IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 SREF trending wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The NAM is insisting on some scattered showers/storms crossing the area later today. The HRRR has been trending increasingly showery. There is actually a small amount of SBCAPE and shear to work with should anything be able to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 12z NAM is about 50 miles further North so far. Honestly the models probably shifted too far South yesterday. The final answer is probably closer to what the 8/4 00z EPS mean had which was some rain for the area while the heaviest went over SNJ and then Eastern New England. Rain up to Trenton by early Friday morning. 06z had the rain confined to the Delmarva at the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Nice run to run consistency. Now only if we could get the GFS to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Some monsters in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Nice run to run consistency. Now only if we could get the GFS to do this. Reminds me of 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Reminds me of 09-10 Let's not get carried away All we have right now is a few SREF members and the worst model trending in a better direction. That and a dollar will get you a can of soda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 It looks like the disturbance coming through the GL will act as a kicker and keep the Friday storm to our south. It will be up to the storm next week to try and finally deliver some rains for the Long Island drought area. But the heaviest rains passing south or west of long Island has been the pattern since the spring. 90dPDeptNRCC.png About 2 " below normal here for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 12z Rgem is a complete miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 12z GFS shifting North. DC to SNJ getting it hard this run. 06z was way down in Southern VA. Better, slower look at H5 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 12z GFS is at least 12 hours slower, might even more a bit more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Over 3" of rain for the DC metro. 06z GFS had under 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 That trailing shortwave is trying to phase in. Weakly negative trough in place with surface low development near OBX late Friday night. Plenty of rain offshore from Maine to North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 This run is nothing like previous runs. It was really close to pulling off something big. I wouldn't turn my back on this one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 This run is nothing like previous runs. It was really close to pulling off something big. I wouldn't turn my back on this one yet. Its not even close. Well south. Rain for NYC is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Briefly closes off two mid-level centers within 100 miles of the NJ coast. We're one more significant shift away from getting back into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Its not even close. Well south. Rain for NYC is done. It's well North of previous runs, do you deny that? It was also a much improved look at H5. Slower, more organized and more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Final solution most likely in b/w the far north runs of 36 hrs ago and the far south runs of yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Final solution is the Rgem runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Final solution is the Rgem runs tomorrow. let's hope so, that's 12 hours prior to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 GEFS mean with a big NW shift. I see no reason to believe that we should assume the models have it right when we've seen virtually zero consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 let's hope so, that's 12 hours prior to the event No. That would be 24-36 hours out. UKMET seems like a middle of the road. Feb, 2010 repeat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 UKMET is essentially back to yesterday's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Looks like about 20 or so 12z GEFS members track the low either inside the benchmark or over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Getting ready for winter I see. We could use some good rains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Getting ready for winter I see. We could use some good rains though. I am excited for Winter and getting back to tracking. My feelings are that with the current El Nino situation things are going to end up warmer and wetter than average which is going to cause a lot of bickering and whining. Especially if the interior ends up doing consistently better than the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 It's nice to frame the situation as a prelude to winter but August and December is not a very good comparison. The wavelengths are completely different. This upcoming system is more like a Mesoscale Convective Vortex. The forecast for Friday is 81/69 with heavy rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 It's nice to frame the situation as a prelude to winter but August and December is not a very good comparison. The wavelengths are completely different. This upcoming system is more like a Mesoscale Convective Vortex. The forecast for Friday is 81/69 with heavy rain down here. LOL I don't think anyone is trying to compare this to a Winter system but we do have some phasing and a deepening surface low pressure system which are both rare this time of year. The beginning of Noreaster season is still about 10 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Light rain making it to Long Island and C/S NJ by Friday afternoon on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 LOL I don't think anyone is trying to compare this to a Winter system but we do have some phasing and a deepening surface low pressure system which are both rare this time of year. The beginning of Noreaster season is still about 10 weeks away. Latest Euro looks like a big hit. (in-relation to 0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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