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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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In large part, the reason for the consecutive 80F streak isn't so much that we've been in a torch regime, it's that there's been an absence of organized precipitation events thus summer. As a result, we saw virtually no days in the past couple months in which the majority of the day was cloudy with rain around. Usually every summer, you can count on at least a day with significant cloud cover/debris, therefore keeping temperatures sub 80F in NYC.

So the 80F streak, IMO, is mostly due to the very dry pattern over the past month. 500mb heights have actually averaged below normal since mid July.

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Usually that's the reason, but we do also get the occasional cool down where temps stay below 80 despite the sunshine.

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some late August early September hot days...

8/28/1948...100

8/28/1953.....98

8/28/1973.....98

8/29/1953.....99

8/30/1953.....98

8/30/1973.....98

8/31/1953...100

8/31/2010.....96

9/01/1953.....97

9/01/2010.....96

9/02/1953...102

9/02/1944.....97

9/02/1929.....96

9/02/1932.....96

9/02/1980.....96

9/03/1929.....99

9/03/1921.....96

9/03/1973.....96

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Just barely made it to 80 today at 80.0F. Currently 61.1F already. Upper 50s the past couple nights; I expect tonight will be the coolest as the sfc high pressure ridge moves overhead.

 

Just a stunning couple of days.  Feels like California.   

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53.5F this morning. Coldest morning since early June.

 

Iso I beat you 53.2.  Slept with the windows open and now have a sniffle.

 

Is it me or has there been 2 years of west coast weater for a large chunk of periods.  Have the poles shifted?

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Iso I beat you 53.2.  Slept with the windows open and now have a sniffle.

 

Is it me or has there been 2 years of west coast weater for a large chunk of periods.  Have the poles shifted?

 

 

Yeah, the past couple years have featured numerous dry / sunny / low dew point airmasses, and I think it's due in large part to the dominant -EPO state, which filters Canadian air southward. While we've seen some excessively humid periods this summer, by and large, since August 2013, the humidity hasn't been that bad compared to what's possible around here.

 

8/31 - 9/3 +/- a day looks like a probable heat wave for most. Should bring most of us up to near normal / slightly above on 90F days, with the hot spots like EWR and NB pushing over 30 on the season.

 

 

Do you think September will average on the cooler side despite the warmer start since some of our stronger Ninos feature cool Septembers?

 

 

I think we're looking at a very warm September relative to normal; however, the strongest warmth relative to normal should occur in the first 10-12 days or so. There will be some "cooling" relative to the first half, and of course averages decline quite rapidly by late  September, so solid positive departures will imply low 80s at that juncture. Right now, the first half of the month looks well above average, while the second half could be only slightly above normal overall, which would allow for some cooler nights. The ECMWF weeklies last night paint a similar picture with anomalous heat through D 10-12, and less significant positive anomalies post September 15th or so.

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