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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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For KNYC, I don't see a single Aug where everyday had a high of 80+. The most is 29 in 1938  & 1932.  (The avg is 21)

This Aug is on pace to be the first.

 

In fact its happened in July only 1 time.

 

Also the most in a yr is 106 in 1991 (lots of incomplete data in earlier 20th century and back though)

If the forecast for the rest of Aug hold true, and we reach the 30 yr avg for Sept of 10 we'd reach that 106 mark. An above avg Sept and we set a new record easy. 

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For KNYC, I don't see a single Aug where everyday had a high of 80+. The most is 29 in 1938  & 1932.  (The avg is 21)

This Aug is on pace to be the first.

 

In fact its happened in July only 1 time.

 

Also the most in a yr is 106 in 1991 (lots of incomplete data in earlier 20th century and back though)

If the forecast for the rest of Aug hold true, and we reach the 30 yr avg for Sept of 10 we'd reach that 106 mark. An above avg Sept and we set a new record easy. 

The GFS has truckloads of heat coming in Sept. with 500mb's above normal for the entire month.    Probably 5-10 90deg. days coming with this setup (don't forget the ridiculous SST's also) for the month.    Kiss Sept. 1961 out of the almanac's best for NYC.

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The GFS has truckloads of heat coming in Sept. with 500mb's above normal for the entire month. Probably 5-10 90deg. days coming with this setup (don't forget the ridiculous SST's also) for the month. Kiss Sept. 1961 out of the almanac's best for NYC.

The GFS goes out til about the 9th of September, were you talking about the Euro weeklies? (I guess it's possible you extrapolated hour 384 of the GFS for another 3 weeks, always a slam dunk). It does look warm though to start September but anomalously warm SST's won't have anything to do with getting you to 90+ degrees.
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The heat really overperformed this month for being so close to a mean trough position.

We have seen this several times in recent years with a warm trough due to the lack of

any cool air around. The very warm SST's and ridge to the east helped our cause.

 

 

 

 

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Can we start our own tropical theead? 00z Euro was certainly interesting. Major near the SC coast.

Yeah, start one please. The 06 GFS actually has the low near the benchmark and close enough to warrant monitoring (it's wayyyyyyyyy out there obviously, but it's not like we have other things to discuss, this weather is sinfully boring for those who don't drool at the prospect of some heat and humidity)
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For KNYC, I don't see a single Aug where everyday had a high of 80+. The most is 29 in 1938 & 1932. (The avg is 21)

This Aug is on pace to be the first.

In fact its happened in July only 1 time.

Also the most in a yr is 106 in 1991 (lots of incomplete data in earlier 20th century and back though)

If the forecast for the rest of Aug hold true, and we reach the 30 yr avg for Sept of 10 we'd reach that 106 mark. An above avg Sept and we set a new record easy.

Nice job on the stats. Despite any real heat it's just been straight up warm. Almost like we dropped 10 degrees in latitude.

And yes open the tropical thread

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Nice job on the stats. Despite any real heat it's just been straight up warm. Almost like we dropped 10 degrees in latitude.

And yes open the tropical thread

Exactly, I feel like I live in coastal NC with these warm sticky days and a string of 75+ degree lows (there have been tons of them this summer)
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For KNYC, I don't see a single Aug where everyday had a high of 80+. The most is 29 in 1938 & 1932. (The avg is 21)

This Aug is on pace to be the first.

In fact its happened in July only 1 time.

Also the most in a yr is 106 in 1991 (lots of incomplete data in earlier 20th century and back though)

If the forecast for the rest of Aug hold true, and we reach the 30 yr avg for Sept of 10 we'd reach that 106 mark. An above avg Sept and we set a new record easy.

Nice info, thanks. These are not the type of records I look forward to, that's for sure.

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The GFS goes out til about the 9th of September, were you talking about the Euro weeklies? (I guess it's possible you extrapolated hour 384 of the GFS for another 3 weeks, always a slam dunk). It does look warm though to start September but anomalously warm SST's won't have anything to do with getting you to 90+ degrees.

You are right.  I should have mentioned I was using the CFSv2 weeklies for the entire month.   But GFS does go bonkers in the first 10 days of month including a drunken TS that must be in a Sandy like trance, as it  threatens the coast on the HolidayWeekend with a left-handed turn.  What! Another 100 years storm so soon.  Sandy "We hardly missed you".  Given our precarious economic state----will this be the exogenous event that starts the real Depression?   lol

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You are right. I should have mentioned I was using the CFSv2 weeklies for the entire month. But GFS does go bonkers in the first 10 days of month including a drunken TS that must be in a Sandy like trance, as it threatens the coast on the HolidayWeekend with a left-handed turn. What! Another 100 years storm so soon. Sandy "We hardly missed you". Given our precarious economic state----will this be the exogenous event that starts the real Depression? lol

Is it cold of me to wish we get smoked again? Out of all severe weather events, Hurricanes are my favorite and not exactly a dime a dozen here.
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The GFS has truckloads of heat coming in Sept. with 500mb's above normal for the entire month. Probably 5-10 90deg. days coming with this setup (don't forget the ridiculous SST's also) for the month. Kiss Sept. 1961 out of the almanac's best for NYC.

Please stop these kinda of posts. The gfs barely gets through the first 3rd of september. Post facts, leave the hyperbole somewhere else.

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I was just stating that the GEFS does show an above average pattern.

Ok? My comment was referring to the claim that the gfs shows above normal temps throughout september. We arent extrapolating gfs out another 21 days here. Youre more than welcome to in the banter thread.

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For KNYC, I don't see a single Aug where everyday had a high of 80+. The most is 29 in 1938  & 1932.  (The avg is 21)

This Aug is on pace to be the first.

 

In fact its happened in July only 1 time.

 

Also the most in a yr is 106 in 1991 (lots of incomplete data in earlier 20th century and back though)

If the forecast for the rest of Aug hold true, and we reach the 30 yr avg for Sept of 10 we'd reach that 106 mark. An above avg Sept and we set a new record easy. 

I counted 108 for 1944...

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