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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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It would be nice if that 12z Euro Mid-Atlantic rainfall jackpot nudges further north over time to

help ease the Long Island drought conditions.

JFK running well below normal April through July with the driest May on record

4/15...1.61....-2.26

5/15...0.46....-3.48

6/15...4.99...+1.13

7/15...2.31....-1.77

The GGEM and GFS are wet for the entire region.
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The GGEM and GFS are wet for the entire region.

 

It was good to see the 0z Euro track the heavier rains a little further north. Hopefully, Long Island can pick up some

much needed rainfall. All our recent dry periods ended with heavy rainfalls. It would just be nice if that occurred

sooner rather than later for the brown vegetation around here.

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What type of rain is in the forecast?

What are the forecasted temps for the latter part of the week?

 

Mon - tue : hot continues..  

Wed : should see the current heat spell end, even wed could be cloudy later in the pm. If mostly sunny, could see a 90 in the hotter spots.  

Thu: kind of a transition day but look for clouds and temps near 80. 

Friday morning/afternoon look cloudy and very wet.  I would doubt temps get much past 75 in that setup.  

The weekend looks dry Sat/Sun with temps below normal (80 - 85 range).

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Euro is pretty wet for Friday, over a inch for the area!

 

06z GFS also shifted the steady/heavier rain north into the area 0.5 - 1.0 now.  Id go with the consistent ECM. Friday looks like the very wet day following a dry period.  Weekend appears salvaged from this very early vantage point.

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Well I have been ignoring this North trend on the models for the last day or so but trends will need to be monitored for a possible super soaker during the Thursday/Friday time period. The ECMWF is still showing a very potent vort max crossing the area and driving the development of a surface low. The system will have decent mid-upper level jet support and lower level winds also increase out ahead of the low track. 

 

The 00z ECMWF had 1.50-3.00" of rain for the area with surface temperatures stuck in the 60's on Friday. 

 

The 00z GGEM had 2-4" of rain for the area but is a bit more optimistic getting the low further North which gets us into the 70's by Friday afternoon. 

 

As you might expect, the GFS is a southeast outlier, but the system did shift significantly further NW on the 06z run versus the 00z run. 

 

The 06z GEFS mean was also further NW and wetter than 00z. 

 

Lastly, the 06z DGEX was in agreement on a very wet system. Not that it really adds anything to the mix, but nice to see some agreement.

 

The system is still in the day 3-5 range so confidence is still low, especially with it being August, but the players are on the field and it makes sense with current El Nino in progress.

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I would really like to see those heaviest 3" totals verify on Long island for the sake of the greenery around here.

We need it so bad out here. Going from moderate to severe drought. So I hope it rains. Also I'm gojn to spilsh splash friday an nothing is better then going to a water park in the rain!!! No crowds!!!

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