Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Central Park is currently one of the warmest stations relative to normal for the United States so far this month. It's +3.6 is even higher than Seattle at +3.1 and Phoenix at +3.5. The west and east coasts have been warm, while the majority of the nation has been normal to cooler than normal, from the Rockies eastward to the Appalachains.

 

 

wgxr47.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking ahead at the latest guidance - the next week to two weeks looks to  remain overall above normal with a couple of  slightly below normal possible mid week followed with a late season surge of heat on/around Aug 30 possible.  Averages are falling but August should end solidly positive for most stations +2 to +3. Transient trough moves through this week with wed-thu potential below normal in the metro areas (it'll be interesting to see how departures stack up).  Ridge builds back east and the ECM and GFS indicate stronger warmth returns by next weekend with some persistent indication of 850s between 15 and 18c  which could yield some 90 degree readings.  Tendency for low pressure under the ridge/southeast could create some onshore flow at times.  What should become Erika could influence the forecast toards early Sep.  

 

8/24 - 8/25: Humid / warm

8/26 - 8/28 : Temps near or slightly below normal (80s streak should continue)

8/29 - 9/4 : Above to much above normal.  Potential heat (90 degree +) peaking 8/30 - 9/2..

9/5 - beyond: Above normal continues, tropical influence?  or drier pattern continues?

 

test8.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NYC is on track for a top ten warmest August. NYC is currently at 79.2 with enough warmth

in the forecast to maintain a finish above 77.7. The +3.6 so far is the same as my closest

station JFK.

 

80.3...1980

79.7...2005

78.8...1988

78.7...2001

78.5...1995

78.2...1938

78.1...1955

78.0...1939

77.8...1944

77.7...2002/1983

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NYC is on track for a top ten warmest August. NYC is currently at 79.2 with enough warmth

in the forecast to maintain a finish above 77.7. The +3.6 so far is the same as my closest

station JFK.

80.3...1980

79.7...2005

78.8...1988

78.7...2001

78.5...1995

78.2...1938

78.1...1955

78.0...1939

77.8...1944

77.7...2002/1983

NWS tweeted that KNYC is the third warmest on record so far. Same as LGA. Warmest on record for JFK. Newark 5th.

Amazing after this February.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS tweeted that KNYC is the third warmest on record so far. Same as LGA. Warmest on record for JFK. Newark 5th.

Amazing after this February.

 

It really shows how great an outlier the 3rd coldest February was. We quickly got back to business as usual 

with the 2nd warmest May and now a top ten warmest August.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not surprisingly, the warm El Nino Augusts such as 2002 and 2009 featured a +EPO overall, while the cooler Augusts such as 1982 and 1986 featured a negative EPO. The latter category is likely where 2015 will fall given the current projections for the EPO. This summer, July looks like it will be the warmest month relative to normal. My confidence is high on a cooler than normal August, and this should yield a summer JJA very close to normal temperature wise in our area.

bump
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...