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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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BURN....

 

 

Not quite. If one looks beyond the confines of NYC itself, one would find that the vast majority of the United States is running normal to cooler than normal for August, and in fact, most of the suburbia stations in PA/NJ will finish August fairly close to normal, especially after at least 3 days of slightly negative departures this week. Many stations are only running around +0.5 to +1.5 in suburbia, and by the end of the month, most of us in suburbia will be 0 to +1. My official forecast in the main board thread actually called for a warmer than normal August in DCA and the Mid-Atlantic, and departures around -0.5 in NYC/BOS, essentially near normal. While the urban centers themselves will be very warm due to the lack of radiational cooling, most in our area won't be far from normal. So in my opinion, the nationwide ideas verified, and locally, it was an "Ok" forecast for most. The urban centers of NYC like LGA/NYC/JFK/EWR will be a significant bust.

 

 

24eb6li.png

 

 

Augusts 2002/2009 will finish significantly warmer than this month for the Northeast region as a whole:

 

m97lhs.png

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Not quite. If one looks beyond the confines of NYC itself, one would find that the vast majority of the United States is running normal to cooler than normal for August, and in fact, most of the suburbia stations in PA/NJ will finish August fairly close to normal, especially after at least 3 days of slightly negative departures this week. Many stations are only running around +0.5 to +1.5 in suburbia, and by the end of the month, most of us in suburbia will be 0 to +1. My official forecast in the main board thread actually called for a warmer than normal August in DCA and the Mid-Atlantic, and departures around -0.5 in NYC/BOS, essentially near normal. While the urban centers themselves will be very warm due to the lack of radiational cooling, most in our area won't be far from normal. So in my opinion, the nationwide ideas verified, and locally, it was an "Ok" forecast for most. The urban centers of NYC like LGA/NYC/JFK/EWR will be a significant bust.

 

 

24eb6li.png

 

 

Augusts 2002/2009 will finish significantly warmer than this month for the Northeast region as a whole:

 

m97lhs.png

 

That is right. It's just that the entire NE from NJ was above normal on average.

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Explain my 27 90+ readings this summer then?

  Almost no record highs this summer and warm nighttime minimums (especially in the UHI areas).   Above average for August yes, but nothing really that remarkable.  With that said, I was on the cooler train of recent Augusts so the warmth and lack of rain has been a bit surprising to me.   (I do like that 02 and 09 had warm Augusts!)

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  Almost no record highs this summer and warm nighttime minimums (especially in the UHI areas).   Above average for August yes, but nothing really that remarkable.  With that said, I was on the cooler train of recent Augusts so the warmth and lack of rain has been a bit surprising to me.   (I do like that 02 and 09 had warm Augusts!)

 

Additionally, 27 90F days is only representative for an extremely small percentage of the area. Most of us are running near or slightly below normal on 90F days this summer. I have 14 so far. 6 in August, 4 July, 3 June, and 1 May. This week will have none. Not very impressive. I still consider our last "real" hot month to be July 2013, during which I recorded 10 90 degree days, with a maximum temperature of 96.5F; an impressive summer month. My high for this summer is 94.0F so far. Certainly a warmer summer than last year (2014), but the overall picture will be just slightly above normal for most (JJA 0 to +1).

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It's been consistently warm to hot but not a scorcher.

Will be interesting to see how hot it gets into early September. The only signs I've seen of summer coming to an end is the loss of daylight.

would think we'd flip to wetter courtesy of the nino sooner rather than later.   In 2002, we were dry until around Labor Day when a series of noreasters hit and it turned wet quite quickly.

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As far as comfort is concerned, the difference between the city and the mid to outer suburbs has been pretty stark this summer. Lower than normal soil moisture and the lack of our usual humid airmasses has contributed to some pretty high diurnal ranges just outside of the cities. Definitely a very welcomed change of departure given all the sticky summers we've had the last 10+ years. I definitely haven't had to drive too far to escape the hot nights we've been having in Brooklyn this summer.

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Actually most of us are not akin to colts ne k temperature. ..I would day new brunswick is very representative of new jersey and they have a ton of 90s

 

 

Incorrect. It would benefit you to conduct fact checking prior to making assertions.

 

The following are COOP stations throughout suburban and rural NJ. All of them are 20 or less 90F days. Generally near normal. New Brunswick is the hottest station in the state by far, aside from Newark, and possibly anyone living in the urban sections of Essex/Union Counties. However, the vast majority of NJ is not adjacent to highway/urban landscape.

 

 

Trenton, NJ: 20

Atlantic City Airport, NJ: 16

Millville, NJ: 14

Hammonton, NJ: 18

Sussex, NJ: 8

Wertsville (Hunterdon County), NJ: 11

Flemington, NJ: 16

Belvidere Bridge, NJ: 5

Cape May, NJ: 9

Wilmington, DE: 11

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Where is Newark Somerville Plainfield Jersey City Belle Mead on that list....seems skewed rural and shore....Trenton has 20 which is alot...the downplaying of above normal is humorous...oh its above normal but not THAT above normal...if the situation is reversed everyone would be cheering a -1...july was way above normal for me

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Where is Newark Somerville Plainfield Jersey City Belle Mead on that list....seems skewed rural and shore....Trenton has 20 which is alot...the downplaying of above normal is humorous...oh its above normal but not THAT above normal...if the situation is reversed everyone would be cheering a -1...july was way above normal for me

 

 

Somerville has 15. Newark as we already know has 28. Those other stations are not COOP or NOAA operated.

 

Actually, the definition of skewed would be only posting urban stations, given the vast majority of NJ is suburban or rural. It's only the immediate area around PHL, and the NE corridor from New B. through Essex/Union/Hudson Counties that are very urbanized.

 

No one is downplaying; these are simply facts. And the difference between urban centers and the rest of the area has been quite significant in both 90F days and temperature departures.

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There's even a significant difference between Newark and NYC due to radiational cooling. If meteorological summer ended today:

Newark's summer departure: +1.26

Central Park: +1.9

Look at that NWS graphic that was posted, though. Bridgeport which radiates much better than the park is ranking as the warmest August on record so far.

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Where is Newark Somerville Plainfield Jersey City Belle Mead on that list....seems skewed rural and shore....Trenton has 20 which is alot...the downplaying of above normal is humorous...oh its above normal but not THAT above normal...if the situation is reversed everyone would be cheering a -1...july was way above normal for me

+1

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Look at that NWS graphic that was posted, though. Bridgeport which radiates much better than the park is ranking as the warmest August on record so far.

 

 

Yes, see that nationwide anomaly map I posted on the last page. New England had a very warm August, as most of the cool was directed in the Lakes/OH Valley. Thus, longitude made a significant difference. PA/NJ had much cooler departures than those further NE. Not disputing that NYC northeastward had an extremely warm August thus far, driven largely by high humidity.

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Where is Newark Somerville Plainfield Jersey City Belle Mead on that list....seems skewed rural and shore....Trenton has 20 which is alot...the downplaying of above normal is humorous...oh its above normal but not THAT above normal...if the situation is reversed everyone would be cheering a -1...july was way above normal for me

How many does trenton avg?

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