Summer Doldrums Banter

[mreaves]

Huddled by myself yes. But not my vehicle. Locked. Lock always and everywhere you go

 

 

always and always chiding Momma because she forgets

I leave mine unlocked with nothing in it. I don't want anyone to break the window to get in.

[powderfreak]

wait you chided me for my EPO love saying the last 3 years were an outlier....lol If you had the ability to combine every single storm into one collage of synoptics my bet is the darkest band would be GC to Dendrite to Jefffafa with a secondary max ISP TO ORH to Newburyport

Probably central New England like you said. On the northwest end you'll have storms like Xmas 2002, Jan 2003, December 2003 had two, Valentines 2007, Pattys Day 2007, March 2011, and actually had one in March 2014 that gave 18" to BTV.

It's been a little while up here though for a series of BGM-GFL-MPV/BTV or something like that.

[Ginx snewx]

 

 

I leave mine unlocked with nothing in it. I don't want anyone to break the window to get in.

Hmm, if the doors unlocked then they reach in, bet most don't want to make a sound. I just lock it out of habit anywways

[Ginx snewx]

There is no real climo for deformation bands though. Not only does it depend on low track, but also how compact the mid level are.

Truth but it would be interesting to see a compilation of every winter storms bands . Nothing to do with climo of course but still interesting. 

[powderfreak]

There is no real climo for deformation bands though. Not only does it depend on low track, but also how compact the mid level are.

Yeah as you and Will always point out whenever some assumption is made. The compact ones vs. the deform bands 200 miles away.

[ORH_wxman]

wait you chided me for my EPO love saying the last 3 years were an outlier....lol If you had the ability to combine every single storm into one collage of synoptics my bet is the darkest band would be GC to Dendrite to Jefffafa with a secondary max ISP TO ORH to Newburyport

 

I can list a ton more than the past 3 years...I was merely naming all the ones that happened since October 2011....the last time it happened.

 

I'm not sure I agree with your climo. Novak and Lance Bosart did a study on essentially "death bands"...and their conclusions don't support the idea that they love to set up over C NH to GC. Granted, it should be known that this study was only done from 1996-2001...it isn't a huge sample, and there's probably a storm or three they could have left out when it was further north. But the only deathbnad that set up in that area over the period was Feb 5, 2001:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My own memory of all the events since 2001 would also support the idea that there's not much evidence for bands wanting to set up there.

 

 

I think the narrative is driven mainly by two factors:

 

1. They had 2 monster banding events in very close proximity in two large profile events...Jan 2011 and Oct 2011. This remains fresh in everyone's memory.

 

2. The interior in general sees more snow than the coastal plain. So this idea feeds into the notion that they also get deathbands when in reality, there's plenty of storms that don't produce deathbands there, but it is simply snowing moderately or heavily over the interior while the coast is fighting BL issues...so the snow totals make it look like there was a huge band there when maybe there wasn't. (last pre-Thanksgiving is probably a good example of this and so is Feb 13-14, 2014)

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah as you and Will always point out whenever some assumption is made. The compact ones vs. the deform bands 200 miles away.

I am old enough and savy enough to know over the course of my life that the GC to Dendrite band has happened more than the SNE band, ours are extremely dynamic with the wind from the pond but in all the decades of following this stuff I am confidant they score more death bands than me. Anecdotal but JMHO

[Hoth]

I have had three big FU events.

 

PD II

Dec 5-7, 2003

October 2011

October '11 hurt, so did Feb '10, but I still thank God I did not have to suffer through that endless subsidence nightmare in RI during the March '13 storm. That had toaster-bath written all over it. In fact, I'm amazed our accordion playing virtuoso survived that event.

[Ginx snewx]

Classic LOL

[CoastalWx]

In also will say that we should not include just blizzards. Hell feb 7 2003, march 6 2003and jan 21 2014 were all "small" storms that featured 11-18" of snow from a deformation band. And those were in mostly SE MA. Again, no climo.

[eekuasepinniW]

Novak and Lance Bosart did a study on essentially "death bands"...and their conclusions don't support the idea that they love to set up over C NH to GC.

I could have told you this.  I've been studying them a lot longer than those guys. 

[snowman21]

I'm calling it now... this will be the winter of yellow pixels for us.

