wave as all that gets cooking.

Nice way to run a cool pattern. heh

6 of the last 7 days at BDL and coops surronding me have been below normal. Don't remember a single post calling for cold. Perhaps a Freudian slip on your part. Ya know.
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6 of the last 7 days at BDL and coops surronding me have been below normal. Don't remember a single post calling for cold. Perhaps a Freudian slip on your part. Ya know.

I'm not sure what you're talking about I clearly said the model, Steve. Besides you said one site BDL; what about everywhere else? there's no way it' it was as cool as the model said/synoptically insinuated. They busted

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Euro op cools it off after a hot Sun-Tue, but it looks like it'd get warm again post d10. EPS looks warmer. Like most have been saying....looks like a decently AN end of Aug, but we'll still get our occasional cool downs. We won't pull off 15 straight days of +10.

 

I'll enjoy it while it lasts since fall will be coming quickly once we get back to a more normal regime.

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Euro op cools it off after a hot Sun-Tue, but it looks like it'd get warm again post d10. EPS looks warmer. Like most have been saying....looks like a decently AN end of Aug, but we'll still get our occasional cool downs. We won't pull off 15 straight days of +10.

 

I'll enjoy it while it lasts since fall will be coming quickly once we get back to a more normal regime.

Pretty impressive next 15 days of Well AN. Hopefully Sept isn't endless summer..but I have  feeling it will be

 

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I'm glad I'll be escaping next week's 80's.  Heading to Bar Harbor for a couple.

 

Enjoy the fog.  Won't do much for the views from Cadillac, but adds atmosphere to the woods and the shoreline.

 

 

We won't pull off 15 straight days of +10.

 

Kinda hyperbolic.  I'd guess such a streak has never been recorded during met summer anywhere in the Northeast.

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Enjoy the fog.  Won't do much for the views from Cadillac, but adds atmosphere to the woods and the shoreline.

 

 

We won't pull off 15 straight days of +10.

 

Kinda hyperbolic.  I'd guess such a streak has never been recorded during met summer anywhere in the Northeast.

There was definite hyperbole, but a certain poster here probably expects it. I meant to say avg +10 over a 15 day stretch too, but it was hyperbolic nonetheless.

 

The first 15 days of Aug '88 were probably close to averaging +10F for most spots.

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Folks ...look, the models are just oscillating with regard to extremeness, within an overall, common theme for the arrival of a new warm/warmer than normal pattern.   

 

Every time they oscillates toward less, i.e., the 00z Euro ... I mean, it's a single run guys.  The same philosophy regarding 'continuity,' and 'model stochastics during pattern changes...,'  all that, still needs to be applied. I don't see any reason why the "panache" of the pattern does come back in this next 12z cycle, just the same. It may not, fine... 

 

Which by the way, regardless of the teleconnectors.. The overall look of this ensuing negative PNAP pattern (with tendency for lowering heights to migrate through 110 to 130 W ... and consequential tendencies to fill the semi-permanent eastern trough) that is all intrinsically a pattern change.  I just haven't heard anyone in official and non-official circuits actually refer to it as such.

 

I think it important not to get bogged down in run to run permutations on amplitude when assessing matters.  Leave that up to the dailies... 

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All of CT Headed back into drought AWT and As we feared..ugh

 

 

U.S. Drought Monitor Northeast
20150811_northeast_none.png

 

 

 

In New England it always balances out...there are no droughts, just dry periods...just like earlier this year.

 

Before long, you will be complaining of too much water around.

 

This is a normal, typical summer in southern New England.

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In New England it always balances out...there are no droughts, just dry periods...just like earlier this year.

 

Before long, you will be complaining of too much water around.

 

This is a normal, typical summer in southern New England.

Thats the absolute worst web site out there, dry is not drought. This is the Palmer index which shows reality when talking drought and that doesn't include the heavy rains of this week.

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This is not even close to my area last year. Ponds, rivers, streams were all drying up. This year, looks normal.

Youve had quite a bit more rain than CT save for Ginx area. That map doesn't show your area as abnormally dry. We have really been hosed in much of the state since late June. I'm not saying it's a drought but 2-3 weeks of no rain and heat upcoming could certainly put us there
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Youve had quite a bit more rain than CT save for Ginx area. That map doesn't show your area as abnormally dry. We have really been hosed in much of the state since late June. I'm not saying it's a drought but 2-3 weeks of no rain and heat upcoming could certainly put us there

 

I definitely have not.

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I'm not saying it's a drought but 2-3 weeks of no rain and heat upcoming could certainly put us there

You've got an interesting definition of drought if a dry 2-3 weeks will put you there in a location that probably averages what 40-50" of precip annually? Gasp, a dry few weeks in the summer in New England.

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