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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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Classic developing summer El Nino pattern where NYC finishes with a warmer departure

than Chicago. Seasonal composites based on ENSO climatology can often identify the

departure anomaly regions, but the magnitude of the departure can be highly variable.

 

Last winter was a perfect example of this with a back loaded weak El Nino that went off

the charts on the magnitude late winter snow and cold .

 

 

NYC

 

6/15...-0.2

7/15..+2.3

8/15..+3.9 so far

 

ORD

 

6/15...-1.6

7/15...-1.7

8/15...+0.2...so far

 

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Wow 103. Is that the highest departure high of all time?

Not close, It'd be one of the 70+ degree record highs in Dec, Jan or Feb. Or mid 80s rec highs in late March..or mid 90s rec high in early-mid Apr.

30-40 degree departures from norm.

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Outstanding, the GFS takes Erika from the Bahamas up the entire East Coast of Florida and up through Georgia, with tropical moisture streaming up the coast into our area as the system stalls in Georgia for days.

We could use the rains and and no local damage that way either.

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The GGEM is almost a carbon copy of Irene. Landfall near OBX and then straight up the coast.

Irene approached NC from the SE, it looks similar to Floyd actually with it's proximity to Florida. Either way, we'd be very hard pressed to have Erika ride this far north with what is modeled to be overhead.
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NYC 80 (+) Days 2015
 
April: 1
May: 18
Jun: 16
Jul: 29
Aug:  21 (so far)

 

 

 

54 of 56 days at or above 80 central park.  79 on Jul 9 , 74 July 4th.  45 straight with today.  

 

 

57 of 60 days and 48 straight

Aug: 26

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Thanks for posting these numbers because its evidence that we arent just running a little above normal..its pretty significant and these numbers should rise a little

All these stations are right along the coast, and far east, where departures have been warmer. 

 

If you look farther west, Cleveland OH is -1.1F for August. Most places in PA and NY are somewhere in the middle, with a departure right around average. That's the case here in the Poconos where August, and the entire summer, are running right around normal.

 

I don't see the departures going up too much more. Wednesday-Friday is a definite cool down, and then there's only a few days left in the month for the warmer air. We should end up right about where we are.

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