So lots of bright-banding from sleet and melting snowflakes?

[powderfreak]

Classic LOL

Man look at all those bands in upstate NY...like ALB to SYR. And also down in PA. Long time since we've seen a bunch of those deep interior bands.

[ORH_wxman]

Man look at all those bands in upstate NY...like ALB to SYR. And also down in PA. Long time since we've seen a bunch of those deep interior bands.

 

 

They'll be back. This winter is as good as any to regress back toward the mean.

[Typhoon Tip]

I remember reading a paper a long time ago about this sort of thing, where land features interacting with the atmosphere tend to 'force' distribution patterns.   Not talking just because of oreographic effects, either. 

 

For example, fledgling TC will tend to develop around an island?  Like it cookie-cutters it's way around because convection is obviously favored over the warm water, not land; so as the deep convection builds continuously seaward in 'pulls' the vortex to collocated with the associated UVM.

 

Seems to me that a reasonably hypothesis would be that with mid latitude cyclones interacting with continental air (damming/ cold BL inhibition and so forth), the physical interplay would do something in its own rite, where it just doesn't favor banding be anywhere else. I'm sure given enough atmospheric forcing, it would over-come, but the atmosphere ...like everything else in nature and flowing water and back, tends to find the course of least resistance.  

 

Coastals tend to find said least resistance ..say 100 naut mile E of NJ, well then the standard model wouldn't put banding over Detroit in that scenario... or over Worcester MA.

[powderfreak]

They'll be back. This winter is as good as any to regress back toward the mean.

Funny in the years of that study, it looks like it was more likely to have a band over like PA up through ALB or eastern/central NY, than anywhere in New England.

If you took the last 5 years, like their 5-year period, you'd find none of that.

[Ginx snewx]

They'll be back. This winter is as good as any to regress back toward the mean.

or so we have been told the last 3 years lol

[Ginx snewx]

So lots of bright-banding from sleet and melting snowflakes?

hopefully not that means we are pure rain 

[Ginx snewx]

Man look at all those bands in upstate NY...like ALB to SYR. And also down in PA. Long time since we've seen a bunch of those deep interior bands.

BDR the winner in that small sample period of time

[ORH_wxman]

I remember reading a paper a long time ago about this sort of thing, where land features interacting with the atmosphere tend to 'force' distribution patterns.   Not talking just because of oreographic effects, either. 

 

For example, fledgling TC will tend to develop around an island?  Like it cookie-cutters it's way around because convection is obviously favored over the warm water, not land; so as the deep convection builds continuously seaward in 'pulls' the vortex to collocated with the associated UVM.

 

Seems to me that a reasonably hypothesis would be that with mid latitude cyclones interacting with continental air (damming/ cold BL inhibition and so forth), the physical interplay would do something in its own rite, where it just doesn't favor banding be anywhere else. I'm sure given enough atmospheric forcing, it would over-come, but the atmosphere ...like everything else in nature and flowing water and back, tends to find the course of least resistance.  

 

The thing about intense banding though is that it is almost entirely driven by the mid-levels...which are largely geostrophic since they are above the boundary layer.

 

 

You'll obviously get some orographic enhancement from the low levels, but that is a seperate feature of storms than a big mid-level death band. We also often see the low level convergence within 10 miles of the coast due to that land friction you mention. All are important parts of cold season cyclones here.

 

But I'm not sure there is a large effect on intense banding that is mostly driven via ML frontogenesis and -EPV in the upper levels. If there is an effect, it doesn''t seem to be large enough to differentiate from statistical noise.

 

On a larger scale, I can see how something like the Appalachains interfere with this process and it's no surprise that the Apps (esp central Apps) see a minimum in cyclone tracks...which is why places like Buffalo don't often get large synoptic banding on the NW side of a storm....the storms are usually too far east. But this is a much larger scale interference than denoting whether ORH or LCI is more favorable for a death band.

[Ginx snewx]

Funny in the years of that study, it looks like it was more likely to have a band over like PA up through ALB or eastern/central NY, than anywhere in New England.

If you took the last 5 years, like their 5-year period, you'd find none of that.

was that just winter though?

[Ginx snewx]

I could have told you this.  I've been studying them a lot longer than those guys. 

