Morris Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Rare very pleasant summer day today. Dry, sunny and temperatures refusing to surge due to the colder air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Irene approached NC from the SE, it looks similar to Floyd actually with it's proximity to Florida. Either way, we'd be very hard pressed to have Erika ride this far north with what is modeled to be overhead. I don't see any major trough coming in to sweep Erika so it could very well slowly make its way up the coast. Models are becoming more bullish on her intensifying as she approaches the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Outstanding, the GFS takes Erika from the Bahamas up the entire East Coast of Florida and up through Georgia, with tropical moisture streaming up the coast into our area as the system stalls in Georgia for days. The dart will make 30 different holes before we know anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 GGEM for ****s and giggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The dart will make 30 different holes before we know anything Yup. As long as it tracks over the very hot Bahamas ocean, it will intensify with weaker shear. Where??? Nobody got a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 GGEM for ****s and giggles Darn pretty. Now give it a little nudge north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Darn pretty. Now give it a little nudge north... It's stalled near VA Beach as the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Park managed to hit 85. LGA and JFK only hit 82. Newark 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's stalled near VA Beach as the run ends. GEM also had Erika wandering into the gulf and hitting the west coast of FL as a weak storm yesterday. So I think we need some run to run consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Does anyone remember the date when we had a 12 hour period of rain totaling an inch or more? Seems like a distant memory to me. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 June 27...a very nasty Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 7/9 : 79 at NYC, before that 7/4. I think if you factor in the record warm Maym, NYC has to be close to the most 80 (+) degree days for the year. Only 7 below normal days since 7/4, next shot to break that is Thu (8/27) maybe. Not going to happen on 8/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 June 27...a very nasty Saturday Thank you. I see now I had 1.09". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 At this rate central park will fiinish the summer +2 (+). The park has had lower amount of 90 days than surrounding metro locals similar to 2006. Many other spots had multi 90 degree days this summer. But for sure its ben steady warmth and not blazing bouts of heat. Central park and points north (by you) will certainly have the lowest chance of 90s this week but other metro areas could get there Monday. Been riding above normal with recent dryness and sun filled days. Still even the confines of the cool park will continue above normal. 850s looks 10 - 15 most of this week and gfs and ecm build in 15 - 18c 850s by 8/30 and it looks poised to continue into early Sep.. El Niño winters are said to be relatively steady in terms of temperatures, without the extremes of cold and warmth prevalent in La Niña winters. Could the same pattern be true for this summer, in other words lots of 80's, almost no 90's, and almost no 70's or 60's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Thank you. I see now I had 1.09". Cool today. The high was only 77° with a very dry and somewhat cool breeze. Nice break before some heat to wave August goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Not going to happen on 8/27. Yeah very unlikely to not reach 80 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 El Niño winters are said to be relatively steady in terms of temperatures, without the extremes of cold and warmth prevalent in La Niña winters. Could the same pattern be true for this summer, in other words lots of 80's, almost no 90's, and almost no 70's or 60's? I wouldnt say almost no 90s (pending on where you are many sites are at avg). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Today's Highs: TEB: 84 NYC: 85 EWR: 85 LGA: 83 JFK: 84 ISP: 83 New Brunswick: 87 BLM: 82 TTN: 81 PHL: 83 ACY: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 New brunswick has done well this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The GFS the last few runs has been warm/wet and not as hot. But this could change again, so we'll see. A tropical system would be neat to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 NYC is currently sitting in third place for the warmest Augusts . This will mark the 34th top ten warmest month of the 2000's for NYC with 5 top ten coolest months. 80.3...1980 79.7...2005 79.2...2015 78.8...1988 78.7...2001 78.5...1995 78.2...1938 78.1...1955 78.0...1939 77.8...1944 77.7...2002/1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 NYC is currently sitting in third place for the warmest Augusts . This will mark the 34th top ten warmest month of the 2000's for NYC with 5 top ten coolest months. 80.3...1980 79.7...2005 79.2...2015 78.8...1988 78.7...2001 78.5...1995 78.2...1938 78.1...1955 78.0...1939 77.8...1944 77.7...2002/1983 Think it'll make a legitimate run at 1st? I know these nights coming up will be cool, so that might hurt it. Sunday and Monday should help boost it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Think it'll make a legitimate run at 1st? I know these nights coming up will be cool, so that might hurt it. Sunday and Monday should help boost it though.Zero chance, you'd have to average like 95/75 the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Only a degree away, yet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The park hit 80. Streak continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 In large part, the reason for the consecutive 80F streak isn't so much that we've been in a torch regime, it's that there's been an absence of organized precipitation events thus summer. As a result, we saw virtually no days in the past couple months in which the majority of the day was cloudy with rain around. Usually every summer, you can count on at least a day with significant cloud cover/debris, therefore keeping temperatures sub 80F in NYC. So the 80F streak, IMO, is mostly due to the very dry pattern over the past month. 500mb heights have actually averaged below normal since mid July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 In large part, the reason for the consecutive 80F streak isn't so much that we've been in a torch regime, it's that there's been an absence of organized precipitation events thus summer. As a result, we saw virtually no days in the past couple months in which the majority of the day was cloudy with rain around. Usually every summer, you can count on at least a day with significant cloud cover/debris, therefore keeping temperatures sub 80F in NYC. So the 80F streak, IMO, is mostly due to the very dry pattern over the past month. 500mb heights have actually averaged below normal since mid July. In large part, the reason for the consecutive 80F streak isn't so much that we've been in a torch regime, it's that there's been an absence of organized precipitation events thus summer. As a result, we saw virtually no days in the past couple months in which the majority of the day was cloudy with rain around. Usually every summer, you can count on at least a day with significant cloud cover/debris, therefore keeping temperatures sub 80F in NYC. So the 80F streak, IMO, is mostly due to the very dry pattern over the past month. 500mb heights have actually averaged below normal since mid July. I agree as well. This theory makes sense. Great post, iso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 and doesn't appear to be any cloudy days on tap anytime soon. Erika could be the next chance, assuming it survives and its remnants make it here at all. Big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 and doesn't appear to be any cloudy days on tap anytime soon. Erika could be the next chance, assuming it survives and its remnants make it here at all. Big if. Nothing like making up for your entire rainfall deficit in a single shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 In large part, the reason for the consecutive 80F streak isn't so much that we've been in a torch regime, it's that there's been an absence of organized precipitation events thus summer. As a result, we saw virtually no days in the past couple months in which the majority of the day was cloudy with rain around. Usually every summer, you can count on at least a day with significant cloud cover/debris, therefore keeping temperatures sub 80F in NYC. So the 80F streak, IMO, is mostly due to the very dry pattern over the past month. 500mb heights have actually averaged below normal since mid July. Of course this is the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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