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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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I think b/c of missing data they don't include the 1944 streak.

For example the high temp for 8/2/1944 is missing. That would interrupt the streak. The low was 70 with .36 rain. the next day had rain too.

by the 4th it was 100 degrees though.

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I think b/c of missing data they don't include the 1944 streak.

For example the high temp for 8/2/1944 is missing. That would interrupt the streak. The low was 70 with .36 rain. the next day had rain too.

by the 4th it was 100 degrees though.

in 2002 I printed the daily's from the Utah Climate center and it has a max of 81 for the 2nd....................

............................................................................................................................

 

post-343-0-36950000-1440250648_thumb.gif

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81° was the high temperature on August 2,1944. From the NCDC:

 

NYC_August_2_1944.jpg

back in 1944 the official obs site was near Battery Park...There is an official daily weather log from that time and it's probably in the Upton office library...The last time I was there (25 years ago) I looked thru some years and wrote down some info...I'm not sure whether Central Park had a daily log and if so is it in the Upton library...Battery Park obs were cooler during the day being right on the water....It was in the upper 90's instead of 100's...

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Another amazing weekend weather-wise.  92% of weekend days since Easter have been nice.  What a summer this has been and continues to be.  Not the blazing hot but to me a top 10...  

 

11AM Roundup

 

HPN: 76

TBE: 77

NYC: 76

EWR: 79

LGA: 77

JFK:  79

ISP: 77

New Brunswick: 79

BLM: 77

TTN: 76

PHL: 80

ACY:80

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so far the lowest August minimum is 67...65 is the record...61 days is the record for 70+ min days set in 1908 off the top of my head...

 

courtesy of you

most and least days with a minimum 70 or higher...

year...amount...

61 in 1906

60 in 2005

54 in 2010

54 in 1908

52 in 1980

51 in 2013

47 in 2012

46 in 1876

46 in 1959

most consecutive...

22 in 2010

22 in 1980

21 in 1988

19 in 2013

18 in 1995

17 in 1906

17 in 1979

16 in 1908

16 in 1984

least amount...

..8 in 1962

11 in 1946

13 in 1950

14 in 1963

14 in 1992

16 in 1902

17 in 1888

17 in 1965

17 in 1967

18 in 2009

18 in 1954

least consecutive...

2 in 1962

3 in 1946

3 in 1974

4 in 1934

4 in 1936

4 in 1942

4 in 1943

4 in 1995

4 in 1958

4 in 1964

4 in 1965

4 in 1976

4 in 1986

4 in 1992

4 in 2000

records since 1930 with some earlier years added...

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NYC 80 (+) Days 2015
 
April: 1
May: 18
Jun: 16
Jul: 29
Aug:  21 (so far)

 

 

 

so far the lowest August minimum is 67...65 is the record...61 days is the record for 70+ min days set in 1908 off the top of my head...

 

I wonder what the record is for more 70 degree lows than 90 degree highs in a season is?

It looks like NYC has 41 mins at or above at or above above 70 to 11 maxes at or  above 90.

So we get the 70 mins ahead of 90 maxes by 30 days so far.

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Another amazing weekend weather-wise.  92% of weekend days since Easter have been nice.  What a summer this has been and continues to be.  Not the blazing hot but to me a top 10...  

 

11AM Roundup

 

HPN: 76

TBE: 77

NYC: 76

EWR: 79

LGA: 77

JFK:  79

ISP: 77

New Brunswick: 79

BLM: 77

TTN: 76

PHL: 80

ACY:80

 

This weather has also been very good for the shore communities as well, and I am sure it is welcomed for them. They should come away with a great season when all is said and done.

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I wonder what the record is for more 70 degree lows than 90 degree highs in a season is?

It looks like NYC has 41 mins at or above at or above above 70 to 11 maxes at or  above 90.

So we get the 70 mins ahead of 90 maxes by 30 days so far.

2005...23 90 max...60 70 min...+37

2006.....8 90 max...41 70 min...+33

1906...10 90 max...61 70 min...+51

1908...11 90 max...54 70 min...+43

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back in 1944 the official obs site was near Battery Park...There is an official daily weather log from that time and it's probably in the Upton office library...The last time I was there (25 years ago) I looked thru some years and wrote down some info...I'm not sure whether Central Park had a daily log and if so is it in the Upton library...Battery Park obs were cooler during the day being right on the water....It was in the upper 90's instead of 100's...

In that case, as I forgot when the switch took place, the high was only 78° on August 2:

 

Battery_NYC_August_1944.jpg

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the switch took place on January 1st 1961...

Thanks, Uncle W. That explains why NWS tweeted that the current streak is the longest on record. Of course, if Central Park were used, as is the case today, the current streak would still be short of the 1944 one. Nevertheless, it is an impressive outcome and the warm August in the face of strengthening El Niño is quite remarkable. Hopefully, as in 2002 and 2009, a snowy winter will follow. Given WSI's point about the July AO and winter blocking, perhaps this is just another signal of a decent winter. In any case, we're moving through an interesting period with the possibility of a near record to possible record El Niño coupled with the potential for a lot of blocking.

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Thanks, Uncle W. That explains why NWS tweeted that the current streak is the longest on record. Of course, if Central Park were used, as is the case today, the current streak would still be short of the 1944 one. Nevertheless, it is an impressive outcome and the warm August in the face of strengthening El Niño is quite remarkable. Hopefully, as in 2002 and 2009, a snowy winter will follow. Given WSI's point about the July AO and winter blocking, perhaps this is just another signal of a decent winter. In any case, we're moving through an interesting period with the possibility of a near record to possible record El Niño coupled with the potential for a lot of blocking.

so far this summer the nao is negative...Hopefully it continues into the winter...things can change between now and December for better or worse...

nao.sprd2.gif

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the switch took place on January 1st 1961...

August 1944 was surely impressive with 8 straight days of 90-degree weather. We may be having a relatively warm August at +3.7F, but Central Park has only had 4 straight days of 90-degree weather. At this point, the potential for 90s is really fading; today was 84/69, and the 7-day forecast has Monday at the warmest day at 86F. That brings us to August 29th, and it's rare to get more than 2-3 more 90-degree days at that point in the season. We should end up slightly below average for 90s in Central Park, although the summer will probably finish around +1.5F temperature departure. 

 

The beat goes on on the latest 12z guidance with the overall warm pattern continuing.  Some  embedded chances at 90 in the warmer spots next week  and with the continued indication of a hot start to sep.

 

 

I don't really see any heat coming. NWS shows highs in the 82-84F from Tuesday-Friday at Central Park, with a couple warmer days in the mid 80s on Monday and next Saturday. A large trough is slowly moving east as a 990mb low bombs out over Manitoba and Ontario...850s drop to around 11C Tuesday-Thursday. Although most of the cold weather,10-20F below average, is in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest (Fargo ND has a projected low of 46F Monday night), we still get some impact from that trough. I'm seeing a lot of days around 82/67 or so in the Park, so basically around average. Suburbs that radiate well should get into the upper 50s Wednesday night and Thursday night without any trouble.

 

The week might average +1 due to the warmth Monday ahead of that low, but I think the opportunity for 90s is rapidly closing. Lowering sun angle and 850s around 10C will make it hard to get higher than the low to mid 80s. I'd be genuinely surprised if Central Park records more than 4 additional 90-degree days. ECM and GFS both show a brief hot spell around September 1st, but losing the next week to average temperatures brings us towards the end of "heat wave season."

 

It's pretty clear the meat of summer is well past with some autumnal nights upcoming, especially in suburbs that can radiate well under clear conditions. Up here in the Poconos, we're expecting upper 40s later in the coming week. It was around 50F last night, and the forecast low is a comfortable 55F here tonight. 

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August 1944 was surely impressive with 8 straight days of 90-degree weather. We may be having a relatively warm August at +3.7F, but Central Park has only had 4 straight days of 90-degree weather. At this point, the potential for 90s is really fading; today was 84/69, and the 7-day forecast has Monday at the warmest day at 86F. That brings us to August 29th, and it's rare to get more than 2-3 more 90-degree days at that point in the season. We should end up slightly below average for 90s in Central Park, although the summer will probably finish around +1.5F temperature departure. 

 

I don't really see any heat coming. NWS shows highs in the 82-84F from Tuesday-Friday at Central Park, with a couple warmer days in the mid 80s on Monday and next Saturday. A large trough is slowly moving east as a 990mb low bombs out over Manitoba and Ontario...850s drop to around 11C Tuesday-Thursday. Although most of the cold weather,10-20F below average, is in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest (Fargo ND has a projected low of 46F Monday night), we still get some impact from that trough. I'm seeing a lot of days around 82/67 or so in the Park, so basically around average. Suburbs that radiate well should get into the upper 50s Wednesday night and Thursday night without any trouble.

 

The week might average +1 due to the warmth Monday ahead of that low, but I think the opportunity for 90s is rapidly closing. Lowering sun angle and 850s around 10C will make it hard to get higher than the low to mid 80s. I'd be genuinely surprised if Central Park records more than 4 additional 90-degree days. ECM and GFS both show a brief hot spell around September 1st, but losing the next week to average temperatures brings us towards the end of "heat wave season."

 

It's pretty clear the meat of summer is well past with some autumnal nights upcoming, especially in suburbs that can radiate well under clear conditions. Up here in the Poconos, we're expecting upper 40s later in the coming week. It was around 50F last night, and the forecast low is a comfortable 55F here tonight. 

 

At this rate central park will fiinish the summer +2 (+).  The park has had lower amount of 90 days than surrounding metro locals similar to 2006.  Many other spots had multi 90 degree days this summer.  But for sure its ben steady warmth and not blazing bouts of heat.  Central park and points north (by you) will certainly have the lowest chance of 90s this week but other metro areas could get there Monday.  Been riding above normal with recent dryness and sun filled days.  Still even the confines of the cool park will continue above normal.  850s looks 10 - 15 most of this week and gfs and ecm build in 15 - 18c 850s by 8/30 and it looks poised to continue into early Sep..

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