Botany is irrevalant      

[Ginx snewx]

was that just winter though?

edit here is the study, very very interesting ( to me anyways)

http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~toine379/extremeprecip/papers/novak_et_al_2004.pdf

[ORH_wxman]

The study is cold season. All storms that produced large banded precip. The map does not include storms that only had weaker multi banded precip or no banding at all. It also is not just snowstorms. Though the majority of the storms in there I would imagine are snow events. NW side of a storm in cold season will usually produce snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

The thing about intense banding though is that it is almost entirely driven by the mid-levels...which are largely geostrophic since they are above the boundary layer.

 

 

You'll obviously get some orographic enhancement from the low levels, but that is a seperate feature of storms than a big mid-level death band. We also often see the low level convergence within 10 miles of the coast due to that land friction you mention. All are important parts of cold season cyclones here.

 

But I'm not sure there is a large effect on intense banding that is mostly driven via ML frontogenesis and -EPV in the upper levels. If there is an effect, it doesn''t seem to be large enough to differentiate from statistical noise.

 

On a larger scale, I can see how something like the Appalachains interfere with this process and it's no surprise that the Apps (esp central Apps) see a minimum in cyclone tracks...which is why places like Buffalo don't often get large synoptic banding on the NW side of a storm....the storms are usually too far east. But this is a much larger scale interference than denoting whether ORH or LCI is more favorable for a death band.

 

I think it's connected though/ integrable with the vertical structure of the cyclone, though.  

 

"Tilt" plays a roll for obvious reasons... but, the frontal slopes aloft and where they nexus with that geostrophic forcing ...and this is key, 'the best' ... 

 

We can have better appearance of geostrophic forcing over a given area, but if that is not flowing over the top of the steepest elevated frontal slope, the result will be less intense with the banding.  That kind of goes along with your -EPV stuff..sure.

 

It's sort of a chain of logic in my mind, from that point on ... Since the standard model has a certain thetas, and distances, with these spatial attributes, ..in the vertical and horizontal... the rest follows.  All coastals are just perversions of a standard model. If geostrophpic forcing is that strong and the system is that tilted, we usually end up shredding on radar  

[powderfreak]

The study is cold season. All storms that produced large banded precip. The map does not include storms that only had weaker multi banded precip or no banding at all. It also is not just snowstorms. Though the majority of the storms in there I would imagine are snow events. NW side of a storm in cold season will usually produce snow.

Yeah seeing those bands, one would assume mostly snow events at least where the deform band is. Maybe a couple elevation storms in the fall or spring?

But very interesting distribution given the past 3-5 years.

[powderfreak]

or so we have been told the last 3 years lol

Sooner or later it'll come. But I've been thinking that for a couple winters now.

This is the only 6-year period (the last 6 winters) on record since 1954 that the Mansfield co-op snow bucket hasn't filled 200" or more in a season. That snow bucket is fairly useless but it's an interesting stat. Definitely a little snow drought that's hopefully ready to bust open.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Can't believe it's been 4 years since that October storm already. I was still in high school at the time lol.

I wasn't following on here at the time, but I've gone back through the observations and pics. Incredible stuff.

I think we even saw an inch or two here towards the very end.

What a weird month that was though. Even before that storm we had seen flakes earlier in the week. Seems pretty unlikely that places in SE Mass even see snow on two separate occasions in October

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah seeing those bands, one would assume mostly snow events at least where the deform band is. Maybe a couple elevation storms in the fall or spring?

But very interesting distribution given the past 3-5 years.

 

 

If you think about what winters the study included, it's not too surprising. You start with the 1996-1997 winter and end with the 2000-2001 winter. That's some crappy winters in there for eastern areas (like east of the Hudson River)....2000-2001 of course was epic over interior New England, but otherwise, slim pickin's...the two trick pony in '96-'97 not withstanding.

 

There were some bombs for interior NY State during that time too...like Dec 30, 1997 and Feb 24, 1998 and the twin storms of March 1999.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd like to see a classic CCB head.

 

Seems it's been a long time since a storm pivoted underneath us that had that solid pan-wide 30+DBz snowball.  There could be meso banding in there, but it just looks really uniform and everyone is S to S+.  

 

Seems for a decade or more it's been about who gets the band somewhere exceeding everyone else by 2 or 3 times the regional total.  

 

And that poster thinking it was the storm of the century of course...