CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 It's kind of like a major snow storm forecast should be worded like: "snow ...increasing in intensity for everyone and a general 10" should be expected, followed by 6 hours of shredding where a few people in unknown bands will get another 6" . Total accumulations thus 10 to 16 inches." something like that. Pretty sure they do that anyway, just sayin' But that storm had 2'+ from ORH to CC and MVY. Not always easy to do. Jan 2005 last storm to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 But that storm had 2'+ from ORH to CC and MVY. Not always easy to do. Jan 2005 last storm to do that? I meant that as in general... I don't recall the specifics re that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 So...think it's safe to say the general outlook in here has switched towards the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I meant that as in general... I don't recall the specifics re that event. I wasn't trying to argue..just pointing out it actually worked out to be fairly widespread. Actually funny you mention this....I went through the thread for that last night. Areas near BOS and SE MA had good banding regenerate in the aftn. That helped make this such a widespread event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I've definitely developed a banding fetish though...half the fun for me is just trying to figure it out. It's a refreshing throw back to good ole fashioned meteorology. I mean who would have thought....placement of H7 and H5 features matter!! You mean simulated radar isn't the answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I've definitely developed a banding fetish though...half the fun for me is just trying to figure it out. It's a refreshing throw back to good ole fashioned meteorology. I mean who would have thought....placement of H7 and H5 features matter!! You mean simulated radar isn't the answer? I usually just look at the hi res ARW model and take that verbatim before a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I usually just look at the hi res ARW model and take that verbatim before a snowstorm. If you combine the RPM, ARW, and NMM from SREFs...it's pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 If you combine the RPM, ARW, and NMM from SREFs...it's pretty much a lock. Congrats Ottawa for Feb 7-9, 2015 storm....remember that? Like 36-48 hours before the storm, it had the best snows north of powderfreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Congrats Ottawa for Feb 7-9, 2015 storm....remember that? Like 36-48 hours before the storm, it had the best snows north of powderfreak. Yeah lol. I wonder what a juiced STJ will do to those models this year. Probably take a low near Hatteras and have it track over State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Yeah lol. I wonder what a juiced STJ will do to those models this year. Probably take a low near Hatteras and have it track over State College. A Nov '50 every other run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 So...think it's safe to say the general outlook in here has switched towards the cold season. Heavy, Heavy cold season reminiscing. Fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Heavy, Heavy cold season reminiscing. Fine with me. Early autumn is pretty boring in here unless there is a TC threat. We've got a rain event tonight that at least breaks up the monotany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Cold season talk is embedded in most of us, even those that relish dews and convection. It's just how we are wired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Cold season talk is embedded in most of us, even those that relish dews and convection. It's just how we are wired. Part of it too is really the excitement of tracking the models again. It's probably been 6 months since I looked at models on 4 consecutive suites (00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z all in the same day) and I doubt i'll be doing it again until November (unless an October snow threat comes along). The cold season brings the models back to relevancy. They are somewhat useful for a severe threat, but they still have more limitations than they do in the cold season...they perform the best in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Part of it too is really the excitement of tracking the models again. It's probably been 6 months since I looked at models on 4 consecutive suites (00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z all in the same day) and I doubt i'll be doing it again until November (unless an October snow threat comes along). The cold season brings the models back to relevancy. They are somewhat useful for a severe threat, but they still have more limitations than they do in the cold season...they perform the best in winter. I agree. It is nice to actually analyze models for synoptic purposes. As a side note, ended up being a raw day here. 65 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 idk...I find dew talk scintillating. I wake up in the middle of the night anxiously wondering if my Davis dew will reach 75F or only 72F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I agree. It is nice to actually analyze models for synoptic purposes. As a side note, ended up being a raw day here. 65 now. Funny how relative that is... For September climo, I don't think that is really all that "raw" , but considering the last week's weather, sure. I think it was super raw at 65 last December on Christmas Day morning, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Funny how relative that is... For September climo, I don't think that is really all that "raw" , but considering the last week's weather, sure. I think it was super raw at 65 last December on Christmas Day morning, too Haha, true. But a raw NE wind and low clouds....kind of feels like it. Throw in a little sea sent to the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Haha, true. But a raw NE wind and low clouds....kind of feels like it. Throw in a little sea sent to the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I've definitely developed a banding fetish though...half the fun for me is just trying to figure it out. It's a refreshing throw back to good ole fashioned meteorology. I mean who would have thought....placement of H7 and H5 features matter!! You mean simulated radar isn't the