JerseyWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Well it certainly looks like the GFS has won the battle. 18z barely grazes the DC area. But will the GFS win the war? Models have been too inconsistent, even at short range to take any one scenario as definite. If the concensus today was for 2" there would still be a whole bunch of skeptical posters so now it's time to be skeptical about a complete miss. Was just watching Lonnie Quinn on CBS 2 and he said the same thing. He was saying how its just a model run, and to wait it out a little bit. Tomorrow will be better in terms of confidence and Thursday even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The only time that I saw nearly continuous lightning was with the 5-31-85 tornado outbreak storms when they arrived here and weakened. You can see that that flash rate in the videos below from this morning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGd63vvamjA Wooooow! The second video is legit continuous Lightning. Nothing like that in wantagh but solid. How was it by you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Wooooow! The second video is legit continuous Lightning. Nothing like that in wantagh but solid. How was it by you? The storms seemed to have briefly pulsed down when crossing through here with gusts to only 30-40 mph. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KOKX∏=bref1&bkgr=gray&endDate=20150804&endTime=11&duration=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 August 2011 was the last real severe here, like 10 days before Irene. Had a lot of hail in 2008 as well. But since then, it's been dull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I never saw lighting like that before when it went east of me, nonstop. The only times I saw constant lightning like that was from a severe storm in Iowa in 2010 and from a thunderstorm in Orlando last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 When I was in Orlando for about a week, it rained every single day I was present there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 My part of Brooklyn got quarter size hail and 90 mph winds from that macroburst/tornado.I've still got a picture on my phone from that storm (screenshot anyway...) Check it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 it's funny you all say that about the constant lightning.. I lived in New England my whole life and never saw constant lightning until moving to NY..there was a midnight storm last summer that had me terrified.. i wanted to move back home to NE..there was a large trio of arbor vitaes against the house when we bought it.. we had them removed last month so we don't have to repair the gutters every time the wind blows.. it's been relatively calm for storms here this year though.. last year i saw hail three times.. pea sized mostly, but i might have see that back in NE three times in my whole life there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 it's funny you all say that about the constant lightning.. I lived in New England my whole life and never saw constant lightning until moving to NY.. there was a midnight storm last summer that had me terrified.. i wanted to move back home to NE.. there was a large trio of arbor vitaes against the house when we bought it.. we had them removed last month so we don't have to repair the gutters every time the wind blows.. it's been relatively calm for storms here this year though.. last year i saw hail three times.. pea sized mostly, but i might have see that back in NE three times in my whole life there Funny how many hail reports there were in New England today and you were in NYS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 we used to get more severe. i don't know if climate change has anything to do with it yet but we've had an awful stretch of luck since the mid 2000s since the mid 2000's there was a f2 tornado in Brooklyn in 2007 and another one in 2011...Irene/Sandy in 2011- 2012. Richmond County Tornadoes 959 AUG 10, 1990 8 13:45 0 3 0 40.57 -074.10 00.00 0 85 1137 OCT 28, 1995 6 2:45 0 0 1 40.58 -074.15 00.00 0 85 667 OCT 27, 2003 18 15:20 0 0 0 40.60 -074.20 40.60 -074.20 85 869 AUG 8, 2007 3 4:22 0 9 2 40.63 -074.11 40.64 -073.97 85,47......................................................................................... Queens County Tornadoes 647 OCT 5, 1985 8 9:55 0 6 1 40.72 -073.83 00.00 0 81 1068 SEP 16, 2010 12 15:42 1 1 1 40.74 -073.84 40.80 -073.76 81349929 AUG 28, 2011 16 2:00 0 0 0 40.73 -073.76 40.74 -073.77 81414295 SEP 8, 2012 8:58 0 0 1 40.55 -073.93 40.63 -073.89 81,47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 it's funny you all say that about the constant lightning.. I lived in New England my whole life and never saw constant lightning until moving to NY.. there was a midnight storm last summer that had me terrified.. i wanted to move back home to NE.. there was a large trio of arbor vitaes against the house when we bought it.. we had them removed last month so we don't have to repair the gutters every time the wind blows.. it's been relatively calm for storms here this year though.. last year i saw hail three times.. pea sized mostly, but i might have see that back in NE three times in my whole life there you're in a good spot for severe around here-well away from the water. N and W of NYC often does well in that dept. (unlike me right on the water in CT where storms go to die-at least we get the rains-it's worse further east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Funny how many hail reports there were in New England today and you were in NYS lol ain't that the story of the weather lovers life though? i sat there in shock! the videos, pics, it was unreal! i did live there in 2011, the Monson tornado.. it was a site and a feeling that will never leave me. when you see large pieces of steel wrapped firmly around trees, slate tile rooves on the ground, children's toys on the sidewalk near sparking wires.. the entire steeple of a church in shambles on the ground.. the feeling of wanting to do something for all of those people and feeling absolutely helpless at the same time was overwhelming.. you're in a good spot for severe around here-well away from the water. N and W of NYC often does well in that dept. (unlike me right on the water in CT where storms go to die-at least we get the rains-it's worse further east) that one storm was all i needed to tell me i hit on a spot that's going to roll me once or twice a year at least.. the trick is being right between these mountains.. definitely don't have that ocean influence that i used to back home or the curse of being at the bottom of the worcester hills here! Orange county cashes in pretty often, I see storms just park right over that border and not move.. it's awesome to see.. weather is definitely more interesting here than in Massachusetts.. RI, though, that's where this nerd got to nerdin'.. it was out of fear that I got into watching weather as a kid.. I had to learn when there were going to be storms so I could brace myself for them at night! Petrified!! I lived in northern RI, not where they had all the weather today.. always had lots of snow, heavy storms and the occasional tropical storms/hurricane would come by.