ag3 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 the canadian is even further south than its 0z run. the fat lady is going through her scales 12z Ukmet is still pretty close: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 It basically went to the Euro ensemble mean which was further SE than the OP at 0z. Hopefully this isn't an early preview of a winter filled with euro teases. GFS has become the new Dr. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 12z GGEM ensemble mean is just about an inch of rain for NYC with 0.75"+ reaching back into NE PA. It is a bit drier than 00z however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 50 mile shift either way means everything at this point. Too soon to toss in the towel, but would need to see a north trend commence quickly. We're coming to 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Hopefully this isn't an early preview of a winter filled with euro teases. GFS has become the new Dr. No. I am hoping that the Euro has a good winter since it usually does so well with the southern stream Miller A's. We saw last winter how the OP could be shaky with northern stream or split flow Miller B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 50 mile shift either way means everything at this point. Too soon to toss in the towel, but would need to see a north trend commence quickly. We're coming to 72 hrs Lol this sounds familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 Wow look at that supercell near Worcester,MA. impressive Edit: further north in NH not Worcester sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I am hoping that the Euro has a good winter since it usually does so well with the southern stream Miller A's. We saw last winter how the OP could be shaky with northern stream or split flow Miller B's. Wonder if the same rules apply? This euro has been retooled since the last true Miller A winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The Euro is much flatter at H5 by Thursday afternoon. Going to make an early call and say it's Southeast this run, although the energy remains much more consolidated than the GFS and it might be able to turn the corner harder than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Still nothing like the GFS in terms of organization but this is about 50-75 miles Southeast of 00z. Heaviest over the Delmarva and SNJ rather than E PA on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The Euro is 6"+ near Baltimore and barely 0.50"+ in Philly. NYC looks to be around a trace or so. I have a hard time believing that this will end up holding steady over the next 3+ days. I think odds are increasing that it ends up being more of strung out mess that produces some decent convection and not much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Wonder if the same rules apply? This euro has been retooled since the last true Miller A winter Next upgrade scheduled for early 2016. Now that the current 41r1 e-suite is on track for implementation in May, we would like to communicate our longer-term plans in the coming year. These plans are of course only indicative at this stage, subject to changes as we proceed with experimentation in the Research Department and with the technical implementation. Following preliminary scientific and technical studies, we have developed an ambitious plan for the next change of horizontal resolution. This resolution upgrade will keep the same resolution in spectral space as in current operations, but will use a much denser set of grid-points to better resolve physical processes. The associated grids will be referred to as "cubic octahedral", with the HRES and ENS resolutions being labelled as TCo1279 and TCo639 respectively, corresponding to a grid spacing of around 9 and 18km. The resulting meteorological fields will be more accurate and contain much more energy in the finer scales. The plan is to start running extensive Research experimentation in summer, provide first technical test data in autumn this year, for an implementation in early 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The Euro is 6"+ near Baltimore and barely 0.50"+ in Philly. NYC looks to be around a trace or so. I have a hard time believing that this will end up holding steady over the next 3+ days. I think odds are increasing that it ends up being more of strung out mess that produces some decent convection and not much more. following the GFS model as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 My God, the 12z EURO really drops the hammer in the days 8-10 time frame. Carves out a deep trough which would keep us in the low 70's for highs around mid-month. It's not as bad as the interior which flirts with highs only reaching the mid 60's in places like Pittsburgh. Very Septemberish pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Wow at what is going on in Northern Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 My God, the 12z EURO really drops the hammer in the days 8-10 time frame. Carves out a deep trough which would keep us in the low 70's for highs around mid-month. It's not as bad as the interior which flirts with highs only reaching the mid 60's in places like Pittsburgh. Very Septemberish pattern. would fit with some of the cooler augusts we've seen in recent years plus El Nino climo often favors a cool august here. (Although that does seem like an over-done solution) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Wow at what is going on in Northern Massachusetts. Yep. They can nail it in Winter, and Summer. A good location if your a weather extremists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yep. They can nail it in Winter, and Summer. A good location if your a weather extremists. We just had a bit of bad timing with this one. Still I'm sure the people that got clocked this morning don't feel shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 We just had a bit of bad timing with this one. Still I'm sure the people that got clocked this morning don't feel shafted. Best storm of the year hands down by me. And I was on the edge. But wooooooooowwwwwww at Boston rignt now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 Boston getting clobbered with golf ball size hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Best storm of the year hands down by me. And I was on the edge. But wooooooooowwwwwww at Boston rignt now F*ck it. I'm moving to the north shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 F*ck it. I'm moving to the north shore... Oh for weathe for sure it's waaaaaay better. But it's also not cheap. Boston wins though! Better winters, more severe and better chance at hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Once again huge differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Oh for weathe for sure it's waaaaaay better. But it's also not cheap. Boston wins though! Better winters, more severe and better chance at hurricanes I just don't like areas where tall trees hang right over houses which is asking for trouble. You can see a sample of the extensive tree damage to houses in the photo gallery below. http://www.newsday.com/long-island/fast-moving-storm-downs-trees-disrupts-lirr-1.10705682 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Oh for weathe for sure it's waaaaaay better. But it's also not cheap. Boston wins though! Better winters, more severe and better chance at hurricanes we used to get more severe. i don't know if climate change has anything to do with it yet but we've had an awful stretch of luck since the mid 2000s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I just don't like areas where tall trees hang right over houses which is asking for trouble. You can see a sample of the extensive tree damage to houses in the photo gallery below. http://www.newsday.com/long-island/fast-moving-storm-downs-trees-disrupts-lirr-1.10705682 I never saw lighting like that before when it went east of me, nonstop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 we used to get more severe. i don't know if climate change has anything to do with it yet but we've had an awful stretch of luck since the mid 2000s It seems like it either goes north or south of us, nothing ever works out for the metro area anymore. Can't remember my last severe thunderstorm, it has been years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Well it certainly looks like the GFS has won the battle. 18z barely grazes the DC area. But will the GFS win the war? Models have been too inconsistent, even at short range to take any one scenario as definite. If the concensus today was for 2" there would still be a whole bunch of skeptical posters so now it's time to be skeptical about a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I never saw lighting like that before when it went east of me, nonstop. The only time that I saw nearly continuous lightning was with the 5-31-85 tornado outbreak storms when they arrived here and weakened. You can see that that flash rate in the videos below from this morning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGd63vvamjA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 When I rode out the mid Atlantic derecho in southern NJ we had non stop lightning for two hours. I've seen that 3 or 4 more times down there, never up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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