answer? You guys still practice that? Part of it too is really the excitement of tracking the models again. It's probably been 6 months since I looked at models on 4 consecutive suites (00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z all in the same day) and I doubt i'll be doing it again until November (unless an October snow threat comes along). The cold season brings the models back to relevancy. They are somewhat useful for a severe threat, but they still have more limitations than they do in the cold season...they perform the best in winter. I take a daily peek around now for the first hints of freezing weather. After that, I only check periodically for the first flakes and then it's game on. I like to see if some persistence shows up with the first few events...to me that gives a glimpse of things of things to come if there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Haha, true. But a raw NE wind and low clouds....kind of feels like it. Throw in a little sea sent to the air. I love that... If there is ever "beauty" to a gray misty day, it has got to be the shore in September. I lived in Rockport out on the end of Cape Ann and know first had, if one can't appreciate warm water piling up on the beaches, sodium rich air, and the whirling sound of wind around telegraph wires, you just flat out need to find a different hobby. Sorry. Some of those sheltered beaches, when the wind came ashore in October even, the last vestiges of warm SSTs would pile up in those coves and you could actually wade comfortably, even if the air was only 55 F and filled with mist. It's an interesting time of year. Somewhat unrelated, ... I read "Isaac's Storm" (Larson) years ago. Very good read for any weather enthusiast and/or Met alike.. It is a stylistic, fact-based back-story behind Isaac Cline, chief Meteorologist for the Galveston Weather Bureau back in the era leading up to the great hurricane. Anyway, there was a passage in that novel that described unusual combination of environmental elements, like the coolish N wind that freshened the morning of the disaster, and how the waves conveyed hot water in great heaps upon the beaches, that began to wash up and over causeways and beach roads. Kids frolicked and romped, in the unusual setting that seemed so inviting for fun and exuberance. There's just something similarly foreboding about that warm autumn sea, with waves curling and thundering into white water, when the air is cooling. It's an interesting time. Hard to resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I'm with you on the waves and storm tippy. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Leaves are looking leathery now...just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Leaves are looking leathery now...just sayin' The excessive dryness ...might play a role. We have a bit of early deposition going on. Some of the wet breezes today are pulling some tired greens and pal yellows down and littering the streets and yards. It's too early for legit leaf fall, so figure it's something else. There isn't a green spread of land anywhere around this part of Middlesex. If rad and models are right, ...heh, might have a second undergrowth green up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 The excessive dryness ...might play a role. We have a bit of early deposition going on. Some of the wet breezes today are pulling some tired greens and pal yellows down and littering the streets and yards. It's too early for legit leaf fall, so figure it's something else. There isn't a green spread of land anywhere around this part of Middlesex. If rad and models are right, ...heh, might have a second undergrowth green up next week. Yeah. I'm guessing the trees are a bit stressed. Swampy areas around here are changing. Lots of early dropping prob due to dry conditions. Gentle rain here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I usually just look at the hi res ARW model and take that verbatim before a snowstorm. I got 300" of ARW snow last season. Every storm was super-amped. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I got 300" of ARW snow last season. Every storm was super-amped. Lol. It's usually a good sign for SNE posters when you are pulling out ARW maps to show N VT getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Yeah. I'm guessing the trees are a bit stressed. Swampy areas around here are changing. Lots of early dropping prob due to dry conditions. Gentle rain here now Agreed on the dryness-color. I saw a lot more yellow in SNY/CNJ last week than we have in the Maine foothills. We're dry, they're droughty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 How about a foothills flattener. Last one here was Feb. 22-23, 2009, which dumped 18" in 7.5 hr, easily the longest period of 2"+/hr accum I can recall. Only the two big 1984 storms, Feb. 5-6 and March 14-15, events up north can compare, and my eletronics then did not include looking at the radar. The most classic "yellow banana" I can remember seeing on radar came on Jan. 14, 2008. It featured a classic arc running IZG-LEW-AUG and to the coast at Belfast. Only lasted 5-6 hr but folks in the middle got 12-15" of 15:1 fluff, most during those 5-6. My home was near the northern fringe and had 8" while 6 miles to my west Farmington got only 5.5", and near the Wilton line at FMH (where my wife was transported after getting rear-ended that day - she was OK) the total looked to be less than 4". Did 4/1/11 miss you to the east? I recall that being a pretty good event up in Maine. Feb 22-23, 2009 was disappointing in ORH, we had the extremely rare boundary layer issue despite 850 temps of like -3C. Hardly ever happens in February. A lot of sloppy snow that actually mixed with rain for a time. We ended up with 4-5" of almost total slush. Really weird storm to get in February at elevation. But the LLJ in the boundary layer out of the due south was so incredibly strong, that it was able to intrude even into the ORH hills and not be fully offset by both dynamical cooling and orographic upslope cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 It's usually a good sign for SNE posters when you are pulling out ARW maps to show N VT getting crushed. lol, yeah and if you have to start pulling the NMM versions you know it's going west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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