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 I've still got a picture on my phone from that storm (screenshot anyway...) Check it out! _20150804_205815.JPG Remember that day like it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 ain't that the story of the weather lovers life though? i sat there in shock! the videos, pics, it was unreal! i did live there in 2011, the Monson tornado.. it was a site and a feeling that will never leave me. when you see large pieces of steel wrapped firmly around trees, slate tile rooves on the ground, children's toys on the sidewalk near sparking wires.. the entire steeple of a church in shambles on the ground.. the feeling of wanting to do something for all of those people and feeling absolutely helpless at the same time was overwhelming.. that one storm was all i needed to tell me i hit on a spot that's going to roll me once or twice a year at least.. the trick is being right between these mountains.. definitely don't have that ocean influence that i used to back home or the curse of being at the bottom of the worcester hills here! Orange county cashes in pretty often, I see storms just park right over that border and not move.. it's awesome to see.. weather is definitely more interesting here than in Massachusetts.. RI, though, that's where this nerd got to nerdin'.. it was out of fear that I got into watching weather as a kid.. I had to learn when there were going to be storms so I could brace myself for them at night! Petrified!! I lived in northern RI, not where they had all the weather today.. always had lots of snow, heavy storms and the occasional tropical storms/hurricane would come by.. Wow that must have been a sight. I couldn't imagine a tornado like that hitting NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 ain't that the story of the weather lovers life though? i sat there in shock! the videos, pics, it was unreal! i did live there in 2011, the Monson tornado.. it was a site and a feeling that will never leave me. when you see large pieces of steel wrapped firmly around trees, slate tile rooves on the ground, children's toys on the sidewalk near sparking wires.. the entire steeple of a church in shambles on the ground.. the feeling of wanting to do something for all of those people and feeling absolutely helpless at the same time was overwhelming.. that one storm was all i needed to tell me i hit on a spot that's going to roll me once or twice a year at least.. the trick is being right between these mountains.. definitely don't have that ocean influence that i used to back home or the curse of being at the bottom of the worcester hills here! Orange county cashes in pretty often, I see storms just park right over that border and not move.. it's awesome to see.. weather is definitely more interesting here than in Massachusetts.. RI, though, that's where this nerd got to nerdin'.. it was out of fear that I got into watching weather as a kid.. I had to learn when there were going to be storms so I could brace myself for them at night! Petrified!! I lived in northern RI, not where they had all the weather today.. always had lots of snow, heavy storms and the occasional tropical storms/hurricane would come by.. Rockland Co sucks....so does NE I live in the worst area for thunderstorms in the northeast. It's depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Rockland Co sucks....so does NE I live in the worst area for thunderstorms in the northeast. It's depressing. I was sooooo excited to move to Rockland county for the storms since they were always hitting them. This year, unfortunately, god is giggling behind his hands wondering when I'll get annoyed :-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Nice fish storm off of South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 F*ck it. I'm moving to the north shore... North shore is not a severe mecca either. This was the worst thunderstorm in years. Having cowered n the middle of the house it's fair to say this one was a doozy, but it is not a common occurrence. Now if you're talking winter, then you've got a very good point, PS Got power back at 11:30PM, but the other side of the street is still out. Ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Today's Highs TEB: 91 NYC: 89 EWR: 93 LGA: 91 JFK: 92 ISP: 89 New Brunswick: 91 BLM: 91 TTN: 91 PHL: 93 ACY: 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 5, 2015 Author Share Posted August 5, 2015 Today's Highs TEB: 91 NYC: 89 EWR: 93 LGA: 91 JFK: 92 ISP: 89 New Brunswick: 91 BLM: 91 TTN: 91 PHL: 93 ACY: 93 I hit 92 here and lol i knew KNYC won't hit 90 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I hit 92 here and lol i knew KNYC won't hit 90 today There was more rain there last night. Poor representation of the metro/urban areas, this is turning into 2006-like discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 What do the current long range forecast patterns look like for mid-late-August? Sometimes it cools down pretty dramatically in August, sometimes it doesn't cool down until well into September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 So many were touting cool cool cool and now hints of warm up mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 So many were touting cool cool cool and now hints of warm up mid month Mixed signals on the ensembles after day 10 like you might expect but the GEFS show below average temps in the East through at least then. The core of below average anomalies appear to remain over the mid-west. That would normally lead to a trough over the lakes and storminess in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 So many were touting cool cool cool and now hints of warm up mid month yep, big ol long term model bustola. No rains as far as the eye can see and not really that cool and then warm back up to normal and above looking more likely once past middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 yep, big ol long term model bustola. No rains as far as the eye can see and not really that cool and then warm back up to normal and above looking more likely once past middle of next week. Strong signal on the models for another chance at a wrapped up coastal early next week. GFS has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 So many were touting cool cool cool and now hints of warm up mid montha trof overhead isn't a guarantee for below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 yep, big ol long term model bustola. No rains as far as the eye can see and not really that cool and then warm back up to normal and above looking more likely once past middle of next week. Part of the problem, I think, with these longer-term debates is peoples' different interpretations of the word "cool." Cooler than normal implicates something much different than "cool" at this time of year, considering you'd need anomalous negative departures to achieve the latter. Needless to say, the next two weeks are depicted as normal to cooler than normal on the ECMWF ensembles, with warmer than normal temperatures returning possibly post the 15th. So the first half of August will likely go into the books as cooler than normal for most of the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 So many were touting cool cool cool and now hints of warm up mid month I'm still waiting to see 100s, it's been a completely uneventful summer. The heat has been very meh worthy and no where near record breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I'm still waiting to see 100s, it's been a completely uneventful summer. The heat has been very meh worthy and no where near record breaking. How about 95F. I still haven't reached that benchmark since July 19th, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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