SnoSki14 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Meanwhile the gfs gives us nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Sickest thunderstorm in years here. Large trees and limbs down everywhere. Power is out. Heard what I presume to have been large hail hitting the house but it also could have been branches bouncing off. There was enough lightning to read by. Insane storm. It looks like a bomb went off. Perfect description. Amazed by what seemed liked continuous lightning. Neighborhood is littered with decent sized branches and leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The 0z GFS is mostly a NYC and east event as the low doesn't track as far north as the Euro. Will probably need to wait until we get closer to know the exact track and placement of best warm frontal overrunning. The GFS 4 inch plus jackpot is a few miles SE of MTP. 06z GFS is totally different then the euro now, has no rain and brings the low way ots. We need the rain hopefully the euro wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 That was some of the loudest thunder ive ever heard...wow. Bluewave, is the Euro slowing down a bit, or was this always a later friday/saturday chance? I havent paid much attention but i thought a few days ago it looked like thurs into fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 That was some of the loudest thunder ive ever heard...wow. Bluewave, is the Euro slowing down a bit, or was this always a later friday/saturday chance? I havent paid much attention but i thought a few days ago it looked like thurs into fri. The euro moves rain into the area Friday morning and doesn't stop until 15z Saturday. Seems like it has slowed down the departure of the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The euro moves rain into the area Friday morning and doesn't stop until 15z Saturday. Seems like it has slowed down the departure of the rain Bleh. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Please tell me Fri-Sat storms stay south. The Mt Bike World Cup races are on Saturday in the Catskills and my daughter is racing. She'll be heartbroken after training for months if she gets rained out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I must have just missed the best stuff. Tons of lightning. Only 0.10" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Parts of Port Jeff - Mt. Sinai - Miller Place look like a war zone...the scent of freshly cracked trees is in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Looks like long island got pounded. I woke up around 3:45 to take a bathroom trip and i saw 3-4 flashes. I tried to stay up but couldnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Crazy 80 mph winds on KBOX radar for SEMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Picked up 0.24" of rain from the storms this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Euro was over-done a week ago with its hurricane threat and this run for Friday appears to be an outlier as well with no ensemble support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Euro was over-done a week ago with its hurricane threat and this run for Friday appears to be an outlier as well with no ensemble support... Better rethink that. The 00z EPS mean was definitely more focused towards Philly and DC but it was plenty wet for NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Better rethink that. The 00z EPS mean was definitely more focused towards Philly and DC but it was plenty wet for NYC as well. It was, but not 3-6 inches wet like the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Lots of lighting, but thunder wasn't too bad, it was strong but not those loud cracks. Only a measly .07 inches of rain. Suns out now with blue skies. Dewpoint 66 Temp 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 missed the storms here, .10 or so--too bad, looks like the event of the summer so far. HRRR had it last night and it was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 Im mad those storms blew up over eastern long island like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 It was, but not 3-6 inches wet like the op If an ensemble mean showed 3-6" of rain I would tell you to start building the ark now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Im mad those storms blew up over eastern long island like that. One of the most unstable soundings that I have seen at that time of day over Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 fwiw the canadian came south and scrapes us with light amounts. the euro is a northern outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Sickest thunderstorm in years here. Large trees and limbs down everywhere. Power is out. Heard what I presume to have been large hail hitting the house but it also could have been branches bouncing off. There was enough lightning to read by. Insane storm. It looks like a bomb went off. Wow, and I slept through the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Had some strong thunderstorms overnight that woke me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 One of the most unstable soundings that I have seen at that time of day over Suffolk. 06_RAP_002_40.92,-72.85_skewt_ML.gif Yeah very unstable. It was a decent thunderstorm here vivid lightning and thunder but nothing like eastern LI and SNE got hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Was woken up at 3:45 by one of the loudest thunder booms I have ever heard in midtown Manhattan. After that it was continuous flashes of light and more thunder. Sounded/looked like a warzone for a good 10 minutes. Rain was coming down hard too for a few minutes, sounded like hail pelting the window, but perhaps the rain was just that hard. Great storm overall and the first good storm I have gotten to watch from 10 stories up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yeah very unstable. It was a decent thunderstorm here vivid lightning and thunder but nothing like eastern LI and SNE got hit pretty good. 42,000 on Long Island without power after a thunderstorm event ranks pretty high on the list. http://www.newsday.com/news/weather/thunderstorm-hits-long-island-at-rush-hour-knocks-out-power-to-thousands-1.10705170 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The NAM has got the heavy rainfall. It's just a matter of how far north it gets to be resolved in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The NAM has got the heavy rainfall. It's just a matter of how far north it gets to be resolved in later runs. f84.gif at that range i'd want the nam to be in upstate ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I think this may end up hitting Southern areas the hardest but the NAM does tug the circulation North in response to the mid-level centers closing off South of Long Island. You can see it clearly on the ECMWF 500mb vorticy graphics. The GFS on the other hand digs the trough much further South and by the time the energy gets tugged North it's too late. The GGEM on the other hand is pretty far North with the energy at H5 but doesn't close off like the Euro does, thus we get clipped by the initial system and then it blows up off offshore as there is no component to tug it back to the coast. Generally these events tend to end up further North than predicted 72 hours out. I hope the entire area receives a drenching rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The storms that rolled through LI today were classic. They were strong once they got to Newark, NJ and east with gusts past 50mph recorded, but once they crossed eastern Nassau, they strengthened to very severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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