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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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It's weird how this summer has been so warm on the coast yet near normal in the interior. Here in the Poconos, it was 74F today with a low of 52F expected tonight. We should be in the upper 60s to low 70s for the rest of the week with lows a few degrees on either side of 50F.

Seems as if fronts have had a hard time penetrating the coast. May have to do with warm SSTs offshore.

the NMME did a good job

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

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the NMME did a good job

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

This had the general idea right in terms of anomaly distribution but was biased warm. August has been significantly below normal from AK to central Canada (totally wrong here) to much of the northern and central Plains and Midwest (model saw this a bit). A lot of these areas are -1 to -2. The pattern looks like a fairly typical -EPO look in the States with most of the cold in the middle and warmer on the coasts.

NYC has been an island of warmth in a sea of CONUS cool. Our house in the Poconos is running around average for August and slightly below average for the summer; June was -2 to -3 in much of the interior Northeast and New England compared to -0.5 in Central Park.

Radiational cooling nights have also made the urban centers warmer than the surrounding countryside since this summer has had little in the way of clouds and rain. I've noticed quite a few nights where NYC has had a low in the mid 70s, Dobbs Ferry has been in the upper 60s, and our Poconos house in the mid to upper 50s. That's more than the usual difference of 5 degrees between Dobbs and NYC, 10 degrees between Poconos and NYC.

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This had the general idea right in terms of anomaly distribution but was biased warm. August has been significantly below normal from AK to central Canada (totally wrong here) to much of the northern and central Plains and Midwest (model saw this a bit). A lot of these areas are -1 to -2. The pattern looks like a fairly typical -EPO look in the States with most of the cold in the middle and warmer on the coasts.

NYC has been an island of warmth in a sea of CONUS cool. Our house in the Poconos is running around average for August and slightly below average for the summer; June was -2 to -3 in much of the interior Northeast and New England compared to -0.5 in Central Park.

Radiational cooling nights have also made the urban centers warmer than the surrounding countryside since this summer has had little in the way of clouds and rain. I've noticed quite a few nights where NYC has had a low in the mid 70s, Dobbs Ferry has been in the upper 60s, and our Poconos house in the mid to upper 50s. That's more than the usual difference of 5 degrees between Dobbs and NYC, 10 degrees between Poconos and NYC.

I have noticed at times and several times that is a 20 degree morning difference in temps here in northeast Pa and in NYC. Maybe this is what will be the case in a strong el nino this winter

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