IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The Euro is about 50-75 miles NW of its 00z run. A similar shift tonight would bring measurable rain into most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 6:02 PM, AvantHiatus said: Latest Euro looks like a big hit. (in-relation to 0z) It closes off a 500mb low near Ocean City, MD this run which really helps to tuck this into the coast. 8"+ for coastal VD/MD through Saturday morning and still raining there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 This run is so close, Saturday is rainy/showery along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Looks like the 1"+ contour makes it close to Trenton where on the 00z run it was near Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 8.8" QPF maximum near VA Beach. Can't remember the last time I saw the Euro show that type of precip outside of a tropical system. It shows something close to 6" in about 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Saturday is rainy from about the GSP East. NYC, LI and New England all getting into the rain. 1000mb SW of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 6:07 PM, IsentropicLift said: It closes off a 500mb low near Ocean City, MD this run which really helps to tuck this into the coast. 8"+ for coastal VD/MD through Saturday morning and still raining there. insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Very impressive Isentropic. Getting pumped for this system which snuck under the radar. I remember you mentioning the possibility when posting the ensembles earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 NYC East is 1-2" of rain on the Euro. SNE gets smoked with 2-4" of rain Saturday into Sunday. Lets get this another 50-75 miles NW and we'll get one hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 3:55 PM, ag3 said: Its not even close. Well south. Rain for NYC is done. Please continue, every model has shifted NW since you said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 6:16 PM, IsentropicLift said: NYC East is 1-2" of rain on the Euro. SNE gets smoked with 2-4" of rain Saturday into Sunday. Lets get this another 50-75 miles NW and we'll get one hell of a storm. I'm not surprised TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 the euro has been overdone with coastal systems for at least the past year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 18z NAM will likely show something crazy, like a foot of rain somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 All the other guidance is SE of the OP Euro. So we'll have to see if the 12z ensembles give any support to the OP. It's usually game on when the Euro OP and ensembles agree with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 6:25 PM, bluewave said: All the other guidance is SE of the OP Euro. So we'll have to see if the 12z ensembles give any support to the OP. It's usually game on when the Euro OP and ensembles agree with each other. The GEFS mean shifted NW. Not as much as the Euro OP but somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Coastal VA/MD are going to get crushed. Imagine if this was a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Look at that 500mb vort max tuck right into the NJ coast! Lets get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Between this weekend and early next week the Euro is showing 10"+ for parts of the VA Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Huge NW shift by the Canadian ensembles. Almost 1.5" for NYC on the mean! 0.75"+ back to High Point, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 6:35 PM, IsentropicLift said: Look at that 500mb vort max tuck right into the NJ coast! Lets get it done. On 8/5/2015 at 6:35 PM, IsentropicLift said: It looks like the intensification and very heavy rainfall over the MA is a result of the OP phasing the more southerly vort with the one coming across the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 6:56 PM, bluewave said: It looks like the intensification and very heavy rainfall over the MA is a result of the OP phasing the more southerly vort with the one coming across the lakes. Yes, it also helps to tug the entire thing further NW. I am not saying that this is going to end up being the coastal hugger bomb that some of us desire, but I think the models were too far Southeast the last 36hrs and we could end up getting significant rainfall after some have written this completely off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 7:00 PM, IsentropicLift said: Yes, it also helps to tug the entire thing further NW. I am not saying that this is going to end up being the coastal hugger bomb that some of us desire, but I think the models were too far Southeast the last 36hrs and we could end up getting significant rainfall after some have written this completely off. The ARW's in the SREFS were also more NW. It would be nice if we could get some agreement with the OP Euro and ensembles when they come out soon. I can remember them both locking onto the February 2013 phase 120 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 New SREFS will be out shortly. Tracking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 7:09 PM, Morris said: New SREFS will be out shortly. Tracking... WETTER OLD run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 could be forum screwgie as SNJ and Eastern NE cash in on the SREFS but looks to be a drier zone around NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 7:39 PM, IsentropicLift said: WETTER OLD run That's another nice bump north. For other areas, this is a huge jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Euro ensemble mean ticking NW. Another great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 7:51 PM, IsentropicLift said: Euro ensemble mean ticking NW. Another great sign. How much more NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Completely unrelated to this weekend, HPC going wet to start next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 On 8/5/2015 at 8:04 PM, IsentropicLift said: Completely unrelated to this weekend, HPC going wet to start next week. Texas bone dry for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.