powderfreak Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Just going off gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 24-36" forecast as the event was starting turned into 6" here in Dobbs Ferry LOL. 'Nothing funny about that one. Was a real shot to the gut in Croton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 could we be losing next week's system too? the gfs is pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Wonder if OKX ever recovered from that. Just completely bought euro hook, line, and sinker. Oops. Not to pile on but that was one of the worst forecasts I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 24-36" forecast as the event was starting turned into 6" here in Dobbs Ferry LOL. My foothills area was forecast for 8-12" and got a windblown 20" of 9:1 sugar. Of course, all I got to do was wade thru it as we returned home from SNJ, where we had watched a 12-16" forecast verify at 1.5". (3rd of 4 warned events last snow season that verified at 1/8 of the low end of forecast range.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Not to pile on but that was one of the worst forecasts I've ever seen.nah Snotober, ground too warm was worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 nah Snotober, ground too warm was worse I feel like NWS was pretty bullish in October 2011...it was the media outlets that were very timid on going big snow. Maybe OKX was low in that storm...but I recall BOX going all-in on big snow at least 36 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 I feel like NWS was pretty bullish in October 2011...it was the media outlets that were very timid on going big snow. Maybe OKX was low in that storm...but I recall BOX going all-in on big snow at least 36 hours before the event. OKX's forecast was horrific. BOX did better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 nah Snotober, ground too warm was worse Yeah - possibly. I think the 24-36" forecast for Manhattan was so outrageous it's hard to beat for worst forecast fail. I don't know this for a fact but I really think there was some kind of pressure to keep the forecast high as a "worst case scenario" as opposed to forecasting the most likely outcome. Better to bust way high and deal with the fallout than forecast too low and have to deal with screaming politicians and others when they were unprepared. Personally - I think that line of reasoning for going with an extreme forecast makes us all look bad, hurts the profession, and is a really unfortunate way of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 I feel like NWS was pretty bullish in October 2011...it was the media outlets that were very timid on going big snow. Maybe OKX was low in that storm...but I recall BOX going all-in on big snow at least 36 hours before the event. Yea that morning when Goodman at OKX came in and rewrote what was the worst AFD I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Yeah - possibly. I think the 24-36" forecast for Manhattan was so outrageous it's hard to beat for worst forecast fail. I don't know this for a fact but I really think there was some kind of pressure to keep the forecast high as a "worst case scenario" as opposed to forecasting the most likely outcome. Better to bust way high and deal with the fallout than forecast too low and have to deal with screaming politicians and others when they were unprepared. Personally - I think that line of reasoning for going with an extreme forecast makes us all look bad, hurts the profession, and is a really unfortunate way of forecasting. If I remember right, they went high, dropped a little then went high again, disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Yeah - possibly. I think the 24-36" forecast for Manhattan was so outrageous it's hard to beat for worst forecast fail. I don't know this for a fact but I really think there was some kind of pressure to keep the forecast high as a "worst case scenario" as opposed to forecasting the most likely outcome. Better to bust way high and deal with the fallout than forecast too low and have to deal with screaming politicians and others when they were unprepared. Personally - I think that line of reasoning for going with an extreme forecast makes us all look bad, hurts the profession, and is a really unfortunate way of forecasting. It seems like a silly line of reasoning, especially when you probably won't get much grief if you forecast 1-2 feet but end up with 27". The forecast could have easily been bumped down to 1-2 feet...it's not like they were deciding on whether to go from 18" to 5"...which from an impact standpoint is probably a larger adjustment. The Euro had been doing well earlier in the winter, esp with the Pre-Thanksgiving storm when it nailed the tucked-in track...but man, it just had no support by the time we got to 24 hours out in the Jan blizzard. The mesoscale models like the RGEM that you typically want to see agreeing with it were way east. At any rate, lessons learned hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Lol please don't remind me of that Blizzard. My part of Brooklyn received 13 inches and only because a band set up right over us before the storm pulled away, if not we probably have gotten about 9 inches or less. Central Park's 9.8 inches i believe was a bit too low because surrounding areas to the park measured about a foot as well. Also alot of our accumulations was because of a death band that set up over the city at the beginning stages of the storm. I could only imagine how much we would have gotten if that never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 That storm was almost a whiff here with 6.5" compared to expectations. It was being hailed as the biblical blizzard to end all blizzards, and it seemed that no one wanted to back down from that characterization even as models were slipping east. Last year's biggest snowfall here was 9", and we still racked up 55". Definitely the winter of the moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Yea that morning when Goodman at OKX came in and rewrote what was the worst AFD I have ever seen. 09Z SREF...12Z GEFS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE INCLUDED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST EXCEPT FOR ALL ETA MEMBERS OF THE SREF WERE DISCOUNTED AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. PTYPE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IS THE MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE...THUS THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAILS. HERE'S MY THINKING... 1. THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT WHERE SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW HAS NEVER BEEN OBSERVED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN PER THE 1ST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS. EVEN INLAND...SCANS OF THE COOP DATA SHOWS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF. 2. MOST PCPN IS IN THE AFTN AND SOLAR RADIATION WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. 3. LASTLY...I COULD NOT FIND SUPPORT OF SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW FREEZING IN ANY OF THE PROFILES I EXAMINED. THUS...IN COLLABORATION WITH HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK AND SURROUNDING WFO'S...WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER INLAND ELEVATION AND ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLUSHY TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE COAST - MOST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE AT LEAST 500' IF NOT 1000' SAT AFTN. ONCE THE SUN SETS THOUGH...ACCUMULATION IN THE EVENING IS LIKELY FOR THE INLAND ROADWAYS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. NO ROADWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND NYC. IMPACT TO TREES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS DECIDUOUS TREES MAY EASILY SHED REMAINING LEAVES. THUS THE WEIGHT ON TREES MAY NOT BE AS BIG A PROBLEMS AS ONE MIGHT SPECULATE AS IT'S PAST PEAK COLOR FOR INLAND AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 09Z SREF...12Z GEFS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE INCLUDED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST EXCEPT FOR ALL ETA MEMBERS OF THE SREF WERE DISCOUNTED AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. PTYPE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IS THE MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE...THUS THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAILS. HERE'S MY THINKING... 1. THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT WHERE SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW HAS NEVER BEEN OBSERVED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN PER THE 1ST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS. EVEN INLAND...SCANS OF THE COOP DATA SHOWS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF. 2. MOST PCPN IS IN THE AFTN AND SOLAR RADIATION WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. 3. LASTLY...I COULD NOT FIND SUPPORT OF SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW FREEZING IN ANY OF THE PROFILES I EXAMINED. THUS...IN COLLABORATION WITH HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK AND SURROUNDING WFO'S...WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER INLAND ELEVATION AND ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLUSHY TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE COAST - MOST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE AT LEAST 500' IF NOT 1000' SAT AFTN. ONCE THE SUN SETS THOUGH...ACCUMULATION IN THE EVENING IS LIKELY FOR THE INLAND ROADWAYS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. NO ROADWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND NYC. IMPACT TO TREES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS DECIDUOUS TREES MAY EASILY SHED REMAINING LEAVES. THUS THE WEIGHT ON TREES MAY NOT BE AS BIG A PROBLEMS AS ONE MIGHT SPECULATE AS IT'S PAST PEAK COLOR FOR INLAND AREAS. I think I got 27" in that....maybe 24". Pete and I were posting pictures of 5" of snow on the ground at 3:00p.m. or so with whiteout conditions. It beat the crap out of anything in last year's mundane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Kevin, the 12z Euro had dews reaching into the 70's as far North as Boston on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 An all timer in the wrong direction for sure. I still haven't recovered from losing three storms in the last 72 hrs last winter, but if I had to suffer the way y'all did with that storm I probably would have jumped from the Brooklyn bridge lol. Jesus. Honestly, after a good 5 days I got over it. Mostly everyone in the thread was typing "toss the GFS". Euro is lord under 72 hrs. So obviously I bought the Euro's solution(bad choice). All in all, lesson learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 wow... spun this thread right off it's rails! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Kevin, the 12z Euro had dews reaching into the 70's as far North as Boston on Tuesday.Kind of what many here discussed of a mild down end of this week and then a mostly Dewey rest of month with a break now and again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Kind of what many here discussed of a mild down end of this week and then a mostly Dewey rest of month with a break now and again.. Like one high dew day than troughiness and offshore flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Coastal threat this weekend completely dead now....GOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Like one high dew day than troughiness and offshore flow? yea I mean speaking of off the rails.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Coastal threat this weekend completely dead now....GOOD The writing for that was on the wall. Though nothing's verified yet, so can't really foist any trophies in the matter ... there are erstwhile seasonal trends that argued against, ...climo (which I hate, because that doesn't include anomalies, but you know what I mean), along with having to compensate for native model biases for amplitude.. Also, the NAO is one correlating mass field that's more coherent for the Lakes, OV/MA/NE regions at this time of year, and it's been rising and going positive for days worth of computations. Positive NAO don't tend to like coastal lows... etc etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 yea I mean speaking of off the rails.... I mean I think he's running a version of the KFS in his high dew dream world. No one could possibly look at anything today and say (besides Tuesday) this looks like a high dew pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Kind of what many here discussed of a mild down end of this week and then a mostly Dewey rest of month with a break now and again.. Mild down from your high of 76 ? which is -5 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Again this is talking about the wx and not what a model spits out. You got burned on that this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Again this is talking about the wx and not what a model spits out. You got burned on that this weekend Wouldn't say burned - but yeah the forecast has been a bit of a mess. Have mentioned the uncertainty from day 1 - that's all you can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 One of the best storms of my life once I heard the first couple braches snap I knew it was going to be epic I would do anything for a storm like that again the craziest part was when a branch was on fire and a wire was shooting sparks I called 911 and they said there was nothing they could do about it I was in aww I think I got 27" in that....maybe 24". Pete and I were posting pictures of 5" of snow on the ground at 3:00p.m. or so with whiteout conditions. It beat the crap out of anything in last year's mundane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Lol please don't remind me of that Blizzard. My part of Brooklyn received 13 inches and only because a band set up right over us before the storm pulled away, if not we probably have gotten about 9 inches or less. Central Park's 9.8 inches i believe was a bit too low because surrounding areas to the park measured about a foot as well. Also alot of our accumulations was because of a death band that set up over the city at the beginning stages of the storm. I could only imagine how much we would have gotten if that never happened.Are you really complaining about getting 13"? My forecast was for 24-36" and I didn't even get a dusting. It snowed for about ten minutes around 11pm that night and it was already obvious the storm was a fail at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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