SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Overnight guidance with an interesting split between the warmer GFS and more troughy ECM for the 8/24 - 8/26 period. We've seen this disagreement recently with a solution more towards the warmer eventually playing out. GFS/ECM will prove to have been too hot in the 8/21 - 8/23 timeframe from a few days ago, thanks in part to hung up front but steamy few days in route. Overall it continues to look above normal with any trough transient and any cooling more focused to the north as heights continue to bounce up into the mid section and EC with troughing persistent into the WC. If not arm to hot days its by humid southerly flow over the next week or so. The one thing is it does in fact look wetter beginning tomorrow. 8/18 : widespread 90s continues 8/19 - 8/22 : Storms, potential heavy rain. Hung up front. Humid 8/23 - 8/25 : Warmer than normal , potential for 90s in warmer spots 8/24 8/26 - beyond : Overall warmer than normal, potential late Aug heat (8/27) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Overnight guidance with an interesting split between the warmer GFS and more troughy ECM for the 8/24 - 8/26 period. We've seen this disagreement recently with a solution more towards the warmer eventually playing out. GFS/ECM will prove to have been too hot in the 8/21 - 8/23 timeframe from a few days ago, thanks in part to hung up front but steamy few days in route. Overall it continues to look above normal with any trough transient and any cooling more focused to the north as heights continue to bounce up into the mid section and EC with troughing persistent into the WC. If not arm to hot days its by humid southerly flow over the next week or so. The one thing is it does in fact look wetter beginning tomorrow. 8/18 : widespread 90s continues 8/19 - 8/22 : Storms, potential heavy rain. Hung up front. Humid 8/23 - 8/25 : Warmer than normal , potential for 90s in warmer spots 8/24 8/26 - beyond : Overall warmer than normal, potential late Aug heat (8/27) good summary. Weenie question, but I'm camping Thur-Sun in South central CT-any guesses as to where the front hangs up during that time. (bringing my tarp!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Overnight guidance with an interesting split between the warmer GFS and more troughy ECM for the 8/24 - 8/26 period. We've seen this disagreement recently with a solution more towards the warmer eventually playing out. GFS/ECM will prove to have been too hot in the 8/21 - 8/23 timeframe from a few days ago, thanks in part to hung up front but steamy few days in route. Overall it continues to look above normal with any trough transient and any cooling more focused to the north as heights continue to bounce up into the mid section and EC with troughing persistent into the WC. If not arm to hot days its by humid southerly flow over the next week or so. The one thing is it does in fact look wetter beginning tomorrow. 8/18 : widespread 90s continues 8/19 - 8/22 : Storms, potential heavy rain. Hung up front. Humid 8/23 - 8/25 : Warmer than normal , potential for 90s in warmer spots 8/24 8/26 - beyond : Overall warmer than normal, potential late Aug heat (8/27) the EPS has a much flatter trough. the op run has been too aggressive with ne canadian troughs all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 good summary. Weenie question, but I'm camping Thur-Sun in South central CT-any guesses as to where the front hangs up during that time. (bringing my tarp!) Wish i knew Brian. Either way im sure youll have fun and a decent amount of time without rain. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 the EPS has a much flatter trough. the op run has been too aggressive with ne canadian troughs all summer True, itll be interesting to see how warm we can get for August (overall monthly departures) 11AM ROund up HPN: 84 TEB: 82 NYC: 85 EWR: 87 LGA: 86 JFK: 82 ISP: 80 New Brunswick: 86 BLM: 84 TTN: 82 PHL: 83 ACY: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We've got a bingo. The general steering currents suggest that this should be a highly impact-full system for at least the islands, and then possibly other land masses down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Noon Roundup HPN: 87 TEB: 87 NYC: 86 EWR: 88 LGA 87 JFK: 83 ISP: 84 New Brunswick: 87 BLM: 86 TTN: 85 PHL: 86 ACY: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 ewr has a se wind so 88 might be close to the high today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 We've got a bingo. The general steering currents suggest that this should be a highly impact-full system for at least the islands, and then possibly other land masses down the road. They need it down there. Pretty bad drought occuring right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Up to 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Up to 90F. Just hit 89. Where in Union are you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 89 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We've got a bingo. The general steering currents suggest that this should be a highly impact-full system for at least the islands, and then possibly other land masses down the road. I haven't looked at this threat on guidanxe but you'd imagine the steering currents are arguing west maybe this could come in south of the bigger islands. Anyway it'll be interesting to see where it tracks over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Just hit 89. Where in Union are you ? Near Stop and Shop at Union Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 ewr has a se wind so 88 might be close to the high today At 89 on the hour. park and LGA are at 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 1PM in the city HPN: 88 NYC: 88 EWR: 89 LGA: 88 JFK: 85 ISP: 84 New Brunswick: 90 BLM: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 89 ACY: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 At 89 on the hour. park and LGA are at 88. Think EWR hit 90 will check at next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Finally have a tropical system to track. The odds for survival aren't great but it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 Think EWR hit 90 will check at next update I think the park will hit 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Up to 92F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Up to 91F here. A nice, surprising 0.41" fell early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I think the park will hit 90 The downpours this morning made me doubt it, but its looking like a good chance now. 90 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The tropical system should survive fine the next 5-7 days. Most of the latest guidance brings it up to a low end cat 2 in five days with steady strengthening. After that it will all come down to the strength of the building ridge to the North. The global models want to bend the track back to the West, Southwest which would bring a landfall into the Lesser Antilles this weekend. Thereafter, a track into the Eastern Caribbean would bring almost certain death with the near record shear occurring as a result of the El Nino. If the system is allowed to escape a bit North, the 00z EPS mean maintains the ridge all the way into the Bahamas opening the door for a Southeast US impact. The third option is that it runs a ground trying to island hop and the system eventually gets torn apart by the mountains in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 KNYC hit 90. LGA 89 EWR 91. The wind stayed SE at EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Breezy with occasional thunder. Hoping to get under one of these tiny, slow-moving cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Breezy with occasional thunder. Hoping to get under one of these tiny, slow-moving cells. Storms popping up north of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Clouds building in from sw http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Hot tamale...feels hotter than yesterday...dog days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Storms popping up north of the city 12z Rgem had these storms in almost the exact location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 12z Rgem had these storms in almost the exact location. Canadian programmers doing well.. Very robust short term model of late cold and warm season. Hit 92 here and staying put at that since